Taejun Mo

Job Market Paper

Mo, T. Climate Change, Agricultural Production, and International Trade [Link]

Abstract: We investigate how climate-induced changes in agricultural productivity will reshape global agricultural trade patterns, and how trade policy mediates these effects. We employ a structural gravity model combining econometric and counterfactual simulation-based analyses using spatially resolved data reflecting anticipated productivity impacts for six major crops. Our analysis yields three main findings: (1) climate change will significantly alter the geography of global agricultural production and trade, (2) trade offers a crucial mechanism through which the impacts of climate change can be mitigated, and (3) trade liberalization can further amplify the role of trade in buffering the economic effects of climate change.

Refereed Publications

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Mo, T., Dall'erba, S., Ridley, W., Xu, Y., & Yim, H. (2026). The Impact of Autonomous Truck Technology on US Interstate Trade. Forthcoming, Journal of Regional Science [Link]

Abstract: Recent advances in autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicle technologies promise substantial cost savings for goods shipped by truck. In this study, we quantify the impacts of these transport cost reductions on the US interstate trade using a structural gravity model of domestic trade. Based on projected cost savings from the widespread adoption of self-driving technologies, we estimate significant increases in total interstate trade value. State-level impacts vary from 40.3% of GDP in Mississippi to 5.9% in Florida, while the largest impacts in dollar value are observed in Texas and New York. The sectoral analysis highlights motorized vehicles, mixed freight, and electronics as the industries experiencing the largest trade value growth. Additionally, goods with low value-to-weight ratios—where shipping costs represent a large share of the delivered value—are expected to benefit most in relative terms. These findings underscore the transformative potential of autonomous vehicle technologies in reshaping US trade patterns and sectoral dynamics.

Mo, T., & Kim, B. H. (2026). Analyzing substitution effects between FCEVs and EVs in South Korea’s zero-emission market. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 155, 105294 [Link]

Abstract: The Korean government provides substantial subsidies to promote Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) as part of its decarbonization strategy. This study examines consumer choice behavior and competitive market structure in Korean passenger car market through empirical analysis to understand the effectiveness of this subsidy-centric approach. Using nested logit model, we find that the cross-price elasticity between FCEVs and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) is near zero, indicating that FCEV subsidies primarily induce substitution from other Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEVs), particularly Electric Vehicles (EVs). Policy simulations demonstrate that achieving a modest FCEV sales target requires substantial additional subsidies, yielding a negligible net increase in total ZEVs relative to the fiscal cost. Overall, our empirical findings suggest that standalone FCEV subsidies have limited effectiveness as a decarbonization instrument in the presence of strong market segmentation. These findings indicate that policies empirically reflecting consumer behavior could be more effective in achieving broader transportation sector decarbonization goals.

Mo, T., & Dall'erba, S. (2025). Uncovering the key bilateral trade linkages in the US domestic food supply chain through disruption simulations. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 5, 154–179 [Link]

Abstract: This paper uses counterfactual simulations to examine the impact of bilateral trade linkage disruptions on the U.S. agricultural and food trade system. Using an econometric gravity model, we estimate the relationship between disruptions and trade flows, identify critical state-to-state trade linkages whose disruption would significantly impact domestic trade and national welfare, and extend the analysis to the state level to measure the consequences of disruptions to individual states' interstate trade linkages. The findings offer valuable insights for mitigating the impacts of bilateral trade linkage disruptions and transport cost shocks on the U.S. agricultural and food trade system.

Mo, T., Lee, H., Oh, S., Lee, H., & Kim, B. H. (2022). Economic Efficiency of Climate Smart Agriculture Technology: Case of Agrophotovoltaics. Land, 12(1), 90 [Link]

Abstract: Climate change must be the most serious environmental crisis of the present human generation. While corresponding climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices are emerging, the extent to which CSA is profitable to farmers is unclear. In this paper, we focus on agrophotovoltaics (APV), one of the CSA policies intensively pursued by the Korean government, to analyze the profitability of APV and its implications for rural sustainability. First, we consider the total profit of farms before and after APV installation by a region through generalized least squares (GLS) to verify that APV has overall profitability through the region. Additionally, we estimate farms’ productivity by region with a generalized method of moments (GMM) to compare with the results of the profitability. We predict that APV installation will be more profitable than not installing, and the regions with lower productivity will show higher profitability than other regions. The results are in line with the prediction. The profitability of APV is verified in all regions, and the order of profitability by region and productivity by region are opposite to each other. It suggests that regions with lower productivity may have a higher preference for installing APV, implying the installation of APV provides a new incentive to continue farming even in regions with low agricultural productivity. These results have an important policy implication on rural sustainability since the implementation of CSA could generate a sound and sustainable farming environment by addressing the challenges of climate change.

Mo, T., & Kim, B. H. (2020). Changes in Profitability of a Double Cropping using the Carbon Fixation Method [In Korean]. Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning, 26(2), 61-70 [Link]

Non-Refereed Publications

Dall’erba, S., Ridley, W., Xu, Y., Mo, T., & Yim, H. (2023). The impact of driverless trucks on national and state-level trade (Research Report No. I-ACT-01). Illinois Center for Transportation, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Working Papers

Click a title to view the abstract, full papers are available upon request.

Mo, T., Hochman, G., & Ridley, W. Global Hydrogen Trade in Transition

Abstract: Trade in hydrogen is poised to fundamentally reshape global markets for renewable energy. We quantify how anticipated changes in hydrogen production capacity are expected to reconfigure international hydrogen trade patterns and how trade policy and geopolitical fragmentation will mediate these adjustments. To do so, we employ a structural gravity approach that combines estimation and simulation analyses. Our counterfactual simulations reveal that anticipated growth in international hydrogen production will significantly alter the global distribution of renewable energy production, consumption, and trade. However, increasing geopolitical fragmentation is estimated to generate significant adjustment frictions within hydrogen supply chains via trade reallocation and trade destruction effects.

Mo, T., Nino, G., & Ridley, W. Trade, Trucks, and Landslides: The Impact of Natural Disasters on Domestic Trade

Abstract: Disruptions to supply chain transportation networks, such as natural disasters, can generate substantial economic costs. This paper combines data on more than 1,200 road-related landslides with seven years of weekly domestic trade data in Colombia to estimate the effects of transportation network disruptions on domestic trade and welfare. Using a structural gravity framework, we show that landslides reduce trade by increasing transport frictions. However, their welfare effects are not uniform and disruptions reallocate trade across regions, generating both winners and losers. Our results show that regions with stronger export orientation experience welfare gains when landslides occur, while regions more dependent on imports experience welfare losses. These effects reflect both direct bilateral impacts and indirect multilateral adjustments across the domestic trade network.

Mo, T., Choi, D., Ridley, W., & Xu, Y. Charging Deserts, Route Choice, and the Electrification of Interstate Trade

Abstract: The electrification of freight transportation promises large cost reductions, but these gains depend on where new technologies can operate. This paper examines how charging infrastructure constraints shape the adoption and trade impacts of electric and autonomous electric trucking. We map heavy-duty charging stations onto the U.S. road network and develop a structural gravity framework in which bilateral freight costs depend on route feasibility and technology choice among diesel, electric, and autonomous electric trucks. We find that existing charging gaps fragment the national freight network, leaving major East–West trade flows dependent on diesel trucking. Targeted infrastructure investments can remove key bottlenecks and generate broad network benefits, while autonomous trucking substantially amplifies these gains once charging constraints are resolved.

Mo, T., Ridley, W., & Xu, Y. Quantifying First-Mover Advantages in Autonomous Electric Trucking and Interstate Trade Among U.S. States

Abstract: The adoption of autonomous electric trucking promises large reductions in freight costs, but states are moving at different speeds. This paper examines how staggered adoption shapes the distribution of gains across the U.S. interstate trade network. We estimate a structural gravity model on commodity-level freight data and simulate general equilibrium counterfactuals in which transport cost reductions accrue only to states according to their observed policy commitments. We find that early-adopting states in the Northeast and West capture concentrated export gains, while the Midwest is initially left out. These gains propagate along the trade network, so that non-adopting neighbors benefit from the adoption decisions of others. Once adoption becomes universal, welfare gains are widespread but modest relative to trade volumes, and states with pre-existing cost advantages see their relative position erode.

In Preparation

Mo, T., Choi, D., & Nino, G. Dynamic Route Distance and Agricultural Trade in Colombia

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