Using value-added models, this paper investigates the role of high school in students' orientation choices. I use French administrative data providing information on all high school students who applied to higher education and estimate high school value-added in France between 2014 and 2017 for more than one million students. I then study the impact of high school value-added on orientation choices using applications made by 12th grade students for the first year of higher education. I find that attending a high school with one standard deviation higher value-added causes an increase in the probability of applying to selective programs by 3.7 percentage points. I also find weaker effects for low-SES and female students.

Existing literature has emphasized the role of individual social characteristics in shaping students' aspirations. Yet, it is also important to understand how students' aspirations can be influenced by economic conditions. This paper develops a model where aspirations embody the influence of economic conditions and finds that students' aspirations are likely to be lower when economic conditions deteriorate. To test my empirical prediction, I use the 2015 and 2018 PISA waves and study how aspirations of 15-year-old students are shaped by employment fluctuations across 48 regions in 7 countries. I use a Bartik instrument approach where regional employment growth rates are predicted using regional industry shares and national industry growth rates. Preliminary results suggest a strong positive relationship between changes in regional employment rate and educational aspirations of 15-year-old students.