Research

Abstract: This paper examines the short- and long-term effects of immigrant assimilation policies in Brazil following the Mass Migration period. I focus on the Nationalization Campaign, launched by the federal government amid rising anti-immigrant sentiment during the Great Depression and the two World Wars. Using newly assembled archival data spanning the twentieth century, I assess the impact of these policies on the educational outcomes of immigrants and their descendants, following the forced closure of hundreds of immigrant-community schools. In the short term, the campaign significantly reduced educational attainment among targeted immigrant groups across state, municipal, and individual levels. In the long term, immigrants who were school-age during the campaign attained less education over their lifetimes, with adverse effects extending into the second generation. The magnitude of these effects was mediated by the degree of cultural proximity between immigrant groups and native Brazilians. These findings underscore the enduring consequences of assimilationist policies and offer insights for contemporary debates on immigration and education policy.

Abstract: This paper investigates how social policies influence the coping strategies of vulnerable agricultural households facing climate change. In particular, we examine how the Brazilian Bolsa Família, a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program, affects relocation decisions among individuals whose incomes are directly impacted by extreme and severe droughts. Moving beyond traditional analyses based on administrative units, we track individual-level mobility using the geographical coordinates of household addresses, capturing both intra- and inter-municipal moves. These data are linked to high-resolution precipitation records from the CHIRPS dataset, with a grid size of 0.05° by 0.05° (approximately 31 km2 or 12 mi2). Using a panel of millions of individuals observed from 2015 to 2020, we find that short-distance relocations (within municipalities) are five times more common than long-distance migrations (between municipalities). Estimates from a Poisson panel model with fixed effects and time-varying controls indicate that social transfers significantly influence migration behavior. Individuals exposed to extreme droughts (top 1%) are 6% more likely to relocate, using CCT benefits to facilitate movement. In contrast, those affected by less intense but still severe droughts (top 10 to 1%) are 5% less likely to move, instead relying on the benefits to cope locally. These patterns remain robust across a range of model specifications and hold even when the analysis is restricted to benefit holders, suggesting that relocation decisions are made at the household level in these contexts. However, this buffering role of social protection also implies that vulnerable individuals are more likely to remain in areas with lower levels of socioeconomic infrastructure than their migrating peers.

Abstract: This paper examines how social policy shapes mobility responses to extreme weather events. We study Brazil's Conditional Cash Transfer program, \textit{Bolsa Família}, and its impact on the relocation decisions of vulnerable households exposed to extreme rainfall. We assemble a novel dataset linking georeferenced household and firm records to high-resolution precipitation data, climate vulnerability maps, and federally recognized disaster reports, covering 858 municipalities from 2015 to 2020. Individual-level Poisson panel estimates with fixed effects show that cash transfers significantly influence resilience strategies. Beneficiaries affected by catastrophic events striking their residence are up to 7\% less likely to relocate and more likely to remain in formal employment one year later. By contrast, beneficiaries exposed to severe events striking their workplace are up to 13\% more likely to relocate, typically through employer turnover. Relocation is primarily undertaken by household heads and tends to occur within municipal boundaries.

Abstract: We investigate long-term outcomes related to social mobility and their determinants for low-income Brazilian households. More precisely, the first cohorts of beneficiaries of the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program Bolsa Família (BFP); children aged between 7 and 16 in 2005, who are tracked for over a decade, until 2019. We use individual-level administrative data to analyze our two indicators of social mobility: (i) future emancipation from federal government social programs, and (ii) access to the formal labor market. We observe that formerly vulnerable children, beneficiaries of the CCT, find themselves in better socioeconomic conditions in adulthood. While 64 % of them, aged between 21 and 30 years in 2019, were no longer beneficiaries of federal government social programs, 45 % accessed the formal labor market at least once between 2015 and 2019. We also compare the characteristics of the formal employment they access with those of non-BFP beneficiaries during the same period. They have worse employment conditions, although better than informal positions typical of their parents. Furthermore, we investigate the association between local sociodemographic characteristics and individual social mobility. We find significant territorial heterogeneity associated with differences in better health and education infrastructures, and local economic activity.