RESEARCH INTERESTS
Applied macroeconometrics and macroeconomics, particularly of small-open economies.
My current research focuses on: (i) macroprudential policy, (ii) issues in using structural models for policy analysis, and (iii) the Australian economy.
GRANTS
Australian Research Council Discovery Grant – “Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy”, Lead investigator, with Yong Song, Luke Hartigan, David Stephan, Kalvinder Shields, Kevin Lee, Khanh Hoang and Zhuo Li. DP230100959. 2023-2025. $407,107.
ARC Discovery Grant “Macroeconomic Consequences of Macroprudential Policy”, Lead investigator, with Adrian Pagan, Guay Lim and Efrem Castelnuovo, 2016-2018, $265,000.
Faculty of Business and Economics Internal Grant Scheme, University of Melbourne (2014) “Collateral Constraints and the Business Cycle”, $19,496.
Travel funding from the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University.
PUBLICATIONS
V. H. Nguyen, T. Robinson, S. Tsiaplias (2024) “The Australian Economy in 2023-24: Navigating a Narrow Path”, Australian Economic Review, forthcoming.
Lim, G., V. H. Nguyen, T. Robinson & S. Tsiaplias (2022) “Rising Cost of Living: Interest Rate Hikes and Financial Vulnerability”, Melbourne Institute Compendium 2022, P. Dawkins and A. A. Payne (eds.), Chpt 2.
Pagan, A. R. and T. Robinson (2022) “Excess Shocks Can Limit the Economic Interpretation”, European Economic Review, 145, 2, June, 104120.
V. H. Nguyen, T. Robinson, S. Tsiaplias, “The Australian Economy in 2021-22: The Virus Strikes Back”, Australian Economic Review, 55, 1, March, p. 5-24.
Gillitzer, C., Prasad N. and T. Robinson (2021) “Political Attitudes and Inflation Expectations: Evidence and Implications”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 53, 4, pp. 605-634. Link.
Lim, G., V. Nguyen, T. Robinson, S. Tsiaplias and J. Wang (2021) "The Australian Economy in 2020-21: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Prospects for Economic Recovery", Australian Economic Review, 54, 1, 5-18.
Liu, X., A. R. Pagan & T. Robinson (2018) "Critically Assessing Estimated DSGE Models: A Case Study of a Multi-Sector Model", Economic Record, 94, 307, pp. 349-371. Link to working paper version.
Chua, C. & T. Robinson (2018) “Why Has Australian Wage Growth Been So Low? A Phillips Curves Perspective”, Economic Record, 94, S1, 11-32.
Robinson T. & J. Wang (2018) "The Australian Economy in 2017-18: The Importance of Stronger Non-Mining Business Investment Growth", Australian Economic Review, 51, 5-20.
Langcake S. & T. Robinson (2018) “Forecasting the Australian Economy with DSGE and BVAR Models”, Applied Economics, 50, 3, 251 - 267. On-line appendix.
Kulish M., J. Morley & T. Robinson (2017) “Estimating DSGE Models with Zero Interest Rate Policy”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 88, 35-49.
Robinson T., V. H. Nguyen & J. Wang (2017) “The Australian Economy in 2016-17: Looking Beyond the Apartment Construction Boom”, Australian Economic Review, 50, 1, 5-20.
Robinson T., Atkin T., Caputo M., & H. Wang (2017) “Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present”, Australian Economic History Review, 57, 3, 291-315.
E. Castelnuovo, G. Lim & T. Robinson (2016) “Introduction to the Policy Forum: Macroeconomic Consequences of Macroprudential Policies”, Australian Economic Review, 49, 1, 5-19.
T. Robinson, S. Tsiaplias & V. H. Nguyen (2016) “The Australian Economy in 2015–16: Uncertainties and Challenges”, Australian Economic Review, 49, 1, 77-82.
T. Robinson, S. Tsiaplias & V. H. Nguyen (2015) “The Australian Economy in 2014–15: An Economy in Transition”, Australian Economic Review, 48, 1, 1-14.
Pagan A & T. Robinson (2014) "Methods for Assessing the Impact of Financial Effects Upon the Business Cycle in Macroeconometric Models", Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 94-106.
Atkin T. ,Caputo M., Robinson T. & H. Wang (2014) “Australia After the Terms of Trade Boom”, Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, March, p. 55-62.
Caputo M., Robinson T. & H. Wang (2013) “The Relationship Between Chinese Steel and Bulk Commodity Prices”, Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, September, p. 13-18.
Robinson T. & H. Wang (2013) “Changes to the RBA Index of Commodity Prices: 2013”, Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, March, p. 23-28.
Cagliarini A., Robinson T. & A. Tran (2011) “Reconciling Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Estimates of Price Stickiness”, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol.33, No. 1, pp. 102-120. Journal version, working paper version.
Kuttner K. & T. Robinson (2010) “Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 110-125. Journal version, working paper version.
Robinson T. & A. Stone (2006) “Monetary Policy, Asset-price Bubbles and the Zero Lower Bound”, in Rose. A & Ito, T. "Monetary Policy Under Very Low Inflation Rates", 15th East Asian Seminar on Economics, NBER Conference Volume. Chapter, NBER working paper version, RBA working paper version.
Gruen D., Robinson, T. & Stone, A. (2005) “Real-time Output Gaps – How Reliable Are They?”, The Economic Record, March, pp. 6-18. Journal version, Working paper version.
Richards A. & Robinson, T. (2003), “Asset Prices and Monetary Policy”, Reserve Bank of Australia Conference Volume. Conference volume.
Tisato P. & Robinson, T. (1999) “Cost-Benefit Analysis of Travel Blending in Adelaide”, Proceedings of the 23rd Australian Transport Research Forum, Perth Australia, p.687-702. Conference paper.
CURRENT WORK
Macroprudential Policy
Robinson T. & J. Wang “Welfare Implications of Macroprudential and Monetary Policies in Small-open Economies”.
Elias S. & T. Robinson “Evaluating Macroprudential Policy Instruments in Small-Open Economies Where Banks Create Credit ”. Draft. Appendix. Submitted
Other
J. Fitzgerald Sice, F. Lattimore, T. Robinson and A. Zhu (2023) "Practical Insights Into Applying Double LASSO", SSRN.
D. Buncic, A. R. Pagan and T. Robinson (2023) "Recovering Stars in Macroeconomics", CAMA Working Paper, 43/2023, ANU. Updated version.
WORKING PAPERS
Papers published elsewhere not listed below.
Pagan A. & T. Robinson “Implications of Partial Information for Applied Macroeconomic Modelling”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper 2019-12. Link.
Chigavazira A., Fisher H., Robinson T. & A. Zhu “The Consequences of Extending Equitable Property Division Laws to Cohabitants ”, Life Course Center Working Paper 2019-03. Link.
Robinson T. (2013) “Estimating and Identifying Empirical BVAR-DSGE Models for Small-Open Economies”, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper 2013-06. Link.
Hodge A, Robinson T. & R. Stuart (2008) “A Small BVAR-DSGE Model for Forecasting the Australian Economy, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper 2008-04. Link.
Legg A., Prasad N. & Robinson T. (2007) "Global Imbalances and the Global Savings Glut: A Panel Data Assessment", Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper 2007-11. Link.
Robinson T., Stone, A. & Van Zyl, M. (2003) “The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves”, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper 2003-12. Link.
PhD SUPERVISION
2016 – 2020 Stephen Elias (main supervisor with B. Preston) – Macroprudential policy. First placement: Australian Treasury.
2016 – 2020 Xianglong Liu (main supervisor with G. Lim) – Macroprudential policy. First placement: Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University.
2016 – 2020 Randong Yuan (minor supervisor with C. Wong) – Chinese pension system. First placement: City University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen.
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2016 – Modelling the Australian Macroeconomy. Postgraduate level applied macroeconomics and macroeconometrics course. I have taught all components; DSGE theory, estimation, SVAR and SVECMs. Course co-ordinator from 2021, and teach 2/3.
2020 – 2021 Economics Thesis Workshop I and II – Provide feedback to students on presentations of the confirmation paper. (Assist main instructor, K. Shields).
2020 Macroeconomics 2. Introductory macroeconomics course for the Masters of Management. I taught half.
2019 Financial Econometrics. Honours/Postgraduate level course. I teach the first third: time series modelling, event studies, forecasting and non-linear models.
2018 Macroeconometrics. Postgraduate level course. I taught a third on state-space modelling and applications (e.g. unobserved components models).