Title: The Experience Formation Mechanism
(Christian Conrad, Zeno Enders, Alexander Glas)

Abstract: We show that inflation expectations of households do not depend on experienced inflation directly; they are rather influenced by remembered inflation. This makes a difference as remembered and actually experienced inflation generally differ. We therefore investigate how inflation experiences are formed and what they depend on. Our main findings are: (i) On average, households overestimate lifetime inflation. (ii) While higher remembered lifetime inflation leads to higher expectations of future inflation rates, there is no such effect for actually experienced inflation. (iii) Negative emotions associated with inflation increase the upward bias of inflation memories, while higher actual inflation rates reduce it. We derive a theoretical model that accounts for the empirical evidence.

Title: An economic model of utility privatisation
(Maris Goldmanis, Will Matcham, Philip R. Neary, Fran O’Toole, Alexander Vickery)

Abstract: We propose a model of privatisation, the transfer of a state-financed and state-run utility “to the market”. Multiple private firms compete for the right to monopolise the utility market via one of two systems of tender: commitment-to-price and lump-sum transfer. The most efficient firm always wins the monopoly contract but the resulting equilibrium outcome depends both on the specifics of the tender mechanism and the structure of the market (the costs of the privately held firms, the elasticity of demand, etc.). Interpreting state-run provision as the status quo we benchmark both privatised outcomes against this when the goal is to maximise total surplus and when the goal is to maximise consumer surplus. We characterise when privatisation increases (appropriately defined) surplus and we show that no one policy is uniformly optimal.

Title: The Puzzle of a Missing Wage-Price Spiral: Experimental Evidence on Inflation Expectations and Labor Supply
(Vitaliia Yaremko, ChaeWon Baek)

Abstract: We study how workers form their price and wage inflation expectations and incorporate them into their labor supply decisions based on experimental evidence from the U.S. online labor market.  Exploiting exogenous variation in expectations generated by randomized information treatments, we find that workers do not increase their reservation wages in response to higher price inflation expectations. Instead, workers reduce their reservation wages for multi-period employment contracts when price inflation expectations rise, after controlling for wage growth and unemployment expectations.  This behavior indicates that individuals perceive higher inflation as a negative signal about the economy and lower their reservation wages accordingly, effectively increasing labor supply as a form of precautionary behavior. These findings suggest that the risk of wage-price spirals in the U.S. was limited in 2022, despite high price inflation rates.

Title: Shame, Guilt, and Motivated Self-Confidence

Abstract:  The available evidence from anthropology, economics, and psychology suggests that sensitivities to the emotions of shame and guilt vary across cultures. So does (over)confidence in ability and skills. Is there a connection between these observations? We address this question theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, we explore the socially optimal combination of psychological incentives and the emergence of different cultural equilibria. Empirically, we find significant evidence of a negative relationship between individual confidence and the cultural importance of shame versus guilt. The relationship holds across countries, and for U.S. immigrants relative to their culture of origin, suggesting a causal effect still significant after more than 8 years.

Title: A Thirst for Silver: Trade Shocks, Taxation, and Local Unrest in Nineteenth-Century China
(Ting Chen, Jianan Li, Chong Pang, Yuan Zi)

Abstract: We provide new evidence that rigid trade and taxation systems, combined with a global decline in silver production triggered by the Spanish American wars of independence, fueled social instability in early nineteenth-century Qing China. Drawing on newly assembled county-level panel data and historical commercial routes, we show that regions farther from Canton—the empire’s sole legal international port—faced sharper silver price increases and higher conflict incidence after the silver shock. We argue that silver taxation was central to this relationship: because taxes were fixed in silver, price increases raised the real tax burden and heightened the risk of unrest. Quantitative estimates indicate that the global silver shock lowered China’s aggregate welfare by 1.1%, with taxation accounting for most of the loss. Counterfactual analysis suggests that opening additional international ports would have dispersed the negative impacts more evenly across regions and made them less politically destabilizing, though the effect was limited. By contrast, fiscal reform emerges as a more critical policy lever for mitigating the adverse consequences of the silver shock. 

Title: The Political Consequences of Controversial Education Reform: Lessons from Wisconsin's Act 10
(Barbara Biasi, Wayne Sandholtz )

Abstract:  Public service reforms often provoke political backlash. Can they also yield political benefits for the politicians who champion them? We study a Wisconsin law that weakened teachers' unions and liberalized pay, prompting mass protests. Exploiting its staggered implementation across school districts, we find that the reform cut union revenues, raised student test scores, and increased pay for some teachers. Exposure to the law increased the incumbent governor's vote share by about 20% of his margin of victory and reduced campaign contributions to his opponent. Gains were larger in districts with stronger unions ex ante and in those where more voters benefited from the reform. Our findings highlight how even politically risky reforms can generate electoral benefits under the right circumstances.

Title: Dynamic investment in teamwork skill: Theory and experimental evidence
(David Gill, Victoria Prowse, J. Lucas Reddinger)

Abstract: Teamwork and collaboration are increasingly important. To help understand the dynamics of teamwork skill formation, we provide the first systematic analysis of dynamic investment in teamwork skill. First, adopting a dynamic game approach, we construct a theoretical framework where investment in team skill creates persistent benefits and externalities for teammates, but where investment is risky because the benefits depend on successful team coordination. Second, we take this framework to the laboratory to gain insight into factors that influence dynamic investment in team skill. We find under-investment compared to the efficient benchmark. However, investment in team skill responds strongly to incentives, in line with specific patterns predicted by our theory. We also find that people’s theory of mind and propensity to coordinate predict how much they invest in team skill. We conclude that careful design of team incentives and selection of team members can facilitate the dynamic development of teamwork skills.

Walsh-Neary Lecture 2025: "Globalisation in Times of Upheaval" by Beata Javorcik

The Walsh-Neary Lecture is an annual event held in honour of Brendan Walsh and Peter Neary, whose contributions have had a profound and lasting impact on the UCD School of Economics. Every year, we invite a prominent economist for a public lecture on a topic that is of broad interest to society. We are very excited that this year's speaker is Prof. Beata Javorcik, Professor at the University of Oxford and Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Prof. Javorcik is a leading researcher on the causes and consequences of globalisation. She has published over 100 scientific articles on foreign direct investment and international trade flows, and has advised numerous governments and international institutions in her roles at the World Bank and EBRD. In times of tectonic shifts in the global economy, it is important to hear from a thought leader on globalisation. Prof. Javorcik's lecture with the title "Globalisation in Times of Upheaval" will be geared towards a general audience and, thus, ideal for undergraduate students.

I hope that many of you will join us for an inspiring lecture. The lecture takes place on October 22 at 4pm in the UCD Village Auditorium. To attend, please register here: https://www.eventbrite.ie/e/walsh-neary-lecture-2025-tickets-1702308834549 

Title: Global Banks’ Macroeconomic Expectations and Credit Supply
( Xiang Li, Steven Ongena)

Abstract: We investigate how global banks’ macroeconomic expectations for borrower countries influence their credit supply. Utilizing granular data on varying expectations among banks lending to the same firm at the same time, combined with an instrumental variable approach, we find that more optimistic GDP growth expectations for a borrower country are strongly linked to increased credit supply. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in a lender’s GDP growth expectation for the borrower’s country corresponds to an increase of 8.46 percentage points in the loan share, equivalent to approximately 0.75 standard deviations of the loan share and $75.35 million in loan amount. In contrast, global banks’ short-term inflation expectations do not show a significant impact on their credit supply.

Title: Leveraging Probability Distortion to Target Prevention: A Cardiovascular Screening Experiment in the Philippines
(Joseph Capuno, Aleli Kraft, Jenny Kudymowa, Owen O’Donnell)

Abstract: We test whether a conditional cash lottery (CCL) targets prevention on inverse S probability distortion types who underestimate prevention gains and overestimate lottery chances. In the Philippines, we randomly offer a CCL requiring screening for cardiovascular risk and elicit probability distortion and cardiovascular risk perceptions. Consistent with theory, inverse S types perceiving intermediate risk are 3 percentage points (60%) less likely to go for a check-up at baseline. The CCL offer increases the probability by 47 points, on average. Compliance is not significantly higher for inverse S types, but the estimate is higher for those also perceiving intermediate risk.

Title: Gender equality through marriage
(Gloria Moroni, Cheti Nicoletti, Kjell Salvanes, Emma Tominey)

Abstract: We revisit the economic effects of marriage, analysing its heterogeneous impact on the intra-household labour division following childbirth. Can marriage promote coordination of work and child activities  between parents and a gender egalitarian division of labour? Using a marginal treatment effect framework, we find the average effect of marriage is to increase parental specialization and worsen the mother's child penalty. However, we find differences across couples with varying resistance to marriage. While traditional couples (low-resistance) exhibit increased specialization; in modern couples (high-resistance) fathers have an earnings penalty and take more paternity leave, suggesting more coordination and gender equality.

Title: Measuring the Sources of Taste-Based Discrimination Using List Experiments
(Ariel Listo, Ercio A. Muñoz, Dario Sansone)

Abstract: This paper examines how attitudes among supervisors, co-workers, and customers are related to discrimination against sexual minority individuals in the workplace. Participants from a large, nationally representative online sample in Chile took part in double list experiments – which reduce social desirability bias when eliciting views on sensitive topics – followed by direct questions on attitudes toward sexual minority individuals. The findings reveal a discrepancy between reported and actual levels of comfort with gay individuals in the labor market. The respondents underreported their discomfort by 15-23 percentage points, with the largest bias and lowest comfort levels observed when they were asked about supervising gay employees. These attitudinal patterns were mirrored in incentivized donation behavior: individuals who chose not to donate any amount from a lottery to a local LGBTQ-related nonprofit reported lower comfort levels and exhibited greater misreporting. Finally, the respondents consistently underestimated the broader societal support for gay employees and co-workers.

Title: Assimilate for God: Divergent Paths of Cultural and Economic Integration Among Danish Americans
(Jeanet Sinding Bentzen, Nina Boberg-Fazlic, Paul Sharp, Christian Volmar Skovsgaard, Christian Vedel)

Abstract: Religion has often been seen as a barrier to the cultural assimilation of immigrants. We examine the role of religion in the assimilation of Danish Americans using a difference-in-differences approach. A religious schism in 1883 split the community into “Happy” Danes, who prioritized cultural preservation, and “Holy” Danes, who emphasized assimilation. Using US census data and Danish American church and newspaper archives, we find that Danes in counties with Happy churches chose more Danish names for their children, while newspapers associated with Holy Danes Anglicized (i.e. incorporated more English words in otherwise Danish texts) more rapidly. Despite these differences in cultural assimilation, we find little difference in occupational outcomes, with Holy Danes performing only marginally better on the labor market. Results show the strength of religious messages for assimilation and suggest that cultural preservation need not hinder economic success, challenging conventional assumptions about the trade-off between assimilation and economic integration.

Title: A Framework for the Fair Pricing of Medicines: Next Steps
(Mike Paulden)

Abstract: As high-cost medicines put increasing pressure on public health care budgets, the need to identify 'fair' prices for medicines has never been greater. This paper proposes a framework, built upon fundamental economic principles, that allows for the consideration of 'fair' prices for medicines. The framework incorporates key considerations from conventional supply-side and demand-side approaches for specifying a cost-effectiveness 'threshold', including the health opportunity cost borne by other patients ([Formula: see text]) and society's willingness to pay for marginal improvements in population health ([Formula: see text]). The costs incurred by manufacturers in developing and supplying new medicines are also considered, as are the incentives for manufacturers to strategically price up to any common price per unit of benefit (cost-effectiveness 'threshold') specified by the payer. The framework finds that, at any 'fair' price, a medicine's dynamically calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) lies below [Formula: see text]. When pricing medicines collectively, the framework finds that a common price below [Formula: see text] is required to maximize population health (consumer surplus) or to maximize total welfare (consumer and producer surplus). This framework has important policy implications for payers who wish to improve population health outcomes from constrained health care budgets. In particular, existing approaches to 'value-based pricing' should be reconsidered to ensure that patients receive a 'fair' share of the resulting economic surplus. 

Title: Moral Characters: Social Media and Elections in the US
(Edoardo Grillo, Juan Morales, Alessandra Moresi)

Abstract: We study how politicians' adoption of social media affects electoral returns. Using a new dataset of around 13 million US House congressional candidates' tweets for 2008-2018, we first document new descriptive facts: social media use coincides with electoral cycles, politicians' use of moral rhetoric on Twitter increased over the period of study, and moral rhetoric is strongly associated with higher social media engagement. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) on close primary elections, we find that social media use by politicians has a causal effect on vote shares, and that the effect is driven by candidates' who tend to use moral rhetoric in their posts. We document that relative to other social media features (negativity, out-group animosity, etc) moral rhetoric drives positive engagement. Finally, we show that these candidates also receive increased coverage from mainstream news media.

Title: Going back to the high schools: Challenging stereotypes about economics
(Sarah Smith, Arun Advani, Laura Harvey)

Abstract: Stereotyped beliefs about subjects may distort subject choices – for example, the perception that economics is (only) about money may deter some students. We report on a UK-wide program of taster sessions that increased high-school students’ interest in studying economics. The sessions broadened students’ perception of economics: This accounted for 20 per cent of the increased interest. The sessions also changed students’ beliefs about studying economics. Particularly important were students’ increased beliefs that they would do well in economics and that they would enjoy it. Better information may reduce mismatch, particularly for students studying subjects for the first time. 

Title: On the fault line? The Irish economy in a time of geoeconomic fragmentation
(Fergal McCann, Cian Ruane)

Title: To inform, or not to inform—that is the question
(David Bilén, Mathias Ekström, Endre Kildal Iversen)

Abstract:  A growing literature shows that information-based (“soft”) policies may not be as costless as they seem: people actively avoid information about negative externalities, which has been interpreted as a “moral tax” on decision-makers. Accounting for this information (dis)utility has been shown to substantially reduce the estimated welfare benefits of information and nudge policies. This paper studies when and why third-party observers (“spectators”) from a U.S. general population sample choose to provide information about a negative externality to an uninformed decision-maker. We vary (i) whether the decision-maker prefers to receive information about the externality or prefers to remain uninformed, and (ii) whether the information affects the decision-maker’s choice to impose the externality or not. We find a pronounced willingness to provide information against someone’s will: about half of all spectators choose to inform even when doing so is Pareto inferior—that is, when the decision-maker prefers to remain uninformed and the information has no impact on their choice. A collection of supportive evidence suggest that the main determinant of spectators’ behavior is founded in a belief that individuals have a moral duty to be informed when their actions can have a negative impact on others. Our results suggest that a majority of the general public would endorse mandatory information provision about negative externalities even when it has no impact on choices and imposes information disutility on decision-makers. In relation to the welfare assessment of information policies, this implies that many people either believe that decision-makers’ information disutility should be disregarded in welfare analysis, or that they themselves derive positive utility from others making informed decisions, irrespective of whether the information affects the decision itself.

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