Impact of the Election on Environmental NGOs

Previous scholarship indicates that legislation that restricts NGOs, like the Foreign Agents Law, has serious consequences for  NGOs. Specifically, this type of legislation often creates an atmosphere of “shrinking civil space,” where the majority of NGOs are compelled to abide by the government’s legislation. In theory, Georgia’s shrinking civil space resulting from the Foreign Agents Law could have pressured Georgian ENGOs to register as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power”.  Georgian Dream’s unofficial and official statements, which portray NGOs as threats to Georgia’s sovereignty, may have applied more pressure on these ENGOs by further contributing to an environment of shrinking civil space

According to the literature, environments of shrinking civil space and the decisions ENGOs make as a result of that shrinking space tend to negatively impact ENGOs' ability to operate effectively. Some NGOs will choose to disband rather than function under the restrictions. Others may try to continue to function without adhering to the law only to be sunk by noncompliance fees or consequences (Fransen et. al, 2021). Even if an ENGO opts to follow the restrictive law, significant obstacles remain. To avoid being targeted by the state, ENGOs operating in an environment of reduced civil space often opt to pivot away from efforts at agenda setting, which is a key aspect of operations for many ENGOs (Fransen et al, 2021). Without ENGOs fulfilling the important role of lobbying for new legislation, countries are more likely to fall behind on critical environmental policy. Finally, regular interactions with the state can become tense or overtly hostile, as members of the ruling party are less inclined to trust ENGOs (Fink-Hafner and Baumen, 2023). This can make even simple efforts at policy enforcement and implementation difficult for ENGOs to assist with. Based on this theoretical framework, Georgian ENGOs are in danger of losing their effectiveness or even disbanding because of the Foreign Agents Law. If Georgia Dream remains in power and continues to pass restrictive legislation, the negative implications for ENGOs only continue to increase. 

A decrease in ENGO effectiveness in Georgia is threatening because of the country’s current environmental conditions. Georgia is subject to a variety of environmental crises. Biodiversity loss is one example of Georgia's environmental concerns. It threatens Georgia's economy, food supply, and ecosystem services (“Biodiversity”, 2011). Georgia is also experiencing land degradation, including soil erosion, salinization, and loss of vegetation cover. Georgia has very limited land resources and many industries rely on those resources. As such, Georgia must balance its economic and environmental actions in order to resolve their land degradation issues. Most concerning for immediate public safety is Georgia’s increase in natural disasters. These natural disasters include floods, mudslides, rock falls, avalanches, and droughts (NEA). Considering the prevalence of environmental crises in Georgia, ENGOs and their work are of paramount importance. 

For years, ENGOs have taken on important roles in monitoring environmental quality, advocating for environmental policy, and facilitating collaboration between civil society and the state. There are various environmental NGOs and programs funded by foreign donors currently working towards increasing the number of early warning systems and the promotion of watershed and forestry conservation. With these organizations under threat, their work may be limited or even halted if Georgian ENGOs exhibit the same trends as past cases. Already, some NGOs are refusing to register and are facing serious consequences, including fines. Decreased effectiveness of ENGOs could also dampen civil society, as environmental groups often advocate for more democratic norms and overall reforms in the government. 

Considering Georgian ENGOs' importance in mitigating Georgia’s environmental crises and their impact on civil society, ENGOs are a vital structure for maintaining stability in Georgia. If ENGOs respond to the Foreign Agents Law in the way NGOs in other countries have responded to similar laws, Georgian ENGOs will likely weaken. The upcoming Georgian election has the power to absolve Georgia ENGOs from this concern by transitioning power away from Georgia Dream to a party more willing to work with civil society. If a power transition is not achieved, Georgian ENGOs will likely struggle to maintain their influence. Until the election, the NGOs of Georgia are left in suspense.