Cost-effectiveness of epidemic/pandemic preparedness, 30 June 2024
Farmed animals are neglected, 24 June 2024
Can a conflict cause human extinction? Yet again, not on priors, 19 June 2024
Cost-effectiveness of buying organic instead of barn eggs, 14 June 2024
Reducing the nearterm risk of human extinction is not astronomically cost-effective?, 9 June 2024
I bet Greg Colbourn 10 k€ that AI will not kill us all by the end of 2027, 4 June 2024
titotal on AI risk scepticism (linkpost), 30 May 2024
Cost-effectiveness of School Plates, 25 May 2024
Brian Tomasik on cooperation and peace (linkpost), 20 May 2024
Anarchist Theory FAQ by Bryan Caplan (linkpost), 15 May 2024
Dispersion in the extinction risk predictions made in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament, 10 May 2024
Imitation Learning is Probably Existentially Safe (linkpost), 30 April 2024
Animals in Cost-Benefit Analysis (linkpost), 25 April 2024
Saving lives in normal times is better to improve the longterm future than doing so in catastrophes?, 20 April 2024
Concepts of existential catastrophe (linkpost), 15 April 2024
Should Open Philanthropy build detailed quantitative models which estimate global catastrophic risk?, 10 April 2024
Brian Tomasik on personal effectiveness (linkpost), 5 April 2024
Should the main text of the write-ups of Open Philanthropy’s large grants be longer than 1 paragraph?, 31 March 2024
Crises reveal centralisation (crosspost), 26 March 2024
Helping animals or saving human lives in high income countries is arguably better than saving human lives in low income countries?, 21 March 2024
Cost-effectiveness of The Introductory EA Program and 80,000 Hours’ 1-on-1 program, 16 March 2024
Marginal value (or lack thereof) of voting, 11 March 2024
Supervolcanoes tail risk has been exaggerated? (linkpost), 6 March 2024
Marginal Revolution University's courses and series (linkpost), 1 March 2024
Nuclear war tail risk has been exaggerated?, 25 February 2024
Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters (linkpost), 20 February 2024
Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley on Barriers to Bioweapons (linkpost), 15 February 2024
How much pressure do you feel against externally expressing views which do not conform to those of your manager or organisation?, 10 February 2024
Will scaling work? (crosspost), 4 February 2024
Cost-effectiveness of restricted donations, 3 February 2024
Brian Tomasik on charity (linkpost), 30 January 2024
Can a war cause human extinction? Not on priors, 25 January 2024
Some thoughts on moderation in doing good (crosspost), 20 January 2024
Maintaining differential pressure gradients does not increase safety inside modern BSL-4 laboratories (linkpost), 15 January 2024
Copenhagen Consensus Center's best investment papers for the sustainable development goals (linkpost), 10 January 2024
Expected value and uncertainty without full Monte Carlo simulations, 5 January 2024
Exaggerating the risks (Part 13: Ord on Biorisk) (crosspost), 31 December 2023
A year of wins for farmed animals (crosspost), 24 December 2023
Should 80,000 Hours be more transparent about how they rank problems and careers?, 20 December 2023
My quick thoughts on donating to EA Funds' Global Health and Development Fund and what it should do, 15 December 2023
Bryan Caplan on pacifism (crosspost), 9 December 2023
Can a terrorist attack cause human extinction? Not on priors, 2 December 2023
Brian Tomasik on climate change (linkpost), 25 November 2023
Why I don’t prioritize consciousness research (crosspost), 28 October 2023
Controlling for a thinker’s big idea (crosspost), 21 October 2023
Famine deaths due to the climatic effects of nuclear war, 14 October 2023
International risk of food insecurity and mass mortality in a runaway global warming scenario (linkpost), 2 September 2023
Critique of “Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2” (crosspost), 19 August 2023
Nuclear winter scepticism (crosspost), 13 August 2023
Badness of eating farmed animals in terms of smoking cigarettes, 22 July 2023
Prior probability of this being the most important century, 15 July 2023
Will the vast majority of technological progress happen in the longterm future?, 8 July 2023
Evidence of effectiveness and transparency of a few effective giving organisations, 1 July 2023
Welfare ranges per calorie consumption, 24 June 2023
Should Our World in Data discuss wild animal welfare in the context of nature conservation?, 18 June 2023
The Meat Eater Problem (linkpost), 17 June 2023
Are we confident that superintelligent AI disempowering humans would be bad?, 10 June 2023
Quantifying and interpreting the risks of mountaineering, 3 June 2023
Do you think decreasing the consumption of animals is good/bad? Think again?, 27 May 2023
Prioritising animal welfare over global health and development?, 13 May 2023
Ukrainian nonviolent civil resistance in the face of war (linkpost), 7 May 2023
Shapley value, importance, easiness and neglectedness, 5 May 2023
Global computing capacity (linkpost), 1 May 2023
More global warming might be good to mitigate the food shocks caused by abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios, 29 April 2023
My impact assessment of Giving What We Can, 15 April 2023
Metaculus’ predictions are much better than naive base rates, 11 April 2023
Increase in future potential due to mitigating food shocks caused by abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios, 28 March 2023
Exploring Metaculus’ community predictions, 24 March 2023
Scale of the welfare of various animal populations, 19 March 2023
Future benefits of mitigating food shocks caused by abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios, 4 March 2023
Counterproductive Altruism: The Other Heavy Tail (linkpost), 1 March 2023
Social impact of the donations of the 10 richest people in the world, 28 January 2023
Finding bugs in GiveWell's top charities, 23 January 2023
Why I am happy to reject the possibility of infinite worlds, 25 December 2022
What should the levels of consumption and savings be?, 18 December 2022
How should EA Forum readers vote on comments/posts/tags?, 9 December 2022
What is the relationship between EA Forum karma and impact?, 6 December 2022
Tree planting cost-effectiveness, 3 December 2022
Cost-effectiveness of operations management in high-impact organisations, 27 November 2022
Is improving the welfare of arthropods and nematodes underrated?, 8 November 2022
Open Letter Against Reckless Nuclear Escalation and Use (linkpost), 3 November 2022
How binary is longterm value?, 27 October 2022
What do you think is the probability of ethical hedonism being true?, 20 October 2022
Population with high IQ predicts real GDP better than population, 17 October 2022
Probability of extinction for various types of catastrophes, 9 October 2022
Confidence in the premises of the Repugnant Conclusion - results from a small survey, 8 October 2022
Global life satisfaction distribution, 1 October 2022
How much donations are needed to neutralise the annual x-risk footprint of the mean human?, 22 September 2022
What is your confidence in the premises of the Repugnant Conclusion?, 20 September 2022
Longterm cost-effectiveness of Founders Pledge's Climate Change Fund, 14 September 2022
Linear regressions of the annual amount granted by Open Philanthropy by focus area, 20 August 2022
Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the cost-effectiveness of its top charities?, 31 July 2022
Open Philanthropy's AI grants, 30 July 2022
Corporate campaigns for chicken welfare are 10,000 times as effective as GiveWell's Maximum Impact Fund?, 28 July 2022
Moral weights for various species and distributions, 3 July 2022
My notes on: Know what you’re optimising for | Alex Lawsen, 26 June 2022
Red-teaming Holden Karnofsky's AI timelines, 25 June 2022
My notes on: A Very Rational End of the World | Thomas Moynihan, 20 June 2022
Are poultry birds really important? Yes..., 19 June 2022
When should the inverse-variance method be applied to distributions?, 14 June 2022
Comparison between the hedonic utility of human life and poultry living time, 8 June 2022
My notes on: Searching for outliers, 3 June 2022
How to determine distribution parameters from quantiles, 30 May 2022
Types of information hazards, 29 May 2022
My notes on: Sequence thinking vs. cluster thinking, 25 May 2022
Do you have impostor syndrome?, 8 May 2022
Donations to effective climate charities needed to cancel lifetime GHG emissions, 25 April 2022
Cost-effectiveness of donating a kidney, 23 April 2022
Civilizational vulnerabilities, 22 April 2022
Summary: The Importance of End-of-Life Welfare | Browning & Veit, 22 April 2022
Summary: The Value of Giving Money to Different Groups | Toby Ord, 22 April 2022
What is the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell's top life-saving charities under total utilitarianism?, 22 April 2022
The number of seabirds and sea mammals killed by marine plastic pollution is quite small relative to the catch of fish, 19 April 2022
My notes on: Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally (even when they’re unbiased), 18 April 2022
Are there any uber-analyses of GiveWell/ACE top charities?, 16 April 2022
Summary: Evidence, cluelessness and the long term | Hilary Greaves, 15 April 2022
Cost-effectiveness of sending personal messages, 29 March 2022
PsyArXiv (January 2023)
Identifying and supporting gifted youth (I am the 2nd of 3 authors), 27 January 2023
Good judgment: rationality, superforecasting, and other psychometrics (I am the 2nd of 3 authors), 26 January 2023
Informal evidence on identifying top talent (I am the 2nd of 3 authors), 26 January 2023
SoGive (November 2021 to October 2022)
United Reformed Church Trust, 13 October 2022
Versus Arthritis, 13 October 2022
The Helping Foundation, 7 April 2022
Jewish Care, 6 April 2022
Oxford Diocesan Board Of Finance, 3 April 2022
Victoria And Albert Museum, 3 April 2022
United Bible Societies Association, 3 April 2022
The National Deaf Children's Society / Deaf Child Worldwide, 3 April 2022
World Animal Protection, 17 February 2022
The British Museum Trust, 23 November 2021
The Church Of Jesus Christ Of Latter Day Saints, 23 November 2021
Royal Opera House, 23 November 2021
Giving What We Can (June 2022)
Member Profile: Vasco Grilo, 13 June 2022
Diferencial (March 2021 to March 2022)
Será que podes fazer a diferença?, 27 March 2022
Kelly Wanser sobre se devemos intervir deliberadamente no clima, 6 July 2021
Porque devemos diminuir o consumo de produtos animais? [Parte 2], 20 May 2021
A vida que podemos salvar, 30 March 2021
AmbientalIST (April 2021 to July 2021)
Master's thesis (January 2021 to March 2021)
Preliminary Trajectory Design of a CubeSat Mission to a Near-Earth Object (abstract), CubeSat Developers Workshop, March 2021
Preliminary Trajectory Design of a CubeSat Mission to a Near-Earth Object (extended abstract), Instituto Superior Técnico, January 2021
Preliminary Trajectory Design of a CubeSat Mission to a Near-Earth Object (thesis), Instituto Superior Técnico, January 2021