"Fiscal Uncertainty and Labor Market Dynamics in France: A Matching Model Approach" supervised by Julien Albertini, 2025
Abstract : This thesis investigates the impact of fiscal uncertainty on French labor market dynamics using a matching model augmented with a stochastic labor tax. Solved via a third-order perturbation method to capture nonlinearities, the model is calibrated to French data. The results show that while fiscal uncertainty has a limited impact during stable periods, it significantly amplifies unemployment, reduces job creation, and increases wage rigidity during economic downturns. These state-dependent effects demonstrate that fiscal uncertainty acts as a cyclical amplifier rather than an autonomous driver, highlighting the importance of predictable tax policies for labor market stability
"Breaking the poverty and poor-health trap : A structural analysis of informality in South Africa", with Julien Albertini and Anthony Terriau, 2026
Abstract : Using National Income Dynamics Study data, we develop and estimate a life-cycle search-and-matching model with endogenous education and a dual labor market to analyze informality, health, and education in South Africa. We show that informal employment and poor health mutually reinforce a persistent poverty trap. An optimal policy reform combining tertiary education subsidies, a broader tax base, and lower earnings taxes simultaneously increases employment, welfare, and health while maintaining fiscal balance.