Policy Notes & Blogs
Policy Notes & Blogs
(with Sofía Ruiz Romanos, Dilyara Salakhova)
Link (here)
-- Press coverage: La Tribune
This blog post builds on the NGFS’s short-term climate scenarios to assess the risk of a financial market correction caused by a series of natural disasters. In the event of extreme climate shocks, French banks, insurers and asset managers would be exposed to losses of EUR 196 billion, equivalent to a 4% drop in the value of their equity and bond portfolios.
Bloc-notes Eco, 449, April 2026, Banque de France.
(with Sofía Ruiz Romanos, Dilyara Salakhova, Paul Champey, Léopold Gosset, Xavier Jacquemier, Pierre Sola, Fulvio Pegoraro)
Link (here)
-- Press coverage: Option Finance
If the transition to a low-carbon economy were to be delayed, abrupt and uncoordinated, it could lead to substantial losses on the financial markets. According to the forward-looking indicator presented in this article, equities would be the most exposed financial assets at global level, facing a sharp correction of 6.8% on average. However this number would vary considerably across different sectors. It could amount to as much as -24% for fossil fuels, where some companies would lose most of their value. Corporate and sovereign bonds would be less sensitive to these developments. The French financial sector (i.e. banks, insurers and investment funds) appears capable of absorbing the transition risk, particularly thanks to the sectoral diversification of portfolios, however, some players could face greater losses. These estimates do not take aggravating factors into account: the difficulties of adapting physical capital, the potential amplification of financial shocks, and the materialisation of physical risks linked to climate change whose effects could prove more severe in the medium term.
Bulletin, 262, article 2, March 2026, Banque de France.
Link (here)
Financial stability report, December 2025, Banque de France. (p21)
(with Maxime Barthe & Thomas Choquet)
Link (here)
Where firms fail to disclose their carbon emissions, the data can be estimated using machine learning models, which yield better predictive performances than standard methods. When combined with human expertise, these models can fill in gaps in the data and refine the assessment of transition risk.
Bloc-notes Eco, 421, December 2025, Banque de France.
(with Quentin Moreau)
Link (here)
Policy Briefs, May 2025, E-Axes Forum.
(with Valérie Chouard)
Link (here)
To finance an environmentally-friendly project, firms can opt to issue green bonds. This study finds that investors are willing to accept slightly lower yields on green bonds. However, this premium (or “greenium”) fluctuates over time, and varies according to euro area country, sector and the green label obtained.
Bloc-notes Eco, 380, December 2024, Banque de France.
(with Martin Saillard)
Link (here)
Financial stability report, December 2024, Banque de France. (p37)
(with Dilyara Salakhova)
Link (here)
Financial stability report, December 2024, Banque de France. (p52)
Link (here)
Financial stability report, June 2024, Banque de France. (p24)
(with Thibaut Piquard and Dilyara Salakhova)
Link (here)
-- Press coverage: Les Echos, Responsible Investor, Variances
As France undergoes the transition to a low-carbon economy, the financial sector must manage the associated risks and contribute to its financing. The sector's exposure to climate transition risk is far from negligible, while securities and loan portfolios are still not adequately aligned with European low-carbon transition targets.
Bloc-notes Eco, 348, March 2024, Banque de France.
Présentation lors des Entretiens de la Finance Durable, organisés par AFFI, Af2i et Amafi (Kedge Business School Paris)
Link (here)
(with Kolotcholoma Koné, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)
Link (here)
-- Quoted by Agefi (Link 1 & 2), AFP & L'info durable (Link).
Investment funds are exposed to the risks associated with climate change, and especially to transition risks. There are two possible channels of transmission: a fall in the value of the financial assets in fund portfolios (notably “brown assets” which are those issued by companies carrying out activities that are bad for the climate); and investor outflows caused by changes in investor behaviour in response to climate challenges. French funds steadily sold off certain types of brown assets between 2011 and late 2022, and appear to be less exposed to climate risks than their European peers. However, climate risks remain significant and still pose a threat to numerous funds, as an average of 24% of portfolio assets were still brown at the end of 2022. This relatively high share of brown assets also affects the climate risk exposure of financial actors holding shares in these funds (e.g. insurers).
Bulletin, 248, article 7, November 2023, Banque de France.
Link (here)
-- Press coverage: Variances
The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a change in the structure of interconnections between financial markets. While the contagion effects have remained limited overall, the war has brought about new negative correlations between certain commodity indices (aluminium, oil, gold, silver, wheat) on the one hand, and equity markets, particularly in Europe, on the other.
Bloc-notes Eco, 270, May 2022, Banque de France.
Link (here)
December 2021, Banque de France.
(as a member of the Editorial board)
(with Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, Banque de France)
-- Press coverage: Variances, Vox-Fi
Given the recent outperformance of those sectors best-positioned to accompany the ecological transition, some commentators have voiced fears that a bubble might be emerging in “green” equities. A systematic analysis based on the environmental scores (the “E “in ESG) of over 2,500 stocks in the Datastream Global Equity Index suggests that these fears may be overdone.
Bloc-notes Eco, 235, October 2021, Banque de France.
Longchamp Asset Management, Global Macro Strategy, October 2019
Longchamp Asset Management, Quantitative Asset Allocation, June 2019
Longchamp Asset Management, Stratégie d'investissement, février 2019