UNIVAC

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The UNIVAC (universal vaccine) decision-support model is an Excel static cohort model. It can be used to estimate the potential benefits, harms, costs, cost-utility (cost per DALY averted), and benefit-risk (balance of health benefits and harms) of alternative vaccine policy options e.g. for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human papillomavirus (HPV), and rotavirus (RV) vaccines. The model does not capture potentially important indirect effects e.g. herd effects, type replacement. An alternative modelling approach should be considered if incorporation of these features could lead to a different vaccine policy recommendation. The target users are Working Groups (WGs) associated with National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) and their Secretariats in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). The model has been designed to support a broad process of training, stakeholder engagement, evidence synthesis, and communication with NITAGs. Please contact the model development team (univac.model@gmail.com) and country partners (e.g. PAHO, UNICEF, PATH etc.) for advice and support before getting started. Independent use of the model without training or national stakeholder engagement is strongly discouraged. Model outcomes include projected vaccine program costs, health service costs,  disease cases, serious adverse events, clinic visits, hospital admissions, deaths and Disability Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) with and without the policy option under consideration. 

The UNIVAC model was developed by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). It has been regularly updated in response to feedback from in-country teams and collaborating partner organisations. Funding and technical support for the development and implementation of the model has been provided by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and PATH, within broader grants supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).