We interpret M&A deals in Western Europe during the 2010s as the equilibrium of a matching model. Merger surplus arises from complementarities between multiple firm pre-merger characteristics. Large, productive firms prefer to merge with similarly productive but smaller partners, suggesting positive complementarity in productivities and negative cross complementarity between productivity and scale. We use post-merger data to show that estimated complementarities are strong predictors of merged firm performance. Our results inform the empirical relevance of different theories of mergers.

This paper identifies a credit-supply contraction that arises endogenously after trade liberalization. Banks with loan portfolios concentrated in sectors exposed to competition from China face an increase in non-performing loans after China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. As a result, they reduce the supply of credit to firms, irrespective of the firm’s sector of operation. This cut in credit translates into lower employment, investment, and output. Through this mechanism, the financial channel amplifies the shock to firms already hit by import competition from China and passes it on to firms in sectors expected to expand upon trade liberalization.

Leaving the EU will reshape the UK's economic relations with the rest of the world. This paper summarizes the findings of recent research studying the UK's role in the global economy, and the con- sequences of Brexit for UK trade, investment, and living standards. We emphasize that international integration affects investment and labour flows as well as trade in goods and services. There are important interdependencies between different forms of integration that should be accounted for when evaluating policy changes. Brexit is likely to make the UK poorer by reducing trade and investment flows, but the magnitude of the economic decline will depend upon the nature of the UK's post‐Brexit economic relations with the EU and the rest of the world. We conclude by considering options for UK‐EU relations after Brexit and how the UK should approach future trade negotiations. 

Using firm-level data, we document two new facts regarding intrafirm trade and the activities of the foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational corporations. First, intrafirm trade is concentrated among a small number of large affiliates within large multinational corporations; the median affiliate ships nothing to the rest of the corporation. Second, we find that the input-output coefficient linking the parent’s and affiliate’s industries of operation — a characteristic commonly associated with production fragmentation — is not related to a corresponding intrafirm flow of goods. 

This paper analyzes the firm’s choice between serving a foreign market through exports or through foreign affiliate sales in an environment characterized by country-specific shocks to the cost of production. Our model predicts that country pairs with less correlated output fluctuations trade more, relative to affiliate sales, while countries with more volatile fluctuations are served relatively more by exporters than by foreign affiliates selling abroad. Using detailed data on trade from Feenstra, Romalis and Schott (2002) and affiliate sales from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, we find empirical support for our model’s predictions. 

Credit contracts in developing countries are often denominated in foreign currencies, even after many of these economies succeeded in controlling inflation. This paper proposes a new interpretation of this apparent puzzle based on the demand for insurance against real shocks: the fact that devaluations occur more frequently in adverse states of the world provides a motive for holding dollar assets. This approach implies a complementarity between the optimal monetary policy and the currency denomination of contracts. When a large proportion of liabilities is denominated in a foreign currency, the optimal exchange rate volatility is low, which reinforces the demand for dollar assets.