Virat Agrawal and Neeraj Sood (2026)."Why Medicaid has drifted from its mission — and how to fix It." The Hill
Medicaid has increasingly evolved into an all-in-one safety net by funding non-medical services, including housing — a shift driven by opaque Section 1115 waiver financing and open-ended federal matching. Evidence of meaningful savings or improved health outcomes from this off-mission spending is weak. Greater transparency and capped federal spending would help restore both Medicaid's original mission — providing healthcare to millions of low-income Americans — while reinforcing fiscal guardrails.
Virat Agrawal and Kamryn Monster (2026)."$50 Billion Won't Fix Rural Maternity Care Without State Reform." InsideSources - DC Journal
As CMS rolls out the $50 billion Rural Health Transformation Program, we argue that federal funding alone won’t fix rural maternity care unless states reform Medicaid payment and remove policy barriers that limit access to certified nurse-midwives and licensed birth centers. These reforms could help address rural maternity-care shortages while shifting appropriate low-risk pregnancies toward lower-cost, high-value settings.
Anup Malani, Virat Agrawal and Dana Goldman (2026)."The Economic Value of Americans Working One More Year." USC Schaeffer Institute
Each additional year that Americans delay retirement generates roughly $1 trillion in economic value. This estimate rests on three core inputs: approximately 3.8 million Americans leave the workforce each year at retirement ages, about $230,000 in GDP per full-time-equivalent employee, and an estimated $25,600 economic loss associated with tax revenue needed to finance retirement-related transfers for each new retiree. The calculation captures both the standard efficiency costs of taxation and the broader losses in innovation and productivity growth that can arise when taxes fall on productive workers. The estimate is conservative, with each input grounded in federal data or peer-reviewed research. The policy implication is straightforward: Retirement decisions should remain voluntary, but policies that help healthy, able Americans work longer can generate substantial economic gains for the country.
Virat Agrawal, Bryan Tysinger and Alice Chen (2026)."Long COVID Prevalence: Current Evidence." USC Schaeffer Institute.
Long COVID remains a substantial public health challenge. Using nationally representative longitudinal data from the Understanding America Study, we estimate that by spring 2023, approximately 52 million U.S. adults had experienced at least one long COVID symptom, primarily affecting working-age adults. Among those affected, more than one-third experienced symptoms for over one year, and nearly 70% reported that their symptoms limited their usual daily activities. These estimates closely align with recent artificial intelligence-based studies using multiple sources of health data, indicating that independent approaches are converging on a similar estimate of the burden of long COVID. Together, these findings underscore the growing need for effective therapies and continued surveillance to address the long-term health and economic consequences of long COVID.