Radiative effects support the growth of tropical organized convective systems on various scales, including tropical intraseasonal oscillation (the Madden-Julian oscillation). As radiative heating is quickly balanced by circulation in the tropics, we examine how radiatively driven circulation moistens the intraseasonal oscillation and maintain convective activity using observation-derived data products.
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Organization of deep convection largely affects how precipitation is distributed both spatially and temporally in the tropics, and have great implication of radiative feedbacks. A global examination of tropical convection types is performed using satellite radar products. Preliminary results show that the activity of organized deep convection is not only controlled by thermodynamical factors such as sea surface temperature (SST) and column saturation fraction, but also by vertical wind shear. Strong control of convective organization and associated high cloud cover and atmospheric longwave radiative heating by low-level wind shear suggests a potential importance of mesoscale dynamics in affecting the large-scale climate system.
How tropical intraseasonal variability would evolve in a changing climate has great implication of hydrological cycle and weather predictability. The intensity of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is found to have a preferential increase in precipitation over circulation, which can be explained by the increasing dry static stability under a warming climate using weak-temperature-gradient approximation. The result indicates possibly weaker divergence and Rossby wave activity per amount of precipitation, implies a modification of intraseasonal tropical-extratropical teleconnection in the future.
Using CESM 1, response in cloud radiative effect to idealized forcing is found to indirectly impose a circulation change in the tropics, which in turn induces surface evaporation and ENSO-like sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. The finding suggests potential importance of accurately simulating cloud radiative feedback in climate models to projection of tropical SST pattern.
The precipitation forecast skill in the U.S. West Coast on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales in a Unified Forecast System (UFS) is found to be relatively low at the state with strong Aleutian Low (partly associated with warm ENSO) and MJO phase at 8 and 1. The erroneously persisting constructive interference of the MJO teleconnection and the Aleutian Low is found to produce falsely strong precipitation 3 weeks ahead in the U.S. West Coast.
Spending a majority of time sitting in office, I was fortunate to help gathering data directly in field by participating in Prediction of Rainfall Campaign in the Pacific (PRECIP) at Hsinchu, Taiwan. I assisted in communication with the Central Weather Bureau and domestic participants, launching soundings, and operating an S-Pol radar. The data helps understanding how extreme rainfall is established, with a focus under the synoptic transition between east-Asian Mei-Yu season and typhoon season.
As a recently update, I will participate in the PICCOLO - ORCHESTRA field campaign at Barbados!