Appendix

Table 1. 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season analog years (1950-2021).

Table 2. 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season additional analog years (1950-2021).

Figure 1. (From Chiang & Vimont 2004) Spatial structures associated with the Pacific (left) and Atlantic (right) Meridional Modes. The top panels show the regression of SST (shading) and 10m wind (vectors) onto the (a) Pacific and (b) Atlantic Meridional Mode SST time series (the SST expansion coefficient from Maximum Covariance Analysis). The bottom panels show the regression of precipitation onto the (c) Pacific and (d) Atlantic Meridional Modes.

Figure 2. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis mean sea surface temperature anomalies for the North Atlantic (0⁰-60⁰N, 0⁰-120⁰W) for May 1 to May 30, 2022.

Figure 3. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis mean sea surface temperature anomalies for the North Atlantic (0⁰-60⁰N, 0⁰-120⁰W) for May 30, 2022.

Figure 4. NOAA Coral Reef Watch sea surface temperature anomaly time series for the Atlantic MDR (10⁰-20⁰N, 20⁰-85⁰W) from March 1 to June 1, 2022 via Alex Boreham (cyclonicwx.com).

Figure 5. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis mean sea surface temperature anomalies for the North Atlantic (0⁰-60⁰N, 0⁰-120⁰W) for May 1 to May 30, 2020 and 2021.

Figure 6. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis August-September-October mean sea surface temperature anomalies for the North Atlantic (0⁰-60⁰N, 0⁰-120⁰W) for 2020 and 2021.

Figure 7. NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory TAO/TRITON buoy array hovmöller of heat content and sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific (2⁰S-2⁰N) from June 1, 2021 to June 1, 2022.

Figure 8. May 2022 dynamical climate model forecast suites for ENSO Niño region 3.4 of both the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and International Multi-Model Ensemble through Fall 2022.

Figure 9. NOAA ERSST PDO Index from May 1998 through April 2022.

Figure 10. Precipitation rate anomalies for the NCEP/NCAR R1, JRA-55, ERA5, CMAP, GPCPv2.3, and GPCC datasets from 1958 to 2020 using a 5-year moving mean (via Stanfield and Ramseyer, 2022 Thesis).

Figure 11. Precipitation rate (mm/day) for February-March-April 2022 using the GPCP, CMAP, and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 data.

Figure 12. Winter (DJF) mean atmospheric motion diagram of the Global Walker Circulation.

Figure 13. Mean climatological difference between ERA5 and JRA-55 (averaged) and the NCEP/NCAR R1 for 1971-2020 climate period over each study region (via Stanfield and Ramseyer, 2022 Thesis).

Figure 14. ECMWF ERA5 200 hPa velocity potential anomalies from 1958-2021 using 5-year (left) and 1-year moving means to capture decadal and interannual tropical climate variability over key regions (equatorial Africa, Amazon Basin, equatorial Indonesia, and equatorial central Pacific).

Figure 15. NCEP/NCAR R1 mean 200 hPa velocity potential anomalies from March 1 to May 30, 2022. *Disclaimer: NCEP/NCAR R1 upper-level velocity potential variable has been found to be less reliable especially over the African (too negative) and South American (too positive) continents.

Figure 16. August-September-October 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomaly Correlation to North Atlantic ACE from 1980-2021 using CFSR, ERA5, JRA-55, NASA-MERRA2, NCEP R1, and NCEP R2 reanalysis datasets. Plot created by Eric Webb (webberweather.com)

Figure 17. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis global mean sea surface temperature anomalies for May 1 to May 30, 2022.