Research

1. Fertility Decisions and the Norm of Intergenerational Support to Aging Parents (with Minchung Hsu), International Studies of Economics, Wiley, 2024, 19:1, 151-165. 

2. Macro-demographics and Ageing in Emerging Asia: The Case of Indonesia (with George Kudrna and John Piggott), Journal of Population Ageing 15, 7–38 (2022). 

Job Market Paper

Fertility and Education Investment: the Role of Social Norms (with George Kudrna and John Piggott), Job Market Paper, Under Review.

CEPAR Working Paper 

This paper studies how the social norm of intergenerational support, where parents anticipate financial assistance from their adult children in old age, influences fertility and education investment decisions in developing countries. We develop a dynamic life-cycle model with uncertain labor income and endogenous fertility and education choices, incorporating expectations of private transfers driven by this norm. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, we estimate labor income profiles and income risks, account for parental financial constraints, and document the prevalence of intergenerational transfers in the 2000s. The model is calibrated to match key empirical patterns in fertility and schooling. Counterfactual simulations reveal that a weakening of this social norm leads to declines in both fertility and educational investment, particularly among lower-educated parents. Our findings underscore the central role of intergenerational transfers in shaping demographic and human capital outcomes and provide new insights into the persistence of educational inequality in developing economies. 

Working Papers

1. Fertility and Human Capital Investment in the Jam

How is low fertility associated with low income? This paper proposes an explanation for this puzzle in the interactive effects of two particular market failures: (i) borrowing constraint - the restricted access to the financial market; and (ii) property right constraint - the limited right of parents over children's income. I construct and analyse a life cycle model of endogenous fertility, education investment, and two-sided intergenerational transfer in the context where both constraints are present. The analysis shows that lower-income families are more likely to face the restrictions, which significantly dampens fertility and education to inefficiently low levels. This result suggests that at the aggregate level, a low fertility rate associated with low income reflects the status of a poor society struggling against the binding. Although the observable distortion is ruled by either one constraint that exerts the dominant impact, the other is still silently active in tandem. As a result, a policy addressing fertility-related inefficiency must take into account the existence of both frictions.

2. Consumption Inequality and Risk Sharing over the Life Cycle in Developing Economies: Informal Employment and the COVID-19 Crisis (with Mutita Ariyavutikul, Minchung Hsu and Trisukon Sawatrukkiat), R&R in Review of Development Economics.

PIER Working Paper 

This paper examines life-cycle patterns of earnings and consumption inequality in a developing economy, focusing on employment informality, risk sharing, and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using household survey data from Thailand, with robustness checks for Indonesia and Vietnam, we find that in Thailand both earnings and consumption inequality rise with age during prime working years, and earnings inequality continues to increase after retirement. Inequality patterns differ by employment status: formalworker- headed households show limited risk sharing at younger ages, while informal-worker-headed households display flatter consumption-inequality profiles, with consumption inequality generally below earnings inequality. During the COVID-19 period, overall inequality declined, but consumption inequality increased among younger households. Finally, a standard life-cycle model calibrated to match earnings inequality fails to replicate the observed age profile of consumption inequality, suggesting that key developing-economy features, such as informal insurance mechanisms, are not fully captured. 

3. The Labor Market Friction and Education Investment in Developing Countries

The paper takes a deeper dive into labor market dynamics, further enhancing our understanding of the multifaceted factors shaping parental decisions in developing economies. I first document the highly persistent informal sector, the earning gap between the formal and informal sectors, and the effect of parents' social network (using the working sector status of the parents as a proxy) on the children’s occupation. I show that inequality in the opportunity to secure a good job (particularly in the formal sector) distorts education investment because it creates differing returns to education. When measures are taken to improve equality in job opportunities, education investment increases, particularly for children with parents working in the informal sector. 

4. The Impacts of Increased Import Competition from the People’s Republic of China on Income Inequality and Household Welfare in Vietnam, (with Matthias Helble and Long Trinh), ADBI Working Paper No. 864, 2018. 

5. Global Value Chain and Formality in Vietnam , (with Matthias Helble and Long Trinh), ERIA Working Paper No. 298, 2019. 

Work in Progress

1. Social Norm Change and Education Disparity by Gender 

2. Ageing, Cohort Dynamics, and Inequality: The case of Vietnam (with Philip O’Keefe, John Piggott, and Rafal Chomik)

3. Economic Inequality and Informal Insurance among Rural Households: The Role of Family Transfers (with Mutita Ariyavutikul and Minchung Hsu)

4. Life-cycle Earnings and Returns to Education for Formal and Informal Workers (with Minchung Hsu)

Other publication

1. Sectoral and Skill Contributions to Labor Productivity in Asia (book chapter), (with Matthias Helble and Long Trinh), Leveraging Services for Development: Prospects and Policies, ADBI Press, 2019. 

2. Trade Balance in Face with Aging Population: Japan Experience (book chapter), (with Yoshino Naoyuki), Studies in International Economics and Finance, Springer, 2022. 

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