TNL Season 10 Postseason Preview

After 35 rounds, just 12 teams remain. Here's a look at how they match up in the postseason.

S10 REGULAR SEASON

1) London Glory (28-7, W3, 2633 points)

2) Portland Riptide (27-8, W4, 2603 points)
3) Sacramento Shadows (26-9, L1, 2826 points)
4) Houston Ignition (26-9, W1, 2654 points)
5) Oakland Invaders (25-10, L1, 2827 points)
6) Miami Blaze (25-10, W3, 2727 points)
7) Pittsburgh Iron (25-10, W6, 2726 points)
8) Austin Strike (24-11, W2, 2756 points)
9) Tampa Bay Thunder (24-11, L2, 2511 points)
10) Denver Dynamite (23-12, W5, 2596 points)
11) Toronto Titans (22-13, W2, 2698 points)
12) Tokyo Kaiju (22-13, W7, 2192 points)

Missed Postseason:
13) Boston Hustle (21-14, L3, 2419 points)
14) Alaska Aces (20-15, W1, 2273 points)
15) Detroit Chargers (20-15, W1, 2196 points)
16) Dallas Wranglers (18-17, L2, 2212 points)
17) Charlotte Sting (17-18, L2, 2462 points)
18) San Francisco Sentinels (17-18, W1, 2219 points)
19) Oklahoma City Lightning (17-18, W1, 2196 points)
20) Baltimore Bandits (16-19, W1, 2214 points)
21) Milwaukee Reapers (15-20, L3, 2219 points)

22) Cleveland Crowns (15-20, L2, 2159 points)
23) New Jersey Generals (15-20, W4, 2124 points)
24) Brooklyn Blitz (14-21, L1, 2224 points)
25) DC Defenders (14-21, W3, 2215 points)
26) Las Vegas Jackpot (14-21, L1, 2161 points)
27) Atlanta Falconhawks (14-21, L4, 1928 points)
28) Indianapolis Horsepower (13-22, L1, 1935 points)
29) Seattle Surge (13-22, L3, 1933 points)
30) Los Angeles Eclipse (12-23, L5, 2051 points)
31) Philadelphia Freedom (10-25, L1, 1863 points)
32) Minnesota Blizzard (9-26, W3, 1993 points)
33) New York Nightmares (9-26, L1, 1687 points)
34) San Antonio Shurikens (7-28, L2, 2001 points)
35) Phoenix Inferno (7-28, W1, 1611 points)
36) Chicago Cyclones (6-29, W1, 1766 points)

I'll delve more into the 24 eliminated teams in my "End of Season" review coming out later this month; for now, we'll take a look at the matchups awaiting the remaining 12 teams.

WILDCARD CLASH ROUND 1: (11) TORONTO VS. (12) TOKYO

After nine prior seasons of frustration, Tokyo finally made the cut for the postseason. They'll now draw Toronto, which is about as imposing as you can get for a first-round Wildcard Clash matchup. The Titans are drastically underseeded, boasting the No. 5 total score on the "Advanced Statistics", with their three stages ranking No. 11, No. 5 and No. 4, respectively.

On the other end, the Kaiju have been drastically overseeded. That's no knock to them, but their 23rd-ranked Stage Three will have a hard time going up against the two-headed Hydra of Geoff Britten and Asa Reynolds. I'm picking the Titans here, but it'll be in three games due to the magic that Tokyo's been prone to pull off this season. The winner will move on to play the loser of our next matchup, which brings us to...

WILDCARD CLASH ROUND 2: (9) TAMPA BAY VS. (10) DENVER

These two teams are relatively even. While Denver sports a total cumulative rank of 30 across its three stages, Tampa Bay sits at No. 45, but with a stronger Stage Three. The Dynamite average two more points a game, but in the playoffs, that difference is negligible. Round 1 is held on WNL2024, which is a course that's historically tended to lean towards Stage Two performance. Since Denver's Stage Two ranks at No. 12 to the Thunder's No. 21, I'm taking the Dynamite in a two-game sweep. Tampa Bay would then hypothetically fall to play Toronto for the last spot in Part 2 of the Wildcard Clash (9/10/11/12 play for the final two spots in Part 1, which is 7/8/(the two that make it out of Wildcard Clash, Part 1). I'd take the Titans there, as well, and pick them alongside Denver to make it into Part 2.

WILDCARD CLASH ROUND 3: (7) PITTSBURGH VS. (8) AUSTIN

These two teams, like Toronto, are drastically underseeded, ranking third and fourth on Advanced Statistics. Both boast clear No. 1 pieces in Kaden Lebsack and Gavin Obey, while also maintaining aconsistent No. 2 options in Nacssa Garemore and Max Feinberg. The diffence? The Iron a marginally better Stage 3; Feinberg ranked 15th in the regular season and made the cut for the All-TNL Third Team. SHIRO 46 is the course for the bout between Pittsburgh and Austin, and that's a course that tends to lean towards Pittsburgh, who won the TNL Finals in Season 8 on that very course.

Pittsburgh in three. That hypothetical means that the Iron would play against the Riptide, a matchup of close friends in Pittsburgh captain b1azepowder and Portland captain yas123451.

QUARTERFINALS: (1) LONDON VS. (8) WINNER OF WILDCARD CLASH R4

London draws the winner of the game between the loser of the Pittsburgh/Austin game and whoever is the last team standing from Part 1. In my opinion, that'll either be Toronto or Austin, which isn't a favorable matchup for the Glory. I think that this series is the most likely to see a lower seed win, because both the Strike and the Titans are relatively even, if not better, at the majority of the stats than London. Ultimately, London finds itself near the top largely because it won the majority of close games and made the most of its opportunities. Still, it’s hard to argue that London is a particularly strong team; its position owes more to other team's losses, especially Oakland and Sacramento, who ruled the roost for the majority of this campaign.

I'll take the lower seed in seven. This is one series I could easily be wrong on, but I could be wrong in general for the majority of this bracket. There's a lot of moving pieces and parts that will be revealed as time goes on.

QUARTERFINALS: (4) HOUSTON VS. (5) OAKLAND

On paper, Oakland has put together the stronger season overall, but Houston has been the steadier, more dependable team down the stretch. Oakland burst out of the gate with a blistering 15-1 start through its first 16 games, only to cool off with a 10-9 record over the final 19. Meanwhile, the Ignition rolled to a 19-5 mark, highlighted by a 12-game winning streak, and closed out with a solid 7-4 finish in their last 11 games.

Houston hasn’t been flawless — no team is — but the Ignition have avoided the sharp dips that tripped up Oakland, maintaining a level of consistency that makes them look like the stronger side heading into the playoffs. I’ll take Houston in six, though it’s hard to dismiss what Oakland accomplished early on. If the Invaders can rediscover that dominant form, they’re more than capable of flipping this series on its head.

QUARTERFINALS: (2) PORTLAND VS. (7) WINNER OF PITTSBURGH-AUSTIN

Portland faces off against either Pittsburgh or Austin here, and this matchup has all the makings of another grueling seven-game series. The Riptide boast the best Stage 1 rating in the field, but that early advantage is counterbalanced by Pittsburgh and Austin ranking 10 and 9 spots higher, respectively, in Stage 3 — the stage that ultimately carries the most weight when it comes to closing out games.

Given that, I’m leaning toward another upset. Portland’s consistency up front is impressive, but the back half of their metrics suggests they could struggle to finish against teams that peak late. If it’s Pittsburgh that advances, I think the Iron will simply have too much depth and composure for the Riptide to handle over a full series. Their ability to adapt and tighten the screws in the later stages should prove decisive.

I’ll take Pittsburgh in seven, but even if Austin ends up being the opponent, the same vulnerabilities could haunt Portland. Either way, it feels like Portland is walking a tightrope here — one slip, and their promising season could come to a sudden end.

QUARTERFINALS: (3) SACRAMENTO VS. (6) MIAMI

At first glance, Sacramento’s balance across all three stages stands out, while Miami shows a sharp spike in Stage 2 but lags behind when it comes to closing out in Stage 3. That 11th-place Stage 3 ranking might look substandard against the defending champions, but it’s also worth noting that Miami’s numbers are slightly deceptive after acquiring Jay Lewis in a midseason blockbuster trade from Alaska. Since his arrival, the Blaze have looked far more composed, especially in crunch-time situations.

Still, it’s hard to look past Sacramento’s pedigree. The Shadows not only have the battle-tested experience from last year’s title run, but they also feature Noah Meunier, who sports the best overall individual metrics in Ninja Machine. That’s the kind of difference-maker who can tilt a series, especially when things inevitably tighten up in Games 6 and 7.

I’ll lean Sacramento in seven — their consistency across the board and championship mettle should give them the edge. But with Miami’s midseason upgrades and how well they perform in the middle stages, this is exactly the type of series that could flip on a hot streak or a single clutch performance. Either way, expect it to go the distance.

CHAMPIONSHIP PICK!

That leaves us with four semifinalists in this hypothetical bracket: Austin, Houston, Pittsburgh, and Sacramento. Three of them have championship banners already — Houston claimed the Season 5 title, Pittsburgh lifted the trophy in Season 8 and Sacramento enters as the reigning champions.

In this setup, I’d back Austin to edge past Houston in seven, thanks largely to the Strike’s superior Stage 3 metrics (ranking No. 3 versus Houston’s No. 9), giving them the late-game edge needed to close out a tight series. On the other side, I’ll predict that Pittsburgh pulls off a dramatic upset over Sacramento in yet another seven-game slugfest, with Max Feinberg delivering the clutch moments that tip the balance.

That sets up a compelling final: the seventh-seeded Pittsburgh Iron facing off against the eighth-seeded Austin Strike — a rematch of their Wildcard Clash Part II duel. And just like last time, I’m riding with Pittsburgh. I think the Iron will navigate one last nail-biter to capture the Season X crown. Let the games begin.

The Wildcard Clash kicks off on July 6, with the following four courses: WNL 2024, ANW 11, SHIRO 46 and SASUKE 36.