Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Learning in Materials Design


Eric Hall

School of Mathematics, University of Dundee, United Kingdom

 

Abstract: Modern science and engineering utilize physics-based models to inform decisions and guide design. In these settings, systems of interest are typically complex, exhibiting multiscale/-physics interactions and involving correlated/dependent and non-Gaussian variables. This talk presents two uncertainty quantification technologies for deep learning for physics-based models of complex systems arising in materials design for energy storage. The first is Graph-Informed Neural Networks (GINNs), a strategy for incorporating domain knowledge into machine-learned surrogate models. This framework embeds expert knowledge, available data, and design constraints into a physics-based representation using probabilistic graphical models that provide a context for interpreting the surrogate's predictions, thereby enhancing defensibility. The second is Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) based on information theoretic dissimilarity measures. Our information-theoretic GSA provides a model-agnostic uncertainty quantification method for interrogating surrogates compatible with a wide range of black-box models. Effect rankings based on information-theoretic GSA assist in explaining surrogate predictions, thereby enabling deep-learning surrogates to close design loops for rapid simulation-based prototyping.