WORKING PAPERS

Kane, J.,  Jangili, S., Sandor, J., and Sgorlon, V. “Evolution by National Election? Partisanship, Voting Behavior, and Sentiments toward Marginalized Groups” 

R&R at Politics, Groups, and Identities (alphabetically-ordered authorship).


Abstract: Given partisanship’s powerful role in the U.S., a wealth of research has sought to identify its determinants. Toward this end, scholars have long highlighted (1) social identities and (2) group sentiments toward marginalized groups as two factors that shape citizens’ partisanship. Yet recent research has begun to “flip the causal arrow,” exploring how partisanship can influence social identities. In this Letter, we investigate one mechanism by which partisanship might also affect group sentiments. Using a well-powered, pre-registered experiment featuring historically marginalized groups, we test whether manipulating information about these groups’ voting behavior in presidential elections can affect partisans’ sentiments toward these groups. Across multiple outcome measures, we consistently find small, non-significant effects for each target group, irrespective of the respondents’ party. These null findings are important, suggesting that, despite partisanship’s enormous influence, Americans’ sentiments toward marginalized groups resist “evolving” even when these groups increasingly help their party’s electoral prospects.


Sgorlon, V. “When do voters punish the corrupt? Evidence from scandals in Brazil” 

Under review. 


Abstract: While democratic theory assumes citizens sanction malfeasance, empirical evidence remains mixed. I combine a quasi-natural experiment with survey analysis to exploit Brazil’s Operation Lava Jato—as an information shock—to test the link between corruption and voter behavior. First, analysis of survey data fielded immediately after a scandal identifies the behavioral mechanism. I show that reported levels of information about the scandal drive voters to punish exposed candidates in hypothetical election scenarios. Second, using a Doubly Robust Difference-in-Differences estimator on a two-election panel (2014–2018), I estimate the effect of public exposure of candidates on real-life electoral outcomes. I find that exposed candidates suffered penalties in all electoral outcomes, experiencing significant declines in vote share and lower reelection probabilities than their non-exposed peers. These findings indicate that Lava Jato had a positive influence on democracy by encouraging electoral accountability both in hypothetical and real elections, consistent with the information hypothesis.


SELECTED WORK IN PROGRESS 

Urbina, I. and Sgorlon, V. “Fractured Trust: The Spillover Effects of Police Violence on Political Trust and Democracy” (revisions).


Abstract: How does police violence impact citizens’ trust in democratic institutions? This paper explores the influence of police interactions, particularly through indirect exposure to violence and direct victimization, on citizens’ political trust. We conducted two studies: an observational analysis using LAPOP data across various Latin American countries and an experimental study in Brazil, examining both direct and vicarious experiences of police violence. Our results reveal that both direct experiences of police abuse and indirect exposure through media significantly erode trust in key democratic institutions such as the judiciary, legislature, and executive. This erosion of trust is mediated through decreased trust in the police and perceptions of procedural justice. Furthermore, the effects of indirect exposure are moderated by factors such as race, partisan identity, and trait aggression personality. Overall, this research highlights the critical impact of police violence on political trust and suggests that addressing such violence is crucial for sustaining democratic legitimacy, particularly in regions experiencing democratic backsliding. 


Sgorlon, V. “The Importance of Left-Right Ideology as an Identity in Latin America” (revisions).*


Abstract: Models of partisanship as a durable social identity travel poorly to contexts where attachments are weak or absent for much of the electorate due to unstable party systems. I argue that in such contexts, ideological identity—a psychological attachment to broad ideological camps—can serve as the primary predictor of political behavior. Using panel datasets, Study 1 shows that left-right identification persists over time as well as or better than partisanship in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, but not in Mexico, which has a more stable party system. Study 2 finds that ideological group attachment (AIG) predicts vote congruence, political interest, and political engagement independently of other political identities. Study 3, a pre-registered experiment in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, randomized party ideological labels and policy: high-AIG respondents in Brazil and Chile continue to favor ingroup-labeled party profiles even when doing so requires accepting policy-incongruent platforms, and show a blunted—though not eliminated—responsiveness to policy congruence relative to low-AIG respondents. AIG thus functions as an identity-based bias that systematically pulls party evaluation toward ideological ingroups, operating independently of partisan attachment and in parallel with, rather than strictly overriding, substantive policy considerations. Together, the studies establish ideological group attachment as a more stable and behaviorally consequential identity than partisanship across countries in the region with unstable party systems.


Sgorlon, V. and Urbina, I. “Aggressive People Support the Populist: evidence from Brazil and the United States” (revisions).


Sgorlon, V. “Online Engagement, Offline Behavior: mass social media behavior as a predictor of electoral accountability” (data analysis/writing). 


Sgorlon, V. and Urbina, I. “Misperceptions of Immigrants on the Workforce: unpacking labor market concerns” (data analysis/writing).


Sgorlon, V. and Kline, R. "Ingroup Love and Outgroup Hate: Desintangling Affective Polarization in Brazil" (data collection).*


* Part of the dissertation