Publications

[Wiley] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This paper establishes a statistically and economically significant relationship between national responses to climate change and genetic distance, which is a proxy for countries' dissimilarities in cultures, ancestry, and historical legacies associated with long-term exposure to divergent historical trajectories. It finds that countries that are genetically distant to the world-leading nation-state of climate change mitigation tend to experience barriers to the cross-border diffusion of climate change policies and hence exhibit worse responses to climate change. A potential explanation is that climate change polices are more likely to spread between closely related countries with more similar preferences for the provision of the public goods of environmental and climate protection. The findings imply that strengthening climate change mitigation requires overcoming obstacles to international policy diffusion.

[Wiley] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

I study the impact of population diversity, determined predominantly over the prehistorical out-of-Africa migration process of anatomically modern humans, on present-day gender inequality. Leveraging variations across countries and individuals residing in the same country but descending from different prehistorically indigenous ethnic groups, I find that deep-rooted population diversity negatively affects women's economic and political empowerment. I provide several explanations for this finding. First, preindustrial societies with higher interpersonal diversity tended to experience early technological development, which primarily translated into fertility growth associated with lower women's social status during the Malthusian epoch. Second, population diversity was conducive to economic specialization, which co-evolved with and amplified the traditional gendered division of labour particularly in preindustrial societies with long agricultural histories. Finally, the early formation and prevalence of unequal gender roles in preindustrial times would gradually increase intergenerationally transmitted cultural beliefs about gender inequality, leading to wide and persistent disparities in gender roles across the contemporary world.

[Wiley] | [PDF]

Abstract

I provide new empirical estimates of the effect of state capacity on economic development across countries over the period 1960 – 2022. Specifically, I construct a comprehensive state capacity index based on 6 different dimensions of effective state institutions available in the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset. Then, I estimate heterogeneous parameter models under a common factor framework. My empirical strategy explicitly allows the growth effect of state capacity to differ across countries and accounts for unobserved common factors. My preferred estimates indicate that a one-standard-deviation increase in my V-Dem-based state capacity index predicts a rise in income per person by roughly 6 – 7%. The magnitude of such impact equates to less than half of that implied by conventional estimates obtained under highly restrictive assumptions of slope homogeneity and cross-sectional independence. Furthermore, I provide partial evidence suggesting that worldwide heterogeneity in the economic importance of state capacity is deeply rooted in prehistorically determined population diversity, state history, long-term relatedness between countries, and interpersonal trust.

[OUP] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

I use a novel dichotomous measure of democracy to simulate a quasi-natural experiment and implement a difference-in-differences analysis to identify the heterogeneous treatment effect of democracy on population health across countries from 1960 to 2010. To counteract potential sources of bias resulting from unparallel and stochastic trends between treated and control units, I adopt a principal components difference-in-differences estimator that exploits factor proxies constructed from control units to account for unobserved trends. The main results indicate that countries that transitioned from non-democracy to democracy are more likely to experience health improvements, compared to countries retaining non-democratic institutions. However, the health-enhancing impact of democratization turns out to be much smaller in size than previously established. I posit that conventional estimates exaggerate the economic significance of the health returns to democratization due to inadequate attention to cross-border spillovers, global common shocks, and worldwide heterogeneity in the democracy-health nexus. 

[UW Press] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This article establishes empirically that a persistent culture of “rugged individualism”, captured by exposure to the American westward-moving frontier from 1790 to 1890, undermines pro-climate perceptions, environmental performance, and climate change preparedness across counties in the United States. It also demonstrates that individualism is associated with environmental underperformance at the state level, making it more difficult to mitigate the far-reaching consequences of changing climate conditions. To establish external validity of the subnational evidence, I employ a global sample of up to 97 countries and provide suggestive evidence that individualism creates barriers to climate change responses worldwide.

[Wiley] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This article hypothesizes and empirically establishes that statehood experience, accumulated over a period of up to six millennia, lies at the deep roots of the spatial distribution of political instability across non-European countries. Using the state history index measured between 3,500 BCE and 2000 CE, I consistently obtain precise estimates that long-standing states outside Europe, relative to their newly established counterparts, are characterized by greater political uncertainty. I postulate that a very long duration of state experience impeded the transplantation of inclusive political institutions by European colonizers, which would eventually become central to shaping countries' ability to establish politically stable regimes outside Europe. The core findings place emphasis on the long-term legacy of early state development for contemporary political instability.

[OUP] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This article explores the role of long-term relatedness between countries, captured by an index of genetic distance, in driving worldwide differences in income inequality. The main hypothesis is that genetic distance gives rise to barriers to the international diffusion of redistributive policies and measures, and institutions, leading to greater income disparities. Using cross-country data, I consistently find that countries that are genetically distant to Denmark—the world frontier of egalitarian income distribution—tend to suffer from higher inequality, ceteris paribus. I also demonstrate that genetic distance is associated with greater bilateral differences in income inequality between countries. Employing data from the European Social Survey, I document that second-generation Europeans descending from countries with greater genetic distance to Denmark are less likely to exhibit positive attitudes towards equality. Further evidence suggests that effective fiscal redistribution is a key mechanism through which genetic distance to Denmark transmits to greater income inequality.

[Wiley] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This paper re-examines a well-established hypothesis postulating that life expectancy augments incentives for human capital accumulation, leading to global income differences. A major distinguishing feature of the current study is to estimate heterogeneous panel data models under a common factor framework, which explicitly accounts for parameter heterogeneity, unobserved common factors (UCFs), and variables' non-stationarity. In sharp contrast to most previous studies, I find that the impact of health improvements on human capital accumulation turns out to be imprecisely estimated at conventionally accepted levels of statistical significance. I demonstrate that conventional estimates of the educational returns to rising longevity are derived from estimating misspecified models at least partially due to parameter heterogeneity and the presence of UCFs.

[Elsevier] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This paper explores the effect of state history, measured from 3500 BCE to 2000 CE, on control of corruption. Using cross-country data, we find that the relationship between the capacity to control corruption and accumulated statehood experience follows a hump-shaped (inverted-U) pattern. This result is robust to using alternative measures of state history or corruption, controlling for other measures of early development and contemporary determinants of corruption, and removing outliers.

[Elsevier] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to investigate potential political barriers to fostering an egalitarian redistribution of income within an economy. It empirically establishes that countries characterized by the prevalence of political instability are less likely to adopt progressive income redistribution. Employing data for up to 143 countries between 1996 and 2015, I consistently find evidence that political instability has a negative impact on effective fiscal redistribution, captured by the difference between market and net income inequality. Further analyses indicate that the economic and statistical significance of the redistributive impact of political instability is stronger in non-democratic and highly diverse societies, and low-income economies. Hence, the detrimental effect of political uncertainty on effective fiscal redistribution appears to hold only in non-democratic, fragmented and low-income countries. The findings imply that reducing political instability contributes to establishing an egalitarian redistribution of income, potentially leading to less income inequality.

[Springer] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This study investigates the role of institutions in shaping international differences in economic complexity—a novel measure of productive capabilities. More specifically, economic complexity corresponds to an enhanced capacity to produce and export a diverse range of sophisticated (high-productivity) products. This paper hypothesizes that there exists a positive association between institutional quality and economic complexity. The underlying intuition is that well-functioning institutions fundamentally drive structural transformation towards productive activities via strengthening incentives for innovative entrepreneurship, fostering human capital accumulation, and deploying human resources in acquiring productive capabilities. Employing data for up to 115 countries, I consistently obtain precise estimates of the positive effect of institutional quality, measured by the Economic Freedom of the World Index, on economic complexity. The main findings advocate for establishing a pro-development institutional environment, which helps attenuating the persistence of underdevelopment by fostering economic complexity.

[Elsevier] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This research empirically establishes that interpersonal population diversity helps explain worldwide differences in climate change policies. It advances the hypothesis that heterogeneity in the composition of genetic traits, originating from the prehistoric course of the exodus of Homo sapiens from East Africa tens of thousands of years ago, is a major barrier to implementing stringent climate-friendly policies and measures. The underlying intuition is that genetically fragmented societies, characterized by mistrust, preference heterogeneity and persistent poor-quality institutions, find it difficult to sustain collective climate action. Using data for 84 world economies, I find evidence that prehistorically determined genetic diversity has a negative influence on the stringency of climate-related policies and measures. Furthermore, I document that descendants of ancestral societies with greater genetic diversity are less likely to exhibit pro-climate behavior, consistent with a mechanism of inter-generational transmission of cultural norms of mistrust and non-cooperation. The findings suggest that strengthening national responses to changing climate conditions requires considering the long-term legacy of interpersonal population diversity.

[Wiley] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This paper establishes that the worldwide distribution of political instability has its deep historical roots in genetic diversity, predetermined over the prehistoric course of the exodus of Homo sapiens from East Africa tens of thousands of years ago. It proposes that the relationship between prehistorically determined genetic diversity and contemporary political instability follows a U-shaped pattern. More specifically, genetic diversity at first reduces the persistence of political instability by increasing the opportunity cost of engaging in riots and revolts. However, genetically fragmented societies tend to suffer from interpersonal mistrust and the under-provision of public goods, which plausibly undermine the establishment of politically stable regimes. Using an ancestry-adjusted index of predicted genetic diversity, this paper consistently finds precise estimates that genetic diversity imparts a U-shaped influence on different measures of political instability and the probability of observing the occurrence of riots and revolts across 141 countries. Furthermore, the contribution of genetic diversity to political instability is at least partially mediated through income/productivity levels, the provision of public goods, income inequality and social trust.

[Wiley] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

It has been commonly observed that tropical countries tend to suffer from intense corruption and underdevelopment. This study provides an explanation for this long-standing disparity across the world based on variation in the intensity of ultraviolet radiation (UV-R). The central hypothesis is that UV-R is positively associated with the (historical) prevalence of eye diseases, which significantly shortens work-life expectancy as a skilled worker. This helps shape the worldwide distribution of corruption by affecting the incumbents' window of opportunity. Using data for up to 139 countries, I consistently find empirical support for the positive relationship between UV-R and corruption. The main findings withstand accounting for numerous alternative explanations for international differences in corruption levels. Employing individual-level data from the World Values Survey, I document suggestive evidence that exposure to UV-R is linked to surveyed respondents' tolerance towards corrupt activities. Furthermore, a subnational analysis for China lends credence to the cross-country evidence.

[Elsevier] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of accumulated statehood experience on contemporary income inequality. Previous studies reveal numerous “proximate” causes of income inequality, but little is known about the fundamental determinants of this widespread social concern. The novelty of this paper lies in the adoption of a historical approach that sheds light on the deep historical roots of cross-country differences in income inequality. The central hypothesis is that statehood experience, measured by the extended state history index, exerts persistent impacts on present-day income inequality. Employing data for 128 countries, I find strong and robust evidence of a U-shaped relationship between state history and income inequality. Accumulated statehood experience, up to a point, strengthens fiscal and legal capabilities, leading to a more egalitarian distribution of income. However, excessive state experience is associated with early emergence of extractive institutions and powerful elites, resulting in persistent inequality. Further analyses suggest that the distributional effects of state history are mediated through institutions.

[Springer] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the social inclusion of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people, and technological innovation. It empirically establishes that LGBT inclusion helps foster human capital skills, thus strengthening national innovative capacity. Exploiting cross-country data, this research provides suggestive evidence that social tolerance towards homosexuality is positively correlated with the economic complexity index, a novel measure of cross-country differences in innovative capabilities. Individual-level analyses, based on data from the World Values Survey, reveal that surveyed respondents who self-report tolerance towards homosexual acts tend to have positive attitudes towards technological innovation, ceteris paribus. This lends credence to the international evidence. Further analyses indicate that the link between LGBT inclusion and innovation is partially mediated through the accumulation of human capital. The main findings suggest that the social exclusion of LGBT people, at least to some extent, impedes long-run economic development by hindering innovative activities.

[Elsevier] | [PDF] | [Online Appendix]

Abstract

Do a country's economic structures matter for its national health status? This study, for the first time, examines the extent to which the mix of products a country produces (and exports) affects population health. For this purpose, I employ the economic complexity index (ECI) that relies on the sophistication of export bundles to extract information on the availability of productive capabilities within an economy. Using unbalanced panel data for 103 countries between 1970 and 2015, this paper documents strong and robust evidence that countries exporting complex (high productivity) products, on average, enjoy better health outcomes, compared with those whose economic structures are mainly based on unsophisticated (low productivity) products. Additionally, there exists evidence that a key channel through which ECI transmits to health improvements is via strengthening employment opportunities. It follows from these findings that health improvements can be fostered by structural transformation toward producing a more diverse range of sophisticated products.

[Springer] | [PDF]

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between economic complexity, a measure of economic structures, and income inequality. Using cross-country OLS regression analysis, we show that countries with economic structures geared toward complex products have less inequality. Human capital is found to magnify this correlation but with subtle interaction effects. Concerns about endogeneity bias in the OLS estimates stemming from reverse causality motivate us to estimate a dynamic panel data model, using a system GMM estimator. From the system GMM estimates we find that an increase in economic complexity provokes higher inequality, not less.