Welcome!

I am a Graduate Programme participant in the Monetary Policy Strategy Division of the Directorate General Monetary Policy at the European Central Bank. I hold a Ph.D. in Economics from the European University Institute under the supervision of Giancarlo Corsetti and Edouard Challe. My fields of interest include macroeconomics, monetary policy, and time series econometrics.

You can find my CV here and reach me at vida.maver@ecb.europa.eu

Disclaimer: All views expressed on this site are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the ECB or the Eurosystem.

Research

Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks Across Sectors: The Case of Slovenia. Work in progress.

This paper constructs a monthly firm-level dataset from Slovenia to examine how monetary policy transmission differs across the manufacturing and services sectors and to evaluate whether disaggregated marginal-cost-based Phillips curves enhance our understanding of inflation dynamics. Using panel local projections, the findings indicate sluggish responses of labour-related costs and stronger reactions of non-labour-related costs to contractionary monetary policy shocks, with services firms responding more than their manufacturing counterparts. The paper highlights the importance of micro-level data for understanding monetary policy transmission and provides evidence of variable transmission lags. It shows that the short- to medium-term aggregate inflation response is predominantly shaped by the manufacturing sector, whereas the persistence of inflation in the long term is largely driven by the services sector. A comparison of the aggregate inflation impulse response from the full sample with that from the pre-pandemic period suggests that the Phillips curve has steepened in Slovenia during the post-pandemic era.

Commodity-driven Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Does Size Matter? (joint with P. Gomez-Gonzales, M. Jerez-Osses, J. Miranda-Pinto, and J.M. Natal). IMF working paper. Available here.

Commodities play a central yet often underappreciated role in shaping macroeconomic fluctuations across both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), with the latter exhibiting greater volatility. This paper examines how the domestic interconnectedness of the commodity sector conditions the transmission of commodity price shocks. Rather than focusing only on sectoral size, we emphasize production linkages, measured by the network-adjusted value-added share (NAVAS) of the commodity sector. Using panel local projections for OECD countries, we show that greater interconnectedness amplifies the positive effects of terms-of-trade gains on consumption while mitigating the negative effects of declines. To interpret these results, we develop a small open economy model with production networks. The model highlights how commodity interconnectedness strengthens wealth channels but dampens real wage channels, shaping the overall macroeconomic response. Our findings underscore the importance of network structures in explaining commodity shock propagation and the heightened volatility observed in EMDEs.

This paper served as the foundation for the Commodity Special Feature in Chapter 1 of the IMF's World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim, International Monetary Fund, October 2025.

This paper was also published as a SUERF Policy Brief, No. 1422, 2026. Available here.

Timing and Sacrifice: The Role of Phillips Curve Non-Linearity. Working paper.

This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of the changing slope of the Phillips curve and its role in shaping optimal monetary policy. Using euro area data and a factor-augmented VAR model combined with policy evaluation techniques, I show that the curve steepened in the post-pandemic period, accelerating monetary policy transmission. Building on these estimates, I evaluate how the alternative timing of policy tightening would have influenced macroeconomic outcomes in the post-COVID-19 period. To examine trade-offs in the state-contingent transmission mechanism, I distinguish between periods of inflation surge and stable inflation, applying local projections to recursively estimate policy adjustment paths. The findings resonate with a New Keynesian framework in which the Phillips curve slope varies with asymmetric quadratic price adjustment costs. In light of empirical evidence and drawing on theory, a flatter Phillips curve calls for cautious tightening measures ex ante, while a steeper curve and lower sacrifice ratio justify a stronger initial response, allowing for earlier moderation of tightening.

I presented this paper at the 25th IWH-CIREQ-GW-BOKERI Macroeconometric Workshop and at the 3rd Women in Central Banking Workshop.

Indicator Variables for Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area. (joint with I. Masten). International Journal of Sustainable Economy, 13(2), 2021. Available here.

In this paper, we model the Euro area market-based inflation expectations extracted from the inflation-linked swaps and study the macroeconomic information embedded in expected inflation. First, we estimate the Gaussian affine term structure model to decompose the forward ILS-implied inflation rate into inflation expectations and inflation risk premium at one-, two- and three-year horizons. Secondly, from a large panel of macroeconomic series, we identify the most significant indicator variables for inflation expectations using the elastic net modification of the LASSO regression. Finally, we measure the partial contributions of individual indicator variables to the changes in inflation expectations. Our findings reveal that across horizons considered inflation expectations are correlated to the measures of current inflation of the overall price level and price level of services, the unemployment rate, and the Euro exchange rate. The identified indicators provide useful information about the evolution of inflation expectations with different intensities at different horizons.

Indirect Inflation Forecasting: The Role of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area. Working paper.

This paper proposes a modeling strategy that leverages core expected inflation without the inflation risk premium to enhance the accuracy of inflation forecasts. It uses market-based measures of inflation expectations derived from the yield curve of inflation-linked swap rates, applying the affine term structure model estimation methodology by Joslin et al. (2011). The paper first examines whether inflation expectations, adjusted for the inflation risk premium, have predictive power for realized inflation and then compares the accuracy of direct inflation forecasts with indirect forecasts through inflation expectations. The three-pass regression filter procedure by Kelly & Pruitt (2015) is employed to extract the most relevant factors driving both calculated inflation expectations and inflation itself. Using these estimated factors, the paper focuses on forecasting euro area inflation over the medium to long term, evaluating different model specifications. The findings demonstrate that the proposed alternative modeling strategy provides more accurate inflation forecasts over policy-relevant horizons than those using the target variable’s estimated 3PRF factors. It could thus offer valuable insights for policymakers, improving the efficacy of inflation forecasting.

You can find a policy article based on this paper published in the Slovenian journal of Money and Banking, Bančni vestnik, here.

Policy Publications

Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and Commodity-Driven Macroeconomic Fluctuations. (joint with C. Bogmans, P. Gomez-Gonzalez, J. Miranda-Pinto, J.M. Natal, and A. Paloschi). World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim. International Monetary Fund, October 2025. Available here.

New technologies using various forms of artificial intelligence (AI) have developed significantly in the last few years. While also central banks have started to embrace AI, the literature has barely started to assess its implications for monetary policy. In this Brief we offer a first conceptual discussion about how the spreading of AI in the economy may affect this central bank core policy. We distinguish indirect effects on the stance of monetary policy through changes in macroeconomic conditions from direct effects on monetary policy transmission. While the multiplicity of factors is complex and makes overall predictions hard, the analytical capacity of central banks should equip them well with overcoming any monetary policy challenges associated with the “AI revolution”.

Implications of Artificial Intelligence for Monetary Policy - A First Conceptual Assessment. (joint with P. Hartmann). SUERF Policy Brief, No. 1080, 2025. Available here.

Teaching

Statistics and Econometrics 3: Time Series Econometrics Evaluations.

Teaching Assistant to Prof. Jesús Bueren - EUI - PhD compulsory course - Spring 2024.

Empirical Finance

Guest lecture - University of Ljubljana: School of Economics and Business - Master's compulsory course - Spring 2021

Other

The picture on the left shows my hometown, Kamnik, a medieval town at the foot of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps. The picture on the right shows our capital, Ljubljana, a vibrant green city along the Ljubljanica River, known for its iconic dragon symbol.
Slovenia is a small country in Central Europe where sport is such an important part of national identity that we celebrate a dedicated Day of Slovenian Sport each year on September 23.
The official language is Slovene, notable for its unique use of the dual grammatical form, which distinguishes between singular, plural, and pairs. You can read more about Slovenia here.

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