The scenario in Kyiv is by far the riskiest in the nation's 30-year history, as Russian forces unleash an all-out attack on Ukraine after months of military escalation following failed diplomatic efforts The Girl in Kherson by the United States and its allies of Europe to avoid conflict
Since its separation from the Soviet Union, Ukraine has vacillated between the influences of Moscow and the West, enduring controversies and wars while maintaining its democracy. It is already undergoing the greatest test since the very existence of Russia as a sovereign country is in danger.
Following the illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, many Ukrainians have turned away from Moscow and toward the West, with growing public support for joining Western alliances such as NATO and the European Union.
In 2014, Russian-backed separatists took control of two districts along the country's eastern border with Russia. According to the International Crisis Committee, approximately 14,000 people have died as a result of the conflict in eastern Ukraine in the years since. Russia's recognition of the independence of the two regions paved the way for its troops to enter Ukraine. In the parts below, we will review how Ukraine evolved to where it is now.
5.1 The 1990s: Independence from the Soviet Union
Given below is a chronological record of events that took place in the 1990s.
5.1.1 What Happened in 1989 and 1990?
Anti-communist demonstrations spread across Central and Eastern Europe, beginning in Poland and spreading throughout the Soviet bloc. In January 1990, almost 400,000 people in Ukraine joined in a 400-mile human chain that stretched from Ivano-Frankivsk in the west to Kyiv, the capital, in the country's north-central region. The blue and yellow flag of Ukraine, which was banned during the Soviet administration, is waved by a large number of people.
5.1.2 Key Event of July 16, 1990
The Rada, a new Ukrainian legislature that arose from the former legislature of Soviet, voted to secede from the Soviet Union and declare independence. Northern Ukrainian authorities have recalled Ukrainian soldiers from many other parts of the Soviet Union and voted to close down the nuclear power plant of Chornobyl.
5.1.3 Key Events of the Year 1991
Following a failed coup in Moscow, the parliament of Ukraine just declared independence for the second time on August 24. Ukraine's formal Independence Day is currently observed on this date.
Ukrainians overwhelmingly approved the proclamation of their independence in December, with around 92 percent of the voting in favor. The Soviet Union formally dissolves on December 26th, signaling the end of the USSR.
5.1.4 Key Events of the Year 1992
Ukraine establishes an official partnership with NATO, although it does not actually join, as NATO partners explore joining members from Central and Eastern Europe for the first time. Leonid Kravchuk, President of Ukraine, visited NATO headquarters in Brussels, while NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg paid a visit to Kyiv.
5.1.5 Key Event That Took Place in December 1994
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine now has the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Ukraine agrees to hand over its warheads, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and other nuclear facilities in exchange for guarantees from the other three signatories to the treaty (the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia) that Ukraine's sovereignty, independence, and current borders will be preserved.
5.1.6 What Happened Between 1994 and 2004?
In his ten years as Ukraine's president, Leonid Kuchma has helped Ukraine's transition from a Soviet republic to a capitalist society by privatizing businesses and seeking to expand international economic opportunities. However, in 2000, his leadership was overshadowed by a controversy involving audio recordings that revealed that he ordered the murder of a journalist. Despite what was said, he remained in power for another four years.
5.2 The 2000s: Wavering Between the West and Russia
Listed below is a chronological record of key events that took place in the 2000s:
5.2.1 Key Events of the Year 2004
The election pairs Viktor Yushchenko, a famous pro-democracy opposition leader, against Kuchma's incumbent party, headed by his hand-picked replacement, Viktor Yanukovych, and backed by Vladimir Putin, Russian President. In the final months of the campaign, Yushchenko becomes suddenly ill and deformed, leading doctors to believe he was poisoned. Yanukovych wins an election despite allegations of cheating. As a result, massive protests erupt, and the public outcry is termed the Orange Revolution. After the final round of voting, Yushchenko is declared the winner.
5.2.2 Key Event of January 2005
Yushchenko takes oath as president. At the same time, Yulia Tymoshenko takes oath as prime minister.
5.2.3 Key Events of the Year 2008
Yushchenko and Tymoshenko officially demanded in January that Ukraine be given a “membership action plan,” the first step in the membership process, after their efforts to bring Ukraine into NATO. Although US President George W. Bush is in favor of Ukraine's admission, Germany and France are hostile after Russia expressed discontent. In April, NATO responded with a compromise. They claim that Ukraine will join the alliance at some point in the future, but do not explain how.
5.2.4 Key Event of January 2009
After months of very tense negotiations over gas prices, Gazprom, Russia's state-owned gas corporation, abruptly stopped supplying Ukraine with natural gas on January 1. The gas crisis is rapidly spreading beyond Ukraine's borders because countries in Central and Eastern Europe depend on pipelines through Ukraine to receive shipments of Russian gas. Tymoshenko negotiates a new agreement with Putin under international pressure to end the situation, and gas flows resume on January 20. Today, much of Europe is still dependent on Russian gas.
5.2.5 Key Events of the Year 2010
In February, Yanukovych was elected president. He believes Ukraine should be a “neutral state,” cooperating with Russia as well as Western alliances such as NATO.
5.2.6 Key Events of the Year 2011
Prosecutors in Ukraine have opened criminal investigations into Tymoshenko, accusing her of corruption and embezzlement of government funds. In October, a court found her guilty of “abuse of power” during discussions over the 2009 gas crisis with Russia and sentenced her to seven years in prison, sparking fears in the West that Ukrainian officials are targeting political opponents.
5.3 2014: The Maidan Revolution and Crimea's Annexation
Given below is a chronological record of events that took place between 2013 and 2014:
5.3.1 The Main Events That Took Place Between November 2013 and February 2014
Yanukovych declares that he will not sign an association agreement with the EU for Ukraine to join a free trade zone. This announcement comes a few days after the signing of the association agreement. He attributes his decision to Russian coercion. The proclamation sparked the largest anti-Yanukovych demonstrations in Ukraine since the Orange Revolution.
On Kyiv’s Maidan, also called Independence Square, protesters occupy government buildings, notably the Kyiv City Hall and the Ministry of Justice. Clashes between police and protesters in late February resulted in the bloodiest week in post-Soviet Ukraine's history, with more than 100 people killed.
Yanukovych flees, eventually landing in Russia, ahead of an impeachment vote scheduled for February 22. Ukraine's parliament has voted unanimously to oust Yanukovych and form an interim administration that promises to sign the EU pact and votes to free Tymoshenko.
The new government accuses Yanukovych of mass-murdering Maidan protesters. He too has been taken into custody by the new government. The change in Ukraine's government has been called an unconstitutional coup by Russia. Armed personnel arrives almost quickly at checkpoints and infrastructure on the Crimean peninsula. Putin denies that they were Russian forces at first, but later admitted that they are.
5.3.2 Key Event of March 2014
The Crimean parliament voted to separate from Ukraine and join Russia after Russian troops take control of the peninsula. Following that, a public referendum is held, with 97 percent of voters in support of secession; however, the results are controversial.
In a March 18 address to Russia's parliament, Putin completes the annexation of Crimea. As a result, the United States and its European allies have imposed sanctions on Russia. They have never acknowledged Russia's takeover of Crimea. Since World War II, it is the only time a European nation has used armed force to seize the territory of another.
5.3.3 Key Event of April 2014
With 40,000 Russian forces stationed on Ukraine's eastern border, violence erupts in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which continues to this day. Separatist forces backed by Russia stormed government facilities in Donetsk and Luhansk, two eastern regions.
The Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic declare independence from Ukraine; however, they remain internationally recognized as part of Ukraine. Russian officials deny that their forces are on Ukrainian soil, while Ukrainian officials maintain that they are.
5.3.4 Key Event of May 2014
A Pro-Western politician, Petro Poroshenko, a former minister of government and the National Bank of Ukraine Council President has been elected President of Ukraine. He is a proponent of change, which he sees as necessary to battle corruption and lessen Ukraine's dependency on Russia for financial and energy aid.
5.3.5 Key Event of September 5, 2014
Representatives from Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany are meeting in Belarus to try to broker a cease-fire in the Donbas and thus end the violence. They sign the first Minsk agreement, which is a frail cease-fire pact between Ukraine and Russia. The cease-fire is quickly broken and fighting continues into the new year.
5.4 2015 Through 2020: Russia Looms
Given below is a chronological record of events that took place between 2015 and 2020:
5.4.1 Key Event of February 2015
The Minsk Group meets again in Belarus to reach a more successful agreement to end the war in eastern Ukraine, resulting in the Minsk II agreement. It also fails to end the violence. More than 14,000 people have been killed, tens of thousands injured, and more than a million people displaced since 2014. The annexation of Crimea and Russian-backed bloodshed in the east combined to sway Ukrainian public opinion in favor of the West, reinforcing the demand to join NATO and the EU.
5.4.2 What Happened Between Years 2016 and 2017?
As the battle in the Donbas continues, Russia has launched a number of cyber-attacks against Ukraine, including a 2016 attack on Kyiv's power grid which resulted in a significant blackout. A large-scale attack on important Ukrainian infrastructure, including the National Bank of Ukraine as well as the country's electrical grid, occurred in 2017. (Russian cyber-attacks have persisted to this day; the most recent significant strike targeted government websites in January 2022.)
5.4.3 Key Events of the Year 2019
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a comedian and actor, is elected president in April in a landslide rejection of Poroshenko and the status quo, which includes a stagnant economy and a confrontation with Russia.
During his campaign, Zelenskyy promised to establish peace with Russia and bring the Donbas conflict to an end. His initial efforts to find a solution to the bloodshed are hindered by US President Donald Trump, who temporarily suspends military supplies to Ukraine and advises Zelenskyy to engage with Putin to resolve the problem.
In a phone contact with Trump in July 2019, Zelenskyy asked for a meeting with Trump at the White House to discuss the US support for Ukraine's efforts to force Russia out. Trump requests a “favor” from Zelenskyy: an investigation into Burisma Energy and the Bidens. A White House whistleblower complains, and Trump is impeached for the first time in December 2019. Several US officials testified afterward that Zelenskyy was on the verge of launching such a probe, but he eventually declined, claiming that Ukrainians are “tired” of Burisma.
5.5 2021: The Crisis Escalates
Given below is a chronological record of events that took place in the year 2021:
5.5.1 What Happened in April 2021?
Around 100,000 Russian troops have been dispatched to Ukraine's borders, ostensibly for military training. Despite the fact that very few analysts think an attack is imminent, Zelenskyy encourages NATO to put Ukraine on a timeframe for membership. Russia says troops will be withdrawn next month, but tens of thousands remain.
5.5.2 What Happened in August 2021?
Two years after his disagreement with Trump, Zelenskyy returns to the White House to meet alongside Vice President Biden. Biden emphasizes the US support for “Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty in the midst of Russian aggression,” yet emphasizes that Ukraine has still not met the NATO membership conditions.
5.5.3 What Happened in November 2021?
Russia's army presence near the Ukrainian-Russian border has been renewed, alarming US intelligence officials who are traveling to Brussels to brief NATO partners on the situation. “We don't know what Mr. Putin is up to,” says US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, “but these movements surely have our attention.” On December 14, 2021, Russian troops participated in the drills at the Kadamovskiy firing range in the Rostov region of southern Russia.
5.5.4 What Happened in December 2021?
Biden urges Russia not to attack Ukraine in a phone conversation with Putin, warning of “grave consequences” if it does. Putin makes a number of challenging security demands. He demands that Ukraine be forever prohibited from NATO membership, as well as the withdrawal of NATO military stationed in nations that entered after 1997, like Romania as well as the Balkans. Putin also wants a written agreement from NATO and the US.
5.6 2022: Russia Moves In
Now let's take a look at the events that have occurred since the beginning of the year 2022.
5.6.1 What Did Russia Do in January 2022?
Several times, the leaders and diplomats of the states of Russia, the US, and Europe have met to try to prevent a crisis. In early January, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov informed US officials that Russia appears to have no plans to attack Ukraine.
On January 23, the State Department ordered the families of embassy staff members to leave Ukraine. The United States has ordered 8,500 troops to be ready to deploy the next day, putting NATO forces on high alert.
The United States and NATO representatives responded in writing to Putin's demands on January 26. Officials believe they will not be able to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO but have indicated a willingness to discuss minor issues such as arms control.
5.6.2 What Did Russia Do in February 2022?
Efforts at diplomacy are picking up steam across Europe. President of France, Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are traveling between Moscow and Kyiv. Biden orders the deployment of 2,000 extra US troops to Poland and Germany, as well as the movement of 1,000 US troops from Germany to Romania.
On February 10, Russia and Belarus will begin joint military drills, with 30,000 Russian troops stationed in Belarus along Ukraine's northern border. On February 11, the United States and the United Kingdom advised their citizens to leave Ukraine. Biden announces the deployment of an additional 2,000 US troops to Poland.
Furthermore, to aggravate the situation, fighting between Russian-backed rebels and Ukrainian soldiers in the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk erupt in mid-February. Leaders of the separatist movement have called for evacuations. “What is happening in Donbas now, in our opinion, is genocide,” Putin says on February 15—a bogus assertion that Western officials accuse Putin of making to justify an invasion. Russia's troop presence on the Ukrainian border continues to grow. Between 150,000 and 190,000 troops are estimated to be present.
Officials from the United States, including President Joe Biden, have increased the seriousness of their warnings, claiming that Russia has decided to invade. Putin recognized publicly the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics on February 21, including territory claimed by separatists but controlled by Ukrainian armed troops. Under the cover of a “peacekeeping” mission, he authorizes Russia's military to deploy troops there. As a result, Biden calls the move “the start of a Russian invasion.”
The United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union have joined hands to adopt a comprehensive package of penalties against Russian banks and oligarchs. On February 24, Russian forces carried out the largest military operation in Europe since World War II, a devastating attack on Ukrainian territory. Missiles rain down on Ukraine's cities, while columns of Russian troops from Belarus and Russian-controlled Crimea are said to be pouring into the countryside. On multiple fronts, Ukrainian forces are apparently attempting to halt the Russian advance.
5.7 Donbas Is at the Heart of the Ukraine Crisis
After Russian-backed separatists seized government facilities in towns and cities across eastern Ukraine, a war started in 2014. Intense fighting has put Russian-backed separatists in control of parts of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas region.
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine, which drew international outrage. The Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics were established in separatist-controlled territories of Donbas. The Ukrainian administration in Kyiv claims that the two territories are effectively occupied by Russia.
Except for Russia and its close ally Syria, no government recognizes the self-proclaimed republics. The Ukrainian government will not engage in direct negotiations with either separatist republic. The 2015 Minsk II agreement resulted in a weak ceasefire, and the conflict turned into static warfare along the Line of Contact, which divides Ukrainian government-controlled territory from separatist-controlled territory. Heavy weapons are prohibited along the Line of Contact under the Minsk Agreements (titled after the Belarusian capital where they were signed).
The conflict's language is strongly politicized. Separatist forces are referred to as “invaders” and “occupiers” by the Ukrainian government. Separatist forces are referred to as “militias” by Russian media, which says they are locals protecting themselves against the Kyiv administration.
Since 2014, more than 14,000 people have died in the Donbas conflict. According to Ukraine, one and a half million people have been forced to flee their homes, with the majority remaining in Ukrainian-controlled areas of Donbas and roughly 200,000 resettling in the wider Kyiv region.
5.7.1 How Has Putin Fueled the Conflict?
Moscow has also been a staunch supporter of Donbas separatists. Russia has long insisted that it has actually no troops in Ukraine, but NATO, US, and Ukrainian authorities allege that Russia feeds separatists, offers intelligence and advisory support, and embeds its own leaders among their ranks.
Moscow has issued hundreds and thousands of Russian passports to people from Donbas in recent years. Western authorities and observers have accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying to establish reality on the ground by naturalizing Ukrainians as Russian citizens, thereby recognizing the breakaway republics. It also serves as a reason for his intervention in Ukraine.
The Russian parliament last week urged that the Kremlin formally recognize parts of the DPR and LPR as independent republics, suggesting another escalation in language that US officials said showed Putin's refusal to implement the Minsk agreement.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that the country “will not stop until we liberate our territories in Donbas and Crimea; until Russia returns for all the damage it has caused in Ukraine.” Putin has long accused Ukraine of violating the rights of Russian speakers and ethnic Russians within the country, claiming the power to intervene militarily to protect them.
In Donbas, Putin recently declared that “genocide” is actually taking place. His claims are not new, but the timing worries Western politicians, who fear a repeat of the 2008 Georgian unrest.
Putin's use of the term “genocide” echoed Russia's false claim in August 2008 that Georgia committed genocide against citizens in the breakaway republic of South Ossetia. During that brief conflict, Russia launched a massive military offensive into Georgian territory.
The Donbas region, as it was in 2014, is now at the center of the East-West conflict, between Putin's goal of regaining power while undermining the Ukrainian state, and the growing interest of Ukrainians in joining the ranks of European democracies.