What is the role market- and bank-based debt play in the climate transition process? We present evidence that bond markets price the risk that assets held by fossil fuel firms strand, while banks in the syndicated loan market seemingly do not price this risk much. Consequently, to fulfill their financing needs fossil fuel firms increasingly rely less on bonds and more on loans. We can interpret the within-firm bond-to-loan substitution along stranding risk as a contraction in the supply of bond versus bank funding. Within the banking sector especially the big banks are willing to provide cheaper and more financing to fossil fuel firms.
The transition to a green economy strongly depends on the existence of appropriate economic incentives for agents. The loan market for car purchases is a paradigmatic example in this respect, as lenders may set credit conditions which may discourage or support the purchase of high-emission vehicles. Using car loan-level data we study whether banks adjust their lending terms and conditions in response to different shocks to the perceived environmental quality of diesel vehicles. Focusing on the impact of the diesel emissions scandal in the automobile sector in 2015 and on local policy changes regarding circulation restrictions due to air pollution, we find that bank lending particularly by captive banks may further reinforce the market and regulatory failures that led to extensive levels of pollution by the automobile sector.
Beyene, Winta, Manthos D. Delis and Steven Ongena, 2022, Disclosure of bank fossil fuel exposures, European Economy – Banks, Regulation, and the Real Sector, 21-02, 89-103.