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Stochastic Process
Indicates a statistical process whose behaviour is non-deterministic, such that the resulting systemic state (equilibrium condition) is determined by components that are both predictable and random.
The Qualitative Statistical Model
The Qualitative Statistical Model (QSM) is a stochastic modeling tool constituted by a physical (urban capital) index, and a non-physical (social capital) index. A state of qualitative neutrality - considered an ideal objective of policy design - may be demonstrated to occur at the equilibrium of these principal indices.
The Dynamic Policy Model
The Dynamic Policy Model (DPM) refers to a discretionary policy framework of governmental fiscal and monetary policy. Nested in the qualitative statistical model (above), the DPM articulates a region of dynamic economic development being an arena in which governments manouvre the policy objective function (POF).
Efficacious leverage of the binary forces of 'allocative function' and 'redistributive function' is therefore an essential task of managing policy space.
Global Indices
Global Indices
Human Well-Being Indicators
The most prominent global indices providing a statistical measure of changes in human well-being, inter alia, includes: (i) the UN Human Development Index (UNDHI); (ii) the UN Gender-Related Development Index (UNGDI); and (iii) the Economic Freedom of the World Index (EFWI).
Environmental Indicators
Leading benchmark global indices related to measures of natural capital, ecological footprint and environmental sustainability, are: (i) the Ecological Deficit Reserve (EDR); and (ii) the Environmental Performance Index (EPI).
Autologous Country Vector
Autologous Country Vector
Composite Statistical Models
An econometric innovation, the composite statistical model may be constructed for a variety of purposes and is most commonly used for comparative analysis of key governance indicators in the compilation of economic and demographic data series. Complex composite statistical models characteristically involve structural equation modeling techniques in combination with linear trending to produce a generalised additive model that explains communalities in factor loading and latent variables. These models also capture logical computations in causal complexity.
The Autologous Country Vector (ACV) introduces the concepts of 'synchronicity' and 'formulative-duration' to statistical matrix computations, and imputes a matrix solution set contingent to a variable country vector set. For any given country, the temporal magnitude of the country vector is enumerated by structural components, namely country level, country gradient, and country momentum. Partial analysis facilitates country transformation factors that yield critical indicators of country dynamism and country residual autonomy.
Risk Management
Risk Management
Market-Linked Risk
Extreme market-linked risk, especially concerning less developed countries, is assessed using a number of vulnerability indicators covering all economic sectors. In particular, the International Monetary Fund closely monitors the international monetary system for extreme risk using an Early Warning System (EWS) market surveillance model.
Natural Disaster Risk
A composite index deriving a measure of both economic vulnerability and ecological fragility is encapsulated in the Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI). This index appraises the risk and absorptive capacity of small states using estimates for size and probability, exposure and resilience.
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