My research focuses on development economics, international trade, climate change, and economic geography in developing countries, particularly Ethiopia and Sub-Saharan Africa. I study how trade policy, infrastructure, climate shocks, and spatial inequalities affect firm productivity, women’s labor market outcomes, industrial development, and the geography of violence in low-income countries. My work also incorporates GIS, satellite imagery, and spatial data analysis to examine the economic impacts of roads, drought, conflict, and environmental change.
with Pavel Chakraborty (University of Bath)
Working Paper
Abstract
We study how trade liberalization and transport connectivity jointly shape women’s employment in a low-income economy. We combine Ethiopia’s manufacturing census (1996–2010) with industry-level input tariffs and a geo-referenced road network measuring access to the country’s main international trade gateway. Input tariff reductions increase both the share and number of female workers, with stronger responses in better-connected locations. At mean road connectivity, a 10% tariff reduction raises the female employment share by 1.5 percentage points and the number of female workers by 8.4%. This is driven by greater female hiring rather than displacement of male workers. The response is stronger where female labour is underutilized, among firms with greater female ownership, and in initially female-intensive industries, pointing to both supply- and demand-side channels. Tariff reductions also increase female employment in informal manufacturing, but roads do not amplify this response. Instead, female ownership responds more strongly in poorly connected locations, pointing to distinct margins of adjustment: wage employment in better-connected markets and self-employment in less-connected ones. Overall, our results underscore that domestic transport connectivity shapes both the gender incidence of trade liberalization and how women benefit from it.
with Lorenza Rossi (Lancaster) & Pavel Chakraborty (Bath)
Working Paper
Abstract
How do climate shocks propagate beyond agriculture and affect industrial productivity in low-income economies? Using panel data from Ethiopia’s Large and Medium Manufacturing Industry Survey (2008–2018) matched with drought exposure measures from the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we estimate the impact of climate shocks on manufacturing firms’ Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Exploiting the 2011 La Niña drought and the 2016 El Niño event, we implement the Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) staggered difference-in-differences estimator with doubly-robust inverse probability weighting and TFP estimated following Levinsohn and Petrin (2003). We document three key findings: (i) drought reduces firm TFP by 2–3.5 percent, with effects emerging gradually and persisting over time; (ii) non-agri-dependent firms respond earlier, primarily through demand and financial channels, while agri-dependent firms exhibit delayed effects consistent with slower supply-chain transmission; and (iii) repeated drought exposure amplifies productivity losses non-linearly, with the 2016 drought generating larger and more persistent effects than the 2011 episode. In terms of mechanism, drought-induced labour productivity disruptions and raw material shortages are the primary transmission channels, compounded by declining rural demand and limited firm adjustment capacity. Our findings provide the first firm-level evidence that climate shocks impose substantial and persistent productivity costs on manufacturing firms in Sub-Saharan Africa and highlight the importance of resilience-oriented industrial policies.
Sole authored
R & R
Abstract
Do historical climate shocks shape the geography of foreign investment in low-income countries, and through which channels do these effects persist? This paper examines the long-run impact of the 1983–84 Ethiopian famine—one of the twentieth century’s most severe climate disasters—on the contemporary location of foreign direct investment (FDI). Combining geo-referenced firm-level data from the Ethiopian Statistical Service with high-resolution Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) data and three waves of the LSMS–ISA (2011-2015), I estimate a fixed-effects conditional logit model exploiting within-region variation in historical drought exposure. The results show that drought-exposed communities are 10–14 percentage points less likely to host a foreign firm three decades later, with the effect rising to 15.7 percentage points under severe drought conditions (SPEI = 1.5). A two-step mediation analysis identifies human capital as the dominant channel: affected cohorts complete 1.6 to 2.8 fewer years of schooling, and each additional schooling year increases the probability of FDI by six percentage points. The penalty is attenuated for joint ventures and dissipates after the 2012 Investment Proclamation reforms. These findings demonstrate that climate shocks cast long economic shadows on the spatial distribution of capital through the persistent scarring of early-life human development, and imply that climate resilience and human-capital investment should be treated as complementary pillars of FDI-attraction policy in low-income economies.
Work in Progress
Do roads spread conflict? We study the Ethiopian road-building boom (1996–2024), one of the largest in sub-Saharan Africa, and ask whether new and upgraded roads propagate organized violence across space. We assemble a novel panel of 517 cells on a custom 50 km × 50 km grid covering Ethiopia, observed annually, linking Ethiopian Roads Administration data on road length and quality, geocoded ACLED conflict events, and geographic covariates from PRIO-GRID. Because roads are placed where conflict may already be brewing, we identify the causal effect with a forward-looking Callaway–Sant'Anna staggered difference-in-differences design that relates conflict one year ahead to first paving, breaking within-year simultaneity. First paving sharply raises subsequent conflict on every margin: the probability of any conflict rises by about 30 percentage points, log fatalities by roughly 1.21 log points, and the number of events by about 19% (all significant at 1%), on flat pre-trends. The effect is driven by organized, state-based violence rather than protest, and concentrates where control of territory is most valuable—near the political core and along internal borders, where 165 of 517 cells (32%) lie and the effect is two to three times larger. Transport infrastructure can diffuse rather than dampen violence.
Working Paper
Abstract
Land tenure security is increasingly recognized as a critical institutional factor for enhancing climate resilience, yet evidence on how institutional and ecological factors jointly affect the adoption of diverse climate adaptation investments remains limited. We investigate the causal effects of land security on short-, medium-, and long-term climate adaptation investments among Ethiopian smallholders. Using nationally representative panel data and a correlated random effect–instrumental variable (CRE–IV) approach, we estimate the impacts of both formal and perceived land rights on various climate adaptation practices. The findings confirm that formal land rights significantly enhance investments that strengthen adaptive capacity and resilience, including crop rotation, watershed management, and agroforestry. However, these effects are substantially stronger in areas with better vegetation greenness. Gender-disaggregated analysis also reveals that both men and women holders benefit from land rights, albeit through different pathways and with varying magnitudes. Further, perceived land rights have a significant effect on agroforestry practices. Our findings conclude that secured land rights are crucial for promoting sustainable land use practices, particularly in areas with better ecological conditions.
PhD Dissertation
(PhD in Economics, University of Milan and University of Pavia, 2024)
Essays on Drought Impact: Firm and FDI in Low-Income Countries. Link: https://iris.unipv.it/handle/11571/1494541
External Debt–Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from the Ethiopian Economy, Economics, Management and Sustainability, 5(2), 6–27, 2020 DOI: 10.14254/jems.2020.5-2.1
Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Evidence from an ARDL Bounds Test Approach, Dynamic Econometric Models, 19, 57–84, 2019 DOI: 10.12775/DEM.2019.004
The Inter-linkage Between Institutional Quality and Economic Development in Selected African Countries: A Panel Data Approach, Horn of African Journal of Business and Economics (HAJBE), 1(2), 293–314, 2019