Beyond the Expanding Circle: Towards a Pluralist Account of Moral Progress (crosspost), 14 August 2026
Consequentialist Foundations for Expected Utility (linkpost), 9 August 2026
Could Consciousness Be an Illusion? (linkpost), 4 August 2026
Money Pumps for Agents Who Are Ambiguity Averse or Ambiguity Seeking (linkpost), 25 July 2026
Consciousness doesn’t do that (linkpost), 20 July 2026
The missing half of AI futurism debates (crosspost), 15 July 2026
Subjective Probabilities should be Sharp (linkpost), 10 July 2026
Time to take AI consciousness seriously (crosspost), 5 July 2026
The mistake of conflating intelligence and power (crosspost), 30 June 2026
Expanding agricultural land may increase or decrease the welfare/suffering/happiness of soil invertebrates, 25 June 2026
AI Welfare Is (Frankfurtian) Bullshit (linkpost), 20 June 2026
What Is It Like to Be a Bass? Red Herrings, Fish Pain and the Study of Animal Sentience (linkpost), 15 June 2026
In Praise of Job Destruction (crosspost), 10 June 2026
Tactics In Practice: The Data Behind Corporate Outreach (linkpost), 5 June 2026
The Psychology of Authority (crosspost), 31 May 2026
Premature declarations on animal consciousness hinder progress (crosspost), 23 May 2026
The Goodhart Singularity (crosspost), 18 May 2026
The heavy-tailed valence hypothesis: the human capacity for vast variation in pleasure/pain and how to test it (linkpost), 13 May 2026
Research advice from Carl Shulman (crosspost), 8 May 2026
The pen and paper argument against computational functionalism (crosspost), 3 May 2026
Egalitarianism Is False (crosspost), 28 April 2026
List of my Favorite Named Adages, Aphorisms, Dictums, Laws, Maxims, and Rules to Live By (crosspost), 22 April 2026
The Abstraction Fallacy: Why AI Can Simulate But Not Instantiate Consciousness (linkpost), 17 April 2026
Bird-safe glass may impact arthropods much more than birds?, 12 April 2026
Infinite Dust Specks Are Worse Than One Torture (crosspost), 7 April 2026
Only What Is Alive Can Be Conscious (crosspost), 2 April 2026
Controlling the fertility of rodents may impact soil ants and termites much more than rodents?, 28 March 2026
Chicken welfare reforms may impact soil ants and termites much more than chickens?, 23 March 2026
Consciousness will slip through our fingers (crosspost), 18 March 2026
Estimation of the benefits of accelerating welfare reforms, 13 March 2026
Digging In Your Heels (crosspost), 8 March 2026
Are you overestimating the importance of the probability of sentience?, 3 March 2026
How I read studies (crosspost), 26 February 2026
All pains are comparable?, 21 February 2026
Consider advocating for furnished cages instead of cage-free aviaries?, 16 February 2026
Concepts to improve your thinking (linkpost), 11 February 2026
The shrimp bet: When big numbers outsprint the evidence (crosspost), 6 February 2026
Dwarkesh Patel's thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025) (crosspost), 1 February 2026
Unfalsifiable stories of doom (crosspost), 27 January 2026
Does the Animal-Rights Movement Encourage Wilderness Preservation? (linkpost), 22 January 2026
If Anything Changes, All Value Dies? (crosspost), 17 January 2026
Metabolic rate and welfare of animal populations, trees, and microorganisms, 12 January 2026
Epoch AI's top 10 Data Insights and Gradient Updates of 2025 (crosspost), 7 January 2026
The metabolic rate of the biosphere and its components (linkpost), 2 January 2026
Benjamin Jones' review of "Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?" (crosspost), 26 December 2025
What would you do to increase the welfare of sentient soil animals and microorganisms if nothing else was sentient?, 20 December 2025
Cost-benefit analysis of my vaccination against the flu, 15 December 2025
Most Externalities are Solved with Technology, Not Coordination (crosspost), 10 December 2025
The Conscious Nematode: Exploring Hallmarks of Minimal Phenomenal Consciousness in Caenorhabditis Elegans (linkpost), 5 December 2025
AGI Will Not Make Labor Worthless (crosspost), 30 November 2025
Benchmark Scores = General Capability + Claudiness (crosspost), 25 November 2025
Should Sinergia Animal be credited for helping Alibem’s piglets?, 20 November 2025
Prioritise soil animals over farmed invertebrates?, 15 November 2025
When to Suppress Speech (crosspost), 10 November 2025
Think Globally, Act Irrationally: Recycling (crosspost), 5 November 2025
Pre-Sputnik Earth-Orbit Glints (crosspost), 31 October 2025
More animal farming increases animal welfare if soil animals have negative lives?, 26 October 2025
Externalities, Population and Climate (crosspost), 21 October 2025
What About The Horses? (crosspost), 16 October 2025
Total number of neurons and welfare of animal populations, 11 October 2025
Break-even analysis of zinc supplementation during colds, 6 October 2025
What If We Assumed That All Animals Are Conscious? (crosspost), 1 October 2025
Giving multiplier of Giving What We Can, 26 September 2025
Increasing the welfare of soil animals will remain much more cost-effective than increasing digital welfare over at least the next few decades?, 21 September 2025
Positive Wild Animal Welfare (linkpost), 16 September 2025
Why I Prefer Public Conversations (crosspost), 11 September 2025
Effects of Farmed Animal Advocacy Messaging on Attitudes Towards Policies and Decisions Affecting Wild Animal Suffering (crosspost), 6 September 2025
I bet superforecaster David Manheim 2 k$ that the unemployment rate in the United States in 2027 will be lower than 8 %, 1 September 2025
They May as Well Grow on Trees (crosspost), 27 August 2025
Cost-effectiveness of electrically stunning rainbow trout, 22 August 2025
Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow (crosspost), 17 August 2025
Should I have been asked to stop posting about soil animals on Hive’s Slack?, 12 August 2025
Saving human lives cheaply is the most cost-effective way of increasing animal welfare?, 7 August 2025
Some Monumental News (crosspost), 2 August 2025
How to be more agentic (crosspost), 18 July 2025
Arithmetic is an underrated world-modeling technology (crosspost), 8 July 2025
Core Concepts: Assessing welfare (crosspost), 3 July 2025
Animal farming impacts soil nematodes, mites, and springtails hugely more than directly affected animals?, 28 June 2025
Wild animal suffering: An introduction (crosspost), 23 June 2025
In Defense of "Sweatshops" (crosspost), 18 June 2025
Does AI Progress Have a Speed Limit? (crosspost), 13 June 2025
The Seven Laws of Declinism (crosspost), 8 June 2025
Cost-effectiveness accounting for soil nematodes, mites, and springtails, 3 June 2025
Individuation is a Key Challenge in Animal Welfare Technology (crosspost), 29 May 2025
Datasets that change the odds you exist (crosspost), 24 May 2025
Where’s my ten minute AGI? (crosspost), 19 May 2025
People Barely Care About Relative Income (crosspost), 14 May 2025
Chicken welfare reforms may be beneficial or harmful accounting for effects on wild arthropods?, 9 May 2025
Why "controlling for a variable" doesn't (usually) work (crosspost), 4 May 2025
Moravec’s paradox and its implications (crosspost), 29 April 2025
The Case for Insect Consciousness (crosspost), 24 April 2025
An Introduction to the Problem of Authority (crosspost), 19 April 2025
Break-even analysis of D3, long-chain omega-3, and multivitamin-multimineral supplementation, 14 April 2025
Wild Animal Initiative's research in 2024 (crosspost), 9 April 2025
Is it 3 Years, or 3 Decades Away? Disagreements on AGI Timelines (linkpost), 4 April 2025
Pigou's Dial (crosspost), 25 March 2025
Cage-free egg production and real gross domestic product per capita, 20 March 2025
The Selfish Machine (crosspost), 15 March 2025
Yes, Shrimp Matter (crosspost), 5 March 2025
Cost-effectiveness of Veganuary and School Plates, 28 February 2025
Expected value of rejecting a job offer when there are other ongoing applications, 23 February 2025
Effective giving initiatives should not assume the best animal and human welfare interventions are equally cost-effective?, 18 February 2025
Rich and Poor: How Things Work (crosspost), 13 February 2025
My answers to Animal Charity Evaluators’ questions about cost-effectiveness analyses, 8 February 2025
Insecticide-treated nets significantly harm mosquitoes, but one can easily offset this?, 3 February 2025
Migraine studies, 29 January 2025
Cost-effectiveness of the fish welfare interventions recommended by Ambitious Impact, and Fish Welfare Initiative’s farm program, 24 January 2025
Maximising expected utility follows from self-evident premises? (linkpost), 19 January 2025
Cost-effectiveness of paying farmers to use more humane pesticides to decrease the suffering of wild insects, 14 January 2025
Experts' AI timelines are longer than you have been told? (linkpost), 9 January 2025
Why the New Administration Should Consider Farm Animal Welfare (crosspost), 4 January 2025
Break-even analysis of creatine supplementation, 29 December 2024
GiveWell may have made 1 billion dollars of harmful grants, and Ambitious Impact incubated 8 harmful organisations via increasing factory-farming?, 22 December 2024
Advocacy for egg replacement solutions, 15 December 2024
Relationship between the number of cage-free commitments and organisations advocating for them, 10 December 2024
Replacing chicken meat with beef or pork is better than the reverse (crosspost), 4 December 2024
Cost-effectiveness of corporate campaigns for chicken welfare, 29 November 2024
What has made you donate more to animal welfare and less to global health and development, or the other way around?, 24 November 2024
How to Be a Techno-Optimist for Animals, 15 November 2024
Farmed animals may have positive lives now or in a few decades?, 26 October 2024
Achieving Pareto Productivity. Simple Task Management and Productivity Rules that Go a Long Way (crosspost), 21 October 2024
Why is it so hard to know if you're helping? (crosspost), 16 October 2024
Cost-effectiveness of Shrimp Welfare Project’s Humane Slaughter Initiative, 6 October 2024
Democracy and human rights are only associated with higher welfare holding income constant in some countries, 1 October 2024
Democratic Favor Channel (linkpost), 26 September 2024
Probability of massive unemployment in the United States based on historical data, 21 September 2024
Variance of the annual conflict and epidemic/pandemic deaths as a fraction of the global population, 10 September 2024
Book Review: Seeing Like A State (linkpost), 5 September 2024
Factory-farming is as bad as one Holocaust every 2 days?, 31 August 2024
The most basic rationality techniques are often neglected (crosspost), 26 August 2024
The Life You Can Save suggests people earning 40 to 80 k$/year donate just 1 %, 21 August 2024
Charitable Giving is a Life Hack (crosspost), 16 August 2024
Catastrophes in high risk years become less likely as the number of past near misses increases?, 10 August 2024
Jacob Steinhardt's forecasting course lecture notes (linkpost), 4 August 2024
Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalism (crosspost), 30 July 2024
Future deaths from non-optimal temperature and cost-effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol injection, 25 July 2024
Democracy indices weighted by nominal and real gross domestic product, 20 July 2024
Can a pandemic cause human extinction? Possibly, at least on priors, 15 July 2024
Data Insights by Our World in Data (crosspost), 10 July 2024
Cost-effectiveness of epidemic/pandemic preparedness, 30 June 2024
Farmed animals are neglected, 24 June 2024
Can a conflict cause human extinction? Yet again, not on priors, 19 June 2024
Cost-effectiveness of buying organic instead of barn eggs, 14 June 2024
Reducing the nearterm risk of human extinction is not astronomically cost-effective?, 9 June 2024
I bet Greg Colbourn 10 k€ that AI will not kill us all by the end of 2027, 4 June 2024
titotal on AI risk scepticism (linkpost), 30 May 2024
Cost-effectiveness of School Plates, 25 May 2024
Brian Tomasik on cooperation and peace (linkpost), 20 May 2024
Anarchist Theory FAQ by Bryan Caplan (linkpost), 15 May 2024
Dispersion in the extinction risk predictions made in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament, 10 May 2024
Imitation Learning is Probably Existentially Safe (linkpost), 30 April 2024
Animals in Cost-Benefit Analysis (linkpost), 25 April 2024
Saving lives in normal times is better to improve the longterm future than doing so in catastrophes?, 20 April 2024
Concepts of existential catastrophe (linkpost), 15 April 2024
Should Open Philanthropy build detailed quantitative models which estimate global catastrophic risk?, 10 April 2024
Brian Tomasik on personal effectiveness (linkpost), 5 April 2024
Should the main text of the write-ups of Open Philanthropy’s large grants be longer than 1 paragraph?, 31 March 2024
Crises reveal centralisation (crosspost), 26 March 2024
Helping animals or saving human lives in high income countries is arguably better than saving human lives in low income countries?, 21 March 2024
Cost-effectiveness of The Introductory EA Program and 80,000 Hours’ 1-on-1 program, 16 March 2024
Marginal value (or lack thereof) of voting, 11 March 2024
Supervolcanoes tail risk has been exaggerated? (linkpost), 6 March 2024
Marginal Revolution University's courses and series (linkpost), 1 March 2024
Nuclear war tail risk has been exaggerated?, 25 February 2024
Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters (linkpost), 20 February 2024
Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley on Barriers to Bioweapons (linkpost), 15 February 2024
How much pressure do you feel against externally expressing views which do not conform to those of your manager or organisation?, 10 February 2024
Will scaling work? (crosspost), 4 February 2024
Cost-effectiveness of restricted donations, 3 February 2024
Brian Tomasik on charity (linkpost), 30 January 2024
Can a war cause human extinction? Not on priors, 25 January 2024
Some thoughts on moderation in doing good (crosspost), 20 January 2024
Maintaining differential pressure gradients does not increase safety inside modern BSL-4 laboratories (linkpost), 15 January 2024
Copenhagen Consensus Center's best investment papers for the sustainable development goals (linkpost), 10 January 2024
Expected value and uncertainty without full Monte Carlo simulations, 5 January 2024
Exaggerating the risks (Part 13: Ord on Biorisk) (crosspost), 31 December 2023
A year of wins for farmed animals (crosspost), 24 December 2023
Should 80,000 Hours be more transparent about how they rank problems and careers?, 20 December 2023
My quick thoughts on donating to EA Funds' Global Health and Development Fund and what it should do, 15 December 2023
Bryan Caplan on pacifism (crosspost), 9 December 2023
Can a terrorist attack cause human extinction? Not on priors, 2 December 2023
Brian Tomasik on climate change (linkpost), 25 November 2023
Why I don’t prioritize consciousness research (crosspost), 28 October 2023
Controlling for a thinker’s big idea (crosspost), 21 October 2023
Famine deaths due to the climatic effects of nuclear war, 14 October 2023
International risk of food insecurity and mass mortality in a runaway global warming scenario (linkpost), 2 September 2023
Critique of “Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2” (crosspost), 19 August 2023
Nuclear winter scepticism (crosspost), 13 August 2023
Badness of eating farmed animals in terms of smoking cigarettes, 22 July 2023
Prior probability of this being the most important century, 15 July 2023
Will the vast majority of technological progress happen in the longterm future?, 8 July 2023
Evidence of effectiveness and transparency of a few effective giving organisations, 1 July 2023
Welfare ranges per calorie consumption, 24 June 2023
Should Our World in Data discuss wild animal welfare in the context of nature conservation?, 18 June 2023
The Meat Eater Problem (linkpost), 17 June 2023
Are we confident that superintelligent AI disempowering humans would be bad?, 10 June 2023
Quantifying and interpreting the risks of mountaineering, 3 June 2023
Do you think decreasing the consumption of animals is good/bad? Think again?, 27 May 2023
Prioritising animal welfare over global health and development?, 13 May 2023
Ukrainian nonviolent civil resistance in the face of war (linkpost), 7 May 2023
Shapley value, importance, easiness and neglectedness, 5 May 2023
Global computing capacity (linkpost), 1 May 2023
More global warming might be good to mitigate the food shocks caused by abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios, 29 April 2023
My impact assessment of Giving What We Can, 15 April 2023
Metaculus’ predictions are much better than naive base rates, 11 April 2023
Increase in future potential due to mitigating food shocks caused by abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios, 28 March 2023
Exploring Metaculus’ community predictions, 24 March 2023
Scale of the welfare of various animal populations, 19 March 2023
Future benefits of mitigating food shocks caused by abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios, 4 March 2023
Counterproductive Altruism: The Other Heavy Tail (linkpost), 1 March 2023
Social impact of the donations of the 10 richest people in the world, 28 January 2023
Finding bugs in GiveWell's top charities, 23 January 2023
Why I am happy to reject the possibility of infinite worlds, 25 December 2022
What should the levels of consumption and savings be?, 18 December 2022
How should EA Forum readers vote on comments/posts/tags?, 9 December 2022
What is the relationship between EA Forum karma and impact?, 6 December 2022
Tree planting cost-effectiveness, 3 December 2022
Cost-effectiveness of operations management in high-impact organisations, 27 November 2022
Is improving the welfare of arthropods and nematodes underrated?, 8 November 2022
Open Letter Against Reckless Nuclear Escalation and Use (linkpost), 3 November 2022
How binary is longterm value?, 27 October 2022
What do you think is the probability of ethical hedonism being true?, 20 October 2022
Population with high IQ predicts real GDP better than population, 17 October 2022
Probability of extinction for various types of catastrophes, 9 October 2022
Confidence in the premises of the Repugnant Conclusion - results from a small survey, 8 October 2022
Global life satisfaction distribution, 1 October 2022
How much donations are needed to neutralise the annual x-risk footprint of the mean human?, 22 September 2022
What is your confidence in the premises of the Repugnant Conclusion?, 20 September 2022
Longterm cost-effectiveness of Founders Pledge's Climate Change Fund, 14 September 2022
Linear regressions of the annual amount granted by Open Philanthropy by focus area, 20 August 2022
Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the cost-effectiveness of its top charities?, 31 July 2022
Open Philanthropy's AI grants, 30 July 2022
Corporate campaigns for chicken welfare are 10,000 times as effective as GiveWell's Maximum Impact Fund?, 28 July 2022
Moral weights for various species and distributions, 3 July 2022
My notes on: Know what you’re optimising for | Alex Lawsen, 26 June 2022
Red-teaming Holden Karnofsky's AI timelines, 25 June 2022
My notes on: A Very Rational End of the World | Thomas Moynihan, 20 June 2022
Are poultry birds really important? Yes..., 19 June 2022
When should the inverse-variance method be applied to distributions?, 14 June 2022
Comparison between the hedonic utility of human life and poultry living time, 8 June 2022
My notes on: Searching for outliers, 3 June 2022
How to determine distribution parameters from quantiles, 30 May 2022
Types of information hazards, 29 May 2022
My notes on: Sequence thinking vs. cluster thinking, 25 May 2022
Do you have impostor syndrome?, 8 May 2022
Donations to effective climate charities needed to cancel lifetime GHG emissions, 25 April 2022
Cost-effectiveness of donating a kidney, 23 April 2022
Civilizational vulnerabilities, 22 April 2022
Summary: The Importance of End-of-Life Welfare | Browning & Veit, 22 April 2022
Summary: The Value of Giving Money to Different Groups | Toby Ord, 22 April 2022
What is the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell's top life-saving charities under total utilitarianism?, 22 April 2022
The number of seabirds and sea mammals killed by marine plastic pollution is quite small relative to the catch of fish, 19 April 2022
My notes on: Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally (even when they’re unbiased), 18 April 2022
Are there any uber-analyses of GiveWell/ACE top charities?, 16 April 2022
Summary: Evidence, cluelessness and the long term | Hilary Greaves, 15 April 2022
Cost-effectiveness of sending personal messages, 29 March 2022
Systematic review and meta-analysis of educational approaches to reduce cognitive biases among students (I am the 4th of 16 authors), Nature Human Behaviour, 26 August 2025
Seaweed cultivation: a cost-effective strategy for food production in a global catastrophe (I am the 2nd of 7 authors), Aquaculture International, 16 May 2025
Food system adaptation and maintaining trade could mitigate global famine in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (I am the 7th of 12 authors), Global Food Security, December 2024
Experts' AI timelines are longer than you have been told? (linkpost), 16 January 2025
Replacing chicken meat with beef or pork is better than the reverse, 27 November 2024
Identifying and supporting gifted youth (I am the 2nd of 3 authors), 27 January 2023
Good judgment: rationality, superforecasting, and other psychometrics (I am the 2nd of 3 authors), 26 January 2023
Informal evidence on identifying top talent (I am the 2nd of 3 authors), 26 January 2023
United Reformed Church Trust, 13 October 2022
Versus Arthritis, 13 October 2022
The Helping Foundation, 7 April 2022
Jewish Care, 6 April 2022
Oxford Diocesan Board Of Finance, 3 April 2022
Victoria And Albert Museum, 3 April 2022
United Bible Societies Association, 3 April 2022
The National Deaf Children's Society / Deaf Child Worldwide, 3 April 2022
World Animal Protection, 17 February 2022
The British Museum Trust, 23 November 2021
The Church Of Jesus Christ Of Latter Day Saints, 23 November 2021
Royal Opera House, 23 November 2021
Member Profile: Vasco Grilo, 13 June 2022
Será que podes fazer a diferença?, 27 March 2022
Kelly Wanser sobre se devemos intervir deliberadamente no clima, 6 July 2021
Porque devemos diminuir o consumo de produtos animais? [Parte 2], 20 May 2021
A vida que podemos salvar, 30 March 2021
Preliminary Trajectory Design of a CubeSat Mission to a Near-Earth Object (abstract), CubeSat Developers Workshop, March 2021
Preliminary Trajectory Design of a CubeSat Mission to a Near-Earth Object (extended abstract), Instituto Superior Técnico, January 2021
Preliminary Trajectory Design of a CubeSat Mission to a Near-Earth Object (thesis), Instituto Superior Técnico, January 2021