JOÃO Mário McMillan da Cunha VALLE E AZEVEDO
azevedojv[at]gmail[dot]com
Education
Stanford University, Ph.D. in Economics, 2007
London School of Economics and Political Science, M.Sc. in Statistics (Distinction), 2002
Technical University of Lisbon (ISEG), Lic. in Mathematics Applied to Economics and Business (Distinction), 2001
Affiliations
Member of Portuguese Parliament, since 2024
Vice-President of Parliamentary Group of PSD
Member of Parliamentary Comission for Economic matters, Infrastructure and Housing
Member of Parliamentary Comission for Budget, Financial matters and Public Administration
Nova School of Business and Economics, Associate Professor (Adjunct), since 2018 (on leave since March 2024)
Católica Lisbon School of Business and Economics, Assistant Professor (Adjunct), since 2012
Previous Experience
Eurosystem, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, 2019-2024
Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department
Head of Monetary Policy Division, 2015-2024
Banco de Portugal, Research Economist, Economics and Research Department
Monetary Policy Division, 2013-2014
Public Finance and Structural Studies Division, 2007-2013
Nova School of Business and Economics, Assistant Professor (Adjunct), 2008-2017
Stanford University, Teaching Assistant, Department of Economics, 2005/2006
Free University of Amsterdam, Researcher, Department of Econometrics, 2002/2003
Banco de Portugal, Junior Researcher, Economics and Research Department, 2000/2001
Research Interests
Macroeconomics (Monetary Economics and Fiscal Policy) and Time Series Econometrics
Awards and Distinctions
100 Years Board of Honor, ISEG - Technical University of Lisbon, 2011
Doctoral Scholarship, Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, 2003-2007
Doctoral Fellowship, Stanford University, 2003/2004 and 2004/2005
Robert McKenzie prize, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2002
Graduate Merit Award, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2001
Master's Scholarship, Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, 2001/2002
Research Scholarship, Banco de Portugal, 2000/2001
Highest GPA prize, Arthur Andersen Portugal, 2001
Merit Award, Technical University of Lisbon, 1997/1998, 1998/1999, 1999/2000 and 2000/2001
Research
"Permanent and Temporary Monetary Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Exchange Rates" (with Carvalho, A. and Pires Ribeiro, P.), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 147, January 2024
“The Neutrality of Nominal Rates: How Long is the Long Run?” (with Teles, P. and Ritto, J.), International Economic Review, Vol. 63(4), November 2022, pp. 1745-1777
"How Can the Government Spending Multiplier be Small at the Zero Lower Bound?" (with Ercolani, V.), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 23(8), December 2019 , pp. 3457-3482
"Deposit Insurance and Cross-Border Banks" (with Bonfim, D.), ifo DICE Report, Vol. 17(1), May 2019, pp. 14-2
"Macroeconomic Forecasting using Low-Frequency Filters" (with Pereira, A.), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 80(1), February 2018, pp. 39-64
"Model-Based vs. Professional Forecasts: Implications for Models with Nominal Rigidities" (with Jalles, J.), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 21(1), January 2017, pp. 130-159
"Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?" (with Teles, P. and Uhligh, H.), The Economic Journal, Vol. 126, March 2016, pp. 442-464
"The Effects of Public Spending Externalities" (with Ercolani, V.), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 46, September 2014, pp. 173-199
"Approximating and Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time" (with Pereira, A.), International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 29(3), July 2013, pp. 479-492
"Finite Sample Performance of Frequency and Time Domain Tests for Seasonal Fractional Integration" (with Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. and Rubia, A.), Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol. 83(7), July 2013, pp. 1373-1384
"A Multivariate Band-Pass Filter For Economic Time Series", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (C), Vol. 60(1), January 2011, pp. 1-30
"Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles" (with Koopman, S.J.), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 70(1), February 2008, pp. 23-51
"Tracking the Business Cycle of the Euro Area: a Multivariate Model-based Band-pass Filter" (with Koopman, S.J. and Rua, A.), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 24(3), July 2006, pp. 278-290
Other Publications
"Climate Change and the Economy: an Introduction" (with Adão, B., Antunes, A., Lourenço, N. and M. Gouveia), Occasional Papers, Banco de Portugal, 2022-1
"The Deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union" (with Braz, C. and J. Amador), Occasional Papers, Banco de Portugal, 2019-1
"An Evaluation of Government Expenditures' Externalities" (with Ercolani, V.), Economic Bulletin, Banco de Portugal, Autumn 2012, pp. 107-122
"Rational vs. Professional Forecasts", Economic Bulletin, Banco de Portugal, Summer 2011, pp. 81-100
"Forecasting Inflation with Monetary aggregates" (with Pereira, A.), Economic Bulletin, Banco de Portugal, Autumn 2010, pp. 151-168
"Approximating and Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time in the Euro-Area" (with Pereira, A.), Economic Bulletin, Banco de Portugal, Winter 2008, pp. 73-88
Books and Chapters in Books
“Perspectives on the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy Review”, 2021, co-editor with Ildeberta Abreu, Lisbon, Banco de Portugal. ISBN (online) 978-989-678-777-6
"Flexible use of the medium term and of the reaction function to support economic growth and full employment" (with Nuno Monteiro), Chapter 5.1 in Abreu, I. and J. Valle e Azevedo (Eds.) (2021). “Perspectives on the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy Review”, Lisbon, Banco de Portugal. ISBN (online) 978-989-678-777-6
"A renewed two-pillar framework for assessing the risks to price stability" (with Diana Bonfim and Carlos M. Martins), Chapter 4.3 in Abreu, I. and J. Valle e Azevedo (Eds.) (2021). “Perspectives on the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy Review”, Lisbon, Banco de Portugal. ISBN (online) 978-989-678-777-6
"A Perda da Soberania Monetária é a causa da Estagnação Económica?", 2019, in "Linhas Direitas - Cultura e Política à Direita", Miguel Morgado, Rui Ramos (Coord.), Lisboa, Publicações Dom Quixote, pp. 356-359 (Portuguese only)
Working Papers
"Macroeconomic Forecasting Starting From Survey Nowcasts" (with Gonçalves, I.), Banco de Portugal WP 13-2015
"Forecasting Inflation with Monetary aggregates" (with Pereira, A.), Banco de Portugal WP 13-2010
"Exact Limit of the Expected Periodogram in the Unit-Root case", Banco de Portugal WP 13-2007
"Interpretation of the Effects of Filtering Integrated Time Series", Banco de Portugal WP 12-2007
"Cyclical Co-movement Within the European Union in the Period 1960-1999. A Frequency Domain Approach", Banco de Portugal WP 5-2002
Work in progress
"New-Keynesian Models with Non-Stationary Natural Real Rates"
"Phillips curves vs. Nominal Rates for Inflation Forecasting" (with Garcia, J.)
Selected Policy Work - Banco de Portugal
(participation in working groups and analytical work)
Risk Commission - sub-Commission for Financial Risk, 2018-2024
Monetary Policy Operational Framework in the Long Run, 2018
Deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union, 2018-2019
Central Bank Foreign Currency Exposure, 2018-2019
Strategic Benchmark for Reserve Management, 2018-2024
Reflection Group on Monetary Policy for Strategic Planning 2017-2020, 2016
Insolvency Regimes and Debt Restructuring, 2014
Analysis of Methodology for Ratings of Mortgage Backed Securities, 2014
Analysis of changes in Methodology for Ratings above the Sovereign, 2013
Organization of Conferences and Workshops
Fórum Monetário, Banco de Portugal, since 2017
Workshop "Digital Currencies", Banco de Portugal, January 2016
Workshop "Financing Sustainable Growth and Investment in Portugal and the euro area" for the Second "Economists Meeting" Banco de Portugal - OMFIF, February 2015
Conference "Investment Finance and the Recovery", Lisboa, Banco de Portugal, September 2014 and Workshop "Deleveraging towards economic growth", Banco de Portugal, September 2014 (with European Investment Bank)
Workshop "How to exit successfully from an adjustment programme within the euro area", Banco de Portugal, June 2013 (with P. Teles and I. Gameiro)
Languages
Portuguese - Native
English, Spanish - Fluent
Italian - Intermediate
French - Intermediate
Civic Participation
Economic Advisor, contribution to economic proposals (Housing and Fiscal Reform, 2023) and elaboration of 2024 Electoral Programme, 2022-2024, PSD (Partido Social Democrata)
Coordinator of Macroeconomic Group and Participant in Microeconomic and State Reform Groups, Gabinete de Estudos PSD, 2016-2018
Collaboration, Gabinete de Estudos PSD, 2016
Contributed to Elaboration of Electoral Programme of PSD, 2015
Personal Information
Date of Birth: 12 August, 1978