Research

WORKING PAPERS

When the Markets Get CO.V.I.D: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion with M. J. Arteaga-Garavito, M. M. Croce and P. Farroni   [Data Website] forthcoming, Journal of Financial Economics

We quantify the exposure of major financial markets to news shocks about global contagion risk accounting for local epidemic conditions. For a wide cross section of countries, we construct a novel data set  comprising (i) announcements related to COVID19, and (ii) high-frequency data on epidemic news diffused through Twitter. Across several classes of financial assets, we provide novel empirical evidence about {financial dynamics (i) around epidemic announcements, (ii) at a daily frequency, and (iii) at an intra-daily frequency.} Formal estimations based on both contagion data and social media activity about COVID19 confirm that the market price of contagion risk is very significant. We conclude that prudential policies aimed at mitigating either global contagion or local diffusion may be extremely valuable.

I investigate the link between firms' voluntary disclosure strategies on social media and their equity returns. I construct a novel and comprehensive database of over 7 million tweets posted by S&P 1500 firms and use text analysis methods to assess the effect of corporate tweets on announcement returns. I find evidence consistent with firms using the timing, tone, and content of tweets strategically. Firms with negative earnings surprises have higher announcement returns when they tweet about financial news, suggesting that firms can use social media to bolster their stock prices during periods of poor performance. This result holds mainly for firms with higher retail investor ownership, consistent with social media being a primary information source for investors with a high cost of information acquisition and processing.

PUBLICATION

Cover your assets: non-performing loans and coverage ratios in Europe with L. Alessi, B. Bruno, E. Carletti and K. Neugebauer

Volume 36, Issue 108, October 2021, Pages 685–733. Economic Policy 

We analyse the determinants of coverage ratios and their components [non-performing loans (NPLs) and loss loan reserves] in a large sample of European banks. We find that bank-specific factors, particularly credit risk variables (including forward-looking indicators) and capitalization, matter the most. Coverage ratios adjust insufficiently as asset quality deteriorates, except in high-NPL banks. Capitalization has a positive effect on coverage ratio, pointing to a complementarity between the two buffers. At the country level, specific macroprudential levers and developing NPL secondary markets enhance coverage ratios. Our findings emphasize the importance of micro oversight and call for more stringent macro policies in high-NPL countries. 

WORK IN PROGRESS

Ownership and Risk Taking in Banks  with E. Carletti, A. Ellul, A. Manconi

This paper provides empirical evidence on the effects of both outside and inside ownership on bank risk-taking and performance. Much of the analysis in this paper focuses on inferences based on instrumental variables (IV) approaches. To implement our IV approach we build a new database of enforcement actions and consent orders against banks to isolate the exogenous change in ownership and to examine whether ownership structure affects bank risk. We focus on ownership changes around enforcement action announcements and investigate the classic conflicts between bank managers and diversified owners.