Survival and Selection under Incomplete Insurance: Evidence from Chile’s Mixed Public-Private Health System
with Dominique Araya
Status: Draft coming soon
Abstract. This paper investigates the mortality effects of private hospital use among government-insured patients. We develop and estimate a marginal treatment effect framework for a binary outcome that allows for both selection heterogeneity and treatment effect heterogeneity. Using eight years of nationwide hospital discharge data from Chile and a continuous instrumental variable derived from variation in public voucher subsidies, we find large heterogeneity in treatment effects: for some patients, private hospital admission increases survival probabilities by up to 10-15 percentage points. Patient self-selection is shaped by two opposing forces: while Roy sorting drives patients with high potential survival gains toward private hospitals, financial risk deters them from doing so. Because private hospitals hold a capacity advantage in intensive care, comparing self-selection with centralized transfers highlights the potential of relaxing financial barriers to enable positive Roy sorting to realize the survival advantage of private care.
The Waiting and Matching Quality Trade-off in Kidney Transplants
Summary. This paper leverages a particular policy in Chile that permits private hospitals that procure deceased donor organs from remote areas to retain one of the two kidneys they receive, prioritizing their own patients. As a result, patients in need of kidney transplantation face different waiting times and matching quality between public and private hospitals: the national list has a longer wait time but better matching quality due to a greater market "thickness" for available kidneys and transplant candidates, whereas the private hospital list has a shorter wait time but lower matching quality. I quantify the tradeoff by comparing the life-years from transplantation between the two sectors, using distance to dialysis centers as an instrumental variable for the binary choice between dialysis and transplantation.