Research

Working Papers

Fighting Fire with Fire(fighting Foam): The Long Run Effects of PFAS Use at U.S. Military Installations [U.S. Census WP]  with I. Jacqz and J. Voorheis  

This paper estimates the short- and long-run effects of exposure to a major source of per- and poly-fluoroalkyl chemical (PFAS) pollution. PFAS were invented in the 1940s and found a wide variety of consumer and industrial uses, including fire-fighting foam (AFFF).  We combine the timing of AFFF adoption, which contaminated groundwater with PFAS, with variation in the location of fire training sites at U.S. military installations in the 1970s and 1980s to estimate the causal effect of AFFF exposure for millions of individuals in natality records and restricted administrative data. We find delayed but substantial effects on birthweights, college attendance, and earnings. These provide the first estimate of long-run economic costs of exposure to a source of PFAS, illustrating a major pollution externality from the U.S. military's domestic operations and the role of unregulated chemical pollution as a determinant of economic opportunity.

Grant: Russell Sage Foundation • Press: The Guardian 

Environmental Regulations, Imperfect Mobility, and the Gender Adaptation Gap [Draft] 

Is the transition to a green economy gender-neutral? The answer depends in part on how new regulations would interact with existing gender imbalances in the market and the extent to which workers are constrained in moving to green sectors. I develop and estimate a dynamic structural general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy that conceptualizes mobility costs for female and male workers who can change their sector in response to an energy tax. I find that female workers face twice the mobility costs of males to change their sector while leaving the market is equally costly for both and imposes higher costs. In after-tax scenarios, differences in the long-run welfare losses across genders are driven by mobility costs. I also study a particular case of a local labor market in which coal plays a substantial role, and initial gender disparities are more pronounced. My empirical setting exploits variation in coal-fired power plant closure announcements. I find that in anticipation of closure, female workers in carbon-intensive sectors are disproportionately affected. Both findings contribute to understanding the disparities women face in a green transition and reveal a mechanism for disparate effects by differentiating and quantifying mobility costs.

Disparities in PFAS Exposure [Draft available upon request] with I. Jacqz 

Disparities in pollution exposure are less understood for contaminants that lack consistent monitoring and binding regulation. A recent case is per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), now an active area of regulatory attention. We characterize the population who has access to PFAS contamination information and who does not have information but bears some risk of exposure, and who is able to act on that information. Linking predicted groundwater PFAS risk to drinking-water-source classifications, recent testing trends and two decades of sociodemographic data covering 2000 to 2024, we find low-income and non-white communities are more likely to be served by contaminated systems, and testing follows contamination risk.

Work in Progress

Extreme Weather, Hospital Closures, and Emergency Department Utilization in the United States with A. Earle