Real Effects of Centralized Markets: Evidence from Steel Futures, 

Review of Financial Studies, 2025, 38 (7), 2140–2181

[published version] [working paper]

Selected Presentations: 2019 AFA, 2022 EFA

I study the real effects of centralized derivative markets using the staggered introduction of futures contracts for different steel products in the U.S. Employing a difference-in-differences strategy, I find that the arrival of centralized futures markets improves price transparency and risk management in the underlying product market: price dispersion decreases and steel producers increase their hedging activity. Moreover, market share is reallocated toward low-cost producers, while product prices, producers' profits, and valuations decrease. Overall, the results indicate that centralized futures markets foster competition in the product market.

The Labor Market Effects of Loan Guarantee Programs, with Jean-Noël Barrot, Julien Sauvagnat and Boris Vallée, 

Review of Financial Studies, 2024, 37 (8), 2315–2354, Lead Article & Editor's Choice

[published version] [working paper]

Selected Presentations: 2019 NBER Corporate Finance, 2021 SFS Cavalcade North America, 2021 WFA, 2021 EFA, 2022 FIRS

We investigate the labor market effects of a loan guarantee program targeting French SMEs during the financial crisis. Exploiting differences in regional treatment intensity in a border discontinuity design, we uncover a central trade-off for such interventions. While the program has a positive impact on workers’ employment and earnings trajectories that translates into positive aggregate employment effects, it dampens the worker reallocation toward more productive firms that happens following recessions, and particularly so for high-skill workers. This labor allocation effect is economically significant and translates into a reduction in aggregate productivity.

The Downstream Impact of Upstream Tariffs: Evidence from Investment Decisions in Supply Chains, with Clemens Otto

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2024, 59 (6), 2695–2732

[published version] [working paper]

Best Paper Award 15th Paris December Finance Meeting 2017

Selected Presentations: 2018 WFA, 2020 SFS Cavalcade North America

We study how US manufacturing firms' investment responds to tariff reductions in supplier industries. Our estimates, based on tariff reductions following multinational trade agreements, suggest that a hypothetical 10% reduction of all upstream tariffs would increase downstream investment by 4% to 6%. This estimate is not explained by decreasing uncertainty and stems from tariff reductions for homogeneous and low-R&D inputs, consistent with the investment response resulting from cost reductions rather than superior foreign technology embodied in imported inputs. Evidence from an instrumental variable estimation using the sudden increase in Chinese import penetration suggests that import competition also increases downstream investment. 

The Environmental Bias of Corporate Income Taxation, with Luigi Iovino and Julien Sauvagnat

conditionally accepted American Economic Review

[working paper]

Selected Presentations: 2025 Adam Smith, 2023 EFA, 2022 SFS Cavalcade North America, 2022 AERE

We study the relationship between corporate income taxation and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the U.S. We show that CO2-intensive firms benefit more from the tax advantage of debt, and pay lower income taxes on their capital income. Building on these new facts, we provide evidence that a cut in the corporate income tax rate leads to a larger expansion of clean firms. We develop a multi-sector general equilibrium model that accounts for our evidence and quantify the impact of corporate tax reforms on aggregate emissions. A policy that eliminates the tax advantage of debt could reduce aggregate emissions without affecting GDP.

Fiscal Constraints and Corporate Discount Rates, with Nicola Maria Fiore and  Florian Nagler

[working paper]

Selected Presentations: 2024 FIRS

We study how government fiscal constraints relate to corporate discount rates and investment in a global sample of firms. We show that firms with higher sales exposure to countries facing tighter fiscal constraints set higher discount rates and invest less. Examining the mechanism, we find evidence consistent with fiscal constraints amplifying firms’ exposure to aggregate downside risk. Motivated by these findings, we show that the adoption of fiscal rules lowers discount rates and spurs investment, consistent with these rules mitigating fiscal constraints. Taken together, our findings indicate that fiscal constraints depress investment via a risk-based discount-rate channel.