Title: "The generic competition un-paradoxed"

Abstract: This paper provides a simple explanation for the generic paradox, that is, the empirical observation that the price of many brand-name drugs increases after patent expiry and generic entry. This explanation is based on the different price setting mechanisms under patent protection and after. Before patent expiry, a monopoly producer and an insurer (public or private) generally negotiate drug prices. After patent expiry, generic producers can enter the market and compete in price with each other and the brand-name drug producer. Many insurers impose reference pricing so as to boost such competition. In our analysis, we derive conditions under which the prices of brand-name drugs increase after the patent expiration and the entry of generic competitors on the market. Using a simple and adapted model of Nash bargaining and one of imperfect price competition with reference pricing, we show that the generic paradox can occur whenever health insurance is generous enough and the perceived quality of generics by patients is poor.

Title: "Weather shocks and household impacts: Nigeria’s 2012 floods"

Abstract: Nigeria experienced severe flooding during the rainy season of 2012 which displaced 2 million people from their homes and caused an estimated $17 billion USD in damages. This paper examines the local impacts of the flood on livelihoods, which can be severe but are often overlooked in aggregate statistics. Combining panel household survey data before and after the flood with satellite imagery, we estimate the causal impact of the flood on affected households’ production and consumption, and uncover local spillovers and interactions with market factors. On average, we find affected farmers lost around 30% of crop production and over 50% of value. These impacts depend on the interaction between the individual and area-level measures of flood exposure. We also find evidence of adaptation to flood risk, with households living outside of historical flood zones experiencing more severe impacts from the 2012 event. The findings of this paper provide a more nuanced and comprehensive understanding of the local impacts of floods in sub-Saharan Africa and can help inform disaster risk management strategies in an era of increasing risk due to climate change.

Title: "Household Responses to Trade Shocks"

Abstract: We use large-scale panel data from linked decadal censuses in England and Wales to study the responses of both individuals and their partners to rising Chinese import competition in the 2000s. We test whether partners provide insurance against lost household earnings by increasing labour supply. We find that both own and partner responses to the shock vary significantly by gender. Men in households exposed to import competition respond by in- creasing labour force participation at older ages, and by moving into solo self-employment. This is true both in response to their own trade exposure, and as an ‘added worker effect’ when their partner is exposed to the shock. By contrast, we find no such response for women, who do not increase labour supply if their male partners were initially employed in exposed industries. In general, self-employment appears to act as an employment buffer for men but not women. The impacts of import competition on partnering and family dissolution also differ according to the gender of those affected: for women below 45, but not men, exposure to the trade shock reduces the likelihood of divorce and of living with a new partner. Over- all, our findings underscore the importance of investigating household responses, and the self-employment margin, to fully understand the effects of trade shocks.

Title: "Against Totalitarianism: The Value of a History Education in Countering Extremist Ideologies"

Abstract: How can democratic societies foster support for democratic institutions and inoculate citizens against authoritarian ideologies from the extremes of the political spectrum? We study whether history education about past authoritarian regimes serves this purpose successfully. To do so, we exploit an education reform in a large German state mandating that the topics covered in the last two years of the high school history curriculum rotate exogenously across graduating cohorts. As a result of this natural experiment, some cohorts only covered the far-left socialist regime of East Germany, whereas others only covered the far-right fascist regime of Nazi Germany. Surveying more than 1,500 former students a decade after graduation, we find that learning about East Germany relative to Nazi Germany increases knowledge of East German history and decreases support for extreme left-wing ideology. Attitudes towards extreme right-wing ideology are largely unaffected, consistent with high baseline levels of awareness about the pitfalls of far-right ideology in Germany.

Title: "Will I Ever Be Satisfied? Job Quality and Unionization"

Abstract: We study the relationship between hard-to-observe aspects of job quality and unionization in the U.S. economy. Establishments where workers report a decline in job quality are more likely to experience a unionization effort, even within the same firm. This dissatisfaction with job quality does not reflect differences or widening gaps in pay, but rather differences and widening gaps in working conditions such as culture, management, and work-life balance. Given the hard-to-observe nature of job quality, union organizing would appear to reflect grassroots movements from within. Even after workers successfully vote to unionize, job quality does not appear to improve. Though the exit-voice hypothesis argues unionization reduces employee turnover, our analysis suggests that the causation may run the other way, as workers who seek to unionize exhibit longer tenure and more dissatisfaction even before filing for representation.

Title: "The Origins of Commodity Price Fluctuations"

Abstract: We build indexes of commodity-price developments by simulating news reading. Our proposed computer-based, narrative approach is flexible and spans all commodity markets, including energy, metals, agricultural and livestock. Empirical evidence indicates that our indexes successfully distinguish between supply and demand. Index-peaks track the post-crisis collapse of commodity markets, market-specific developments, and the recent Covid-19 crisis. The richness of news content allows to further identify key drivers that shape commodity markets, including business cycle effects, geopolitical risk, natural disasters, and climate change. Results indicate that the nature of commodity price movements matters for macroeconomic outcomes, firms’ decisions, and asset prices.

Title: The intergenerational persistence of intimate partner violence

Abstract: This study examines the intergenerational persistence of intimate partner violence (IPV). Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 54 countries, I quantify the association between mothers and daughters in experiencing IPV. Daughters of victims are 58-88% more likely to experience emotional, physical or sexual violence perpetrated by an intimate partner. Evidence points toward mother-to-daughter and father-to-son transmission of attitudes toward IPV being a key driver of persistence. Daughters of victims marry men with more accepting attitudes to IPV, which in turn predicts incidence. Intergenerational persistence has fallen in countries that have increased gender equality and reduced acceptance of IPV.

Title: "The Low Emission Zone impacts on physical health and wellbeing in England using survey and administrative data"

Abstract: Air pollution is a global concern for its negative externalities on the climate, but also on the healthcare sector and human capital accumulation. Yet, there is scant evidence on the effectiveness of clean air transport policies. In these studies, we investigate the effects of London’s Low Emission Zone (LEZ) and Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on health and well-being. We exploit the temporal and spatial variation of these policies, implemented in Greater London (LEZ) and Central London (ULEZ) in 2008 and 2019, respectively. First, we use survey data from the Labour Force Survey and a difference-in-differences approach, and we find that U/LEZ have significantly reduced pollution. We also show improvements in health and well-being with LEZ reducing incidence of long-term health problems by 6% and respiratory problems by 8%. ULEZ has led to improvements in mental well-being with respect to feelings of worthiness and satisfaction as well as reduction in anxiety. These health effects translate in reductions of sick leave uptake by 14.4% of the pre-LEZ level and 0.5 percentage points for ULEZ. A back of the envelope cost-benefit analysis indicates savings for over £31M for the overall population. Second, we use administrative data from hospital records and show that LEZ has also reduced hospitalisation and mortality in Greater London. We find a reduction in primary care prescriptions for respiratory illnesses.

Title: "Proud to belong: the impact of ethics training on police officers" 

Abstract: We examine the impact of ethics and integrity training on police officers in Ghana through a randomized field experiment. The program, informed by theoretical work on the role of identity and motivation in organizations, aimed to re-activate intrinsic motivations to serve the public, and to create a new shared identity of “Agent of Change.” Data generated by a survey conducted 20 months later, show that the program positively affected officers' values and beliefs regarding on-the-job unethical behavior and improved their attitudes toward citizens. The training also lowered officers' propensity to behave unethically, as measured by an incentivized cheating game at endline. District-level administrative data for a subsample of districts is consistent with a significant impact of the program on field behavior in the short-run.

Title: "Medicaid-ing Uninsurance: Evidence from the 2019 Virginia Expansion"

Abstract: In this paper, we leverage novel administrative data to study the effects of expanded access to Medicaid following a job loss. We present detailed summary statistics describing individual coverage dynamics after losing access to an employer plan, including covariates associated with uninsurance spells. We exploit the late adoption of expanded Medicaid in Virginia to provide causal estimates of Medicaid expansion on the dynamics of health insurance coverage.  Using differences-in-differences, we estimate that among those dropping employer coverage due to unemployment, access to Medicaid increases the likelihood of finding coverage by 16% and reduces the duration of uninsurance by 12%. 

Title: "Folk Theorem under Bankruptcy"

Abstract: In this paper, we examine Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibria (SPNE) within an infinite horizon oligopolistic market, accounting for the possibility of firm bankruptcy. Central to our dynamic analysis is the concept of Bankruptcy-Free (BF) allocations. The consideration of bankruptcy introduces several distinctive features not encompassed by standard models of infinitely repeated games. Notably, when firms are sufficiently patient towards future outcomes, achieving certain collusive outcomes as equilibria may not be possible. We discern qualitatively different results depending on the number of firms in the market; in a duopoly, only specific BF allocations can be sustained as SPNE, while in scenarios with more than two firms, allocations outside the BF set can also be established as SPNE. In both instances, it is crucial that the payoffs are above the minimax BF payoff, a condition more restrictive than the standard minimax payoff advocated in Folk Theorems.

Title: "Worker mobility and productivity spillovers: An Emerging Market Perspective"

Abstract: This paper uses matched employer-employee data from South Africa to examine the extent to which technology transfers between firms through the hiring of workers. Allowing for differential spillovers based on observable technology differences between sending and receiving firms, we find strong evidence for positive productivity spillovers through worker mobility. The most important channel for productivity spillovers is firm-level worker training initiatives. In contrast to previous studies set in more advanced economies, our results suggest that negative spillovers also occur. Firms that hire workers from less productive firms experience a decline in productivity in the following year compared with similar firms that do not hire any workers. This can be explained by low-quality matches in the hiring of workers that lead firms to overvalue the workers that they hire leaving scope for negative productivity spillovers.

Title: "Factors enabling or impeding the scaling-up of citizen investments in renewable energy cooperatives"

Abstract: This study empirically investigates factors that alternatively enable or impede the scaling-up of citizen investments in renewable energy cooperatives (RECs). These factors include key features of a Consumer Stock Ownership Plan (CSOP), namely co-investments by firms, a capital-based voting rule, and the delegation of capital-based voting rights by citizen investors to a trustee. Analyzing data from a survey of 1022 adults in France through a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and a contingent valuation experiment (CVE) on stated investments in RECs, we find that participants value the opportunity to delegate their voting rights to a trustee but dislike the capital-based voting rule and co-investments by firms. While a capital-based voting rule weakens the stated propensity to invest, it increases the invested amount for participants who are willing to invest some amount. Higher rates of return and higher shares of self-consumption of electricity spur stated investments. These findings offer insights that can inform the transformation of business models to facilitate the scaling-up of RECs. In particular, unless a CSOP generates higher rates of return, it appears to face a trade-off between lower citizen participation rates and the leveraging of higher investment amounts from firms, municipalities, and potentially also citizens.

Title: "Banking on Deposit Relationships: Implications for Hold-Up Problems in the Loan Market"

Abstract: Theory suggests that by lending to a firm, inside banks gain an informational advantage over non-lender outside banks. This informational gap hinders borrowers from switching lenders due to a winner’s curse faced by competing outside banks, leading to hold-up problems. In this paper, we show that firms can reduce this informational gap by forming deposit relationships with outside banks, thereby attenuating hold-up. Using unique data on the deposit and lending relationships of all firm-bank pairs in Norway, we find that having a deposit relationship with non-lender outside banks significantly increases a firm’s likelihood of switching lenders. Furthermore, firms that have a prior deposit relationship with new lenders obtain significantly better loan conditions upon switching. In line with informational hold-up theory, these effects are driven by reduced information asymmetries, not cross-selling. Our findings have important implications for open banking and hold-up problems in the loan market.

Title: "The Incentives to (Not) Debate in Low-Information Races"

Abstract: Why are there few debates in low-information elections where they have the greatest potential to inform vote choices?  Consistent with weak incentives to reveal qualifications or make policy commitments, we find only a quarter of Parliamentary candidates in Sierra Leone privately volunteer to debate. Publicizing their choices through guaranteed dissemination platforms allows voters to punish those who abstain and sharply increases participation.  Randomly improving the platform’s quality induces frontrunners to join.  We document high voter willingness to pay to access debates and private sector interest in disseminating them, confirming that candidate reluctance and not market viability is the main barrier.