Tim Ruberg

Job Market Paper

Unveiling the Unseen Illness: Public Health Warnings and Heat Stroke (with Lester Lusher)
[Job Market Paper] [IZA DP]
Previously "Killer Alerts? Public Health Warnings and Heat Stroke in Japan"

Abstract: We investigate the behavioral and health responses to the first comprehensive heat-health warning system in Japan, where alerts were issued in a region when the forecasted wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) exceeded 33°C. For identification, we utilize plausibly exogenous region-day variation in the difference between actual and forecasted WBGT (i.e. forecasting errors), paired with data from Google Trends, Google Mobility Reports, ambulance records, energy consumption behavior, and our own survey. We find that the alerts led to a large and precisely estimated \emph{increase} in heat stroke counts of 17%. Our evidence suggests that the effect is driven by increased reporting of otherwise unidentified cases. We rule out other potential mechanisms, such as ``adverse'' behavior and substitution in health diagnoses away from other sudden illnesses. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest at least 4.4\% of heat strokes go undetected on average. The effects in low-income neighborhoods are four times the effect in magnitude, highlighting severe environmental inequalities in reporting behavior.

Publications

Education-Oriented and Care-Oriented Preschools: Implications on Child Development (with Hideo Akabayashi, Chizuru Shikishima, and Jun Yamashita)
Labour Economics

Abstract: This paper estimates the causal effect of education-oriented vs. care-oriented preschools on child development. We use a unique quasi-experiment from Japan that exploits plausibly exogenous regional and temporal variation in the relative availability of different preschools. We find that attendance at an education-oriented preschool is associated with significant improvements in mathematical and linguistic achievement that manifest later in adolescence. Positive effects can also be found for socioemotional measures. Ascending marginal treatment effect (MTE) curves suggest an inverse selection pattern: children that are least likely to enroll in the education-oriented preschool gain the most from it. This heterogeneity is mainly due to specific features of education-oriented preschools (i.e., educational orientation, the interaction with parents due to shorter operating hours, and peer effects), while gains from enrollment in care-oriented preschools appear more homogeneous.

Working Paper

Heterogeneity in Long-Term Returns to Education: An Inconvenient Truth (with Philipp Kugler and Anne Zühlke) 

[IAW DP]

Abstract: This paper studies the long-term relationship between parental and child education in Germany, where children are tracked into academic and non-academic track schools at the age of 10. On average, children are more likely to attend an academic track school if their parents attended one. Estimating marginal treatment effect curves, we find that there is no effect for disadvantaged individuals, suggesting that educational policies attempting to improve the educational prospect of disadvantaged individuals may fail to reduce inequalities in the long run. Low labor market returns despite better education is the main explanation for the null effect for these individuals.

Work in Progress

Improving Child Well-Being through Parental Engagement: A Randomized Control Trial in Japan (with Hideo Akabayashi, Kenju Kamei, and Mirka Zvedelikova)

STEM-Education and Early Labor Market Outcomes (with Thomas Cornelissen, Aderonke Osikominu, and Gregor Pfeifer)

Infrastructure and Business Taxes

Characterizing Returns to STEM: Evidence on Marginal and Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects (with Aderonke Osikominu and Gregor Pfeifer)

Fiscal Stimulus and Consumption Spending: Evidence from a €5 Billion Experiment (with Gregor Pfeifer, Davud Rostam-Afschar, and Lukas Treber)