Applications

Baumgärtner, M., & Zahner, J. (2023). Talking fragmentation away – Decoding the ’whatever it takes’ effect. Economics Letters

In 2022, the ECB introduced a new instrument designed to combat fragmentation in euro area government bond yields. To assess the ECB’s effectiveness in addressing fragmentation through existing instruments, particularly communication, we turn to a pivotal historical event – Mario Draghi’s famous “whatever it takes” speech. Widely interpreted as a commitment by the ECB to act as a lender of last resort, this speech eased tensions in bond markets. Employing state-of-the-art computational linguistics, we create an index that quantifies the ECB’s commitment to act as a lender of last resort based on this historic speech. Our index highlights the ECB’s central role in stabilizing financial markets, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty.

Hayo, B., & Zahner, J. (2023). What is that noise? Analysing sentiment-based variation in central bank communication. Economics Letters, 222, 110962.

To which degree can variation in sentiment-based indicators of central bank communication be attributed to changes in macroeconomic, financial, and monetary variables; idiosyncratic speaker effects; sentiment persistence; and random ‘noise’ ? Using the Loughran and McDonald (2011) dictionary on a text corpus containing more than 10,000 speeches and press statements, we construct sentiment-based indicators for the ECB and the Fed. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that sentiment is strongly persistent and influenced by speaker-specific effects. With about 80% of the variation in sentiment being due to noise, our findings cast doubt on the reliability of conclusions based on variation in dictionary-based indicators.

Goutsmedt, A., Sergi, F., Claveau, F., & Fontan, C. (2023). The Different Paths of Central Bank Scientization: The Case of the Bank of England.

This article investigates the scientization process in central banks, using the Bank of England (BoE) as a case study. It proposes an ideal type of the scientized central bank, which is tied to the core idea that the scientization of an organization grows with its willingness to contribute to the relevant science. We derive from this ideal type empirically observable characteristics regarding leadership and staff profiles, use of internal resources, composition of external networks, and publication and discursive outputs. The BoE is then contrasted to this ideal type of a thoroughly scientized central bank. The empirical material includes archives and interviews as well as three databases providing quantitative information from 1980 to 2019. We find that the path towards scientization is strategically motivated and varied, influenced by factors such as balancing the imperatives of expert credibility and informing policymaking. Based on this empirical analysis, we underline the multifaceted dynamics of the scientization process and call for more nuanced representations in the academic literature.