Thomas Hughes
December 2024
NOTE: TNL (The Ninja League) is a fantasy Ninja Warrior league hosted on the simulator "Ninja Machine", which is made by Alex Cunningham.
Here's a look at how each team has fared so far roughly midway through TNL's seventh season.
Orlando finds themselves once again in the league's cellar. The Waves have done worse than its prior two seasons (26th and 29th) and looks set for another weak season. With their highest player (Tyler Kurtzhals — P78) averaging under nine points a game, it's not pretty at all. Orlando's only shining light comes from their female production – Olivia Lopez currently sits third in the female MVP ranking with 5.4 points per game, behind only Minnesota's Allyssa Beird (5.44) and Atlanta's Jordan Carr (5.83).
This team relocated from its previous location (Chicago, which then returned to the league following the exit of the Baltimore Brigade) and the change hasn't seen much benefit. Though London looked solid at points last season, it stumbled en route to 23rd in the final standings. That slump has stayed into this season, where London went on a ten-game losing streak, only breaking it with a win over No. 30 Toronto (5–13). London and Orlando are the only teams to not win consecutive games so far this season.
Toronto seems consigned to perpetual mediocrity. Despite an active bidding period that saw them land German star Max Sprenger, nothing has gone right for the team this season. Toronto hasn't finished above 24th since the league expanded to 32 teams back in Season 5 — and that streak looks set to continue.
An 0–4 start that stretched into 2–10 ended the team's playoff hopes before it even began. Toronto has started to settle into things, winning three out of their last six games, but the path to playoff contention is almost certainly closed.
Sacramento is stuck in "what could've been" territory. A squad that went 12–1 to end last season — and returned all its key pieces — just hasn't been on it this season. Naoki Iketani '02, who averaged 10.54 points per game last season, has fallen down to 6.5, with James McGrath '13 now being the team's highest scorer (9.78). With numbers like this, it's easy to see Sacramento's slump in a season where they're in the middle of points scored (17th), they just haven't escaped out of those games with wins.
Philadelphia is the definition of the "bare minimum". Despite easily having the lowest points scored in the league — just 627, with Orlando having the next closest at 681 — Philadelphia has scored seven wins this season. Only two of them were to top 15 teams, No. 14 DC and No. 10 Detroit, and Philadelphia hasn't defeated a top-nine team all season. Wins like that will need to come for a team to have any playoff hopes. Philadelphia just isn't there yet.
In one shining, shimmering season, Charlotte finally took the leap in Season Five and made the post-season, lasting for five games before taking the plunge to No. 1 DC. It's been all misery from there, as the Sting have lost six out of their last seven. Their best player — No. 28 Tyler Smith — has been boom-or-bust, clearing twice in the past eight rounds, but failing to score above nine in five of his last eight. That perfectly represents the Sting, who just haven't had enough talent to win consistently.
Tokyo took advantage of a Portland captain swap, dealing Brazil's Felipe Camargo and ANW champion Isaac Caldiero to land Alexander Wurm and Charlie Robbins. Those two players were instrumental in Portland's championship run, and could prove crucial to a Tokyo team looking to take the next step. With this team, it's hard to offer much concrete thoughts since they just overhauled their team. This could either go great or go badly — and for a Tokyo team that hasn't gotten over the hump since it relocated from Phoenix, it's worth the risk.
Like Charlotte, Vegas peaked in Season Five. However, its Season Six hopes took a nosedive almost immediately as the team went from to 19–12 in Season Five to a paltry 10–21 in Season Six — third-worst in the league. Though the Jackpot have been better this season, it's not by much. Aside from star Yogev Malka, there's not a lot to this team.
Miami looked dead in the water in the offseason; they lost Joe Moravsky and dealt Ashlin Herbert in the middle of the season. Though they looked to have a decent season going, starting off 3–2, the Blaze lost eight of their next ten. As a whole, Miami has just been outmatched on points scored, ranking 26th out of the 32 teams in the league. Though Miami has won a good amount of games, this is mostly down to other teams underperforming and not down to Miami's strengths, as the team has only scored higher than 50 on three occasions.
OKC's best player is 87th in individual scoring. That should explain almost entirely why they're here. The team started OK, opening to a 6–7 start, but has only won one of their last five. True Becker has been sorely missed by this team, as his 10 points a game has now helped San Antonio (though not to a much better standing). Their late slump has been concerning, hitting over 40 only once in the past five rounds, and hitting below 30 in each of their past three.
For a team that went 17–14 last season, this season has been a disappointment. Much of that can be attributed to Nathanael Honvou. Last season, Honvou — a rookie — came just nine total points short of an All-TNL nomination, scoring 11.71 points per game en route to 19th in overall individual points. This season, he's 66th with 9 points per game. The Nightmares (7–11) have had increased production from Geoff Britten (12 points per game and 15th in Season 6 to 16 points per game and 10th in Season 7), but that hasn't resulted in more wins. With high scoring this season, New York hasn't taken advantage, and as such they're on the outside looking in.
San Antonio began the season rough at 1–5, but has worked their way back into post-season contention, going 7–5 since. Though it may not be enough, the team has showcased a decent amount of firepower. Lukas Homann and Will Schlageter have each contributed more than nine points a game and True Becker has led this three-headed attack to a decent standing on the year. While the Shurikens may not reach the postseason, they do have enough key pieces to possibly trade them to land a big name, such as Houston's Joseph Meissner or Las Vegas' Yogev Malka.
Chicago has gone rather under the radar. This team still has a chance to make the playoffs — if the team wants to make it to the postseason, going all out to nab a contender may be the move. This team has decent depth we haven't seen — Lee En Chih and Asa Reynolds haven't suited up for the Cyclones, yet. If this team packages to trade for a contender, we could see a Cyclones unit genuinely capable of making it to the playoffs.
Cleveland has settled into an all-or-nothing mentality; the team traded three players to go all-in on Portland's Yusuke Morimoto. Though Yusuke can single-handedly will this team to wins, it means that Cleveland is in a Yusuke-or-bust scenario. If Yusuke plays like his best every week, Cleveland can win; if not, they're doomed. Expect this team to go around 16–15 and be right on the playoff cutline.
Indianapolis has been an interesting team. The team went on a four-game losing streak, then later went on a six-game winning streak. This team also has hit above 50 points on just six occasions, but mustered up a 95-point bomb in Week Eight, where they won the Gauntlet.
This team is a true mystery box. Koji Hashimoto '10, the Horsepower's ace at Stage Three, has been boom-or-bust — and more often, he's been a bust, as none of his past four rounds have seen him clear the third obstacle. Somehow, Indianapolis has escaped that stretch at 2–2. Expect this team to be a sleeper and one that can still be in contention come the waning weeks of the regular season.
In Season One, this team was a true contender. The fall of Seattle since has been concerning. The team initially seemed to be back to championship form, starting 5–1, but the team has been putrid as of late, going 1–6 in their last seven with a 100-point bomb being their only saving from a seven-game losing streak. This team is not even close to a championship contender — failing to hit 50 points save that triple-digit miracle in the past seven rounds is extremely concerning.
The Aces (9–9) have started to settle in. Though the team endured a rough five-game losing streak, Alaska has won six of their last eight and looks in position to start mounting a championship challenge. Mickael Mawem has been the catalyst and though he's cooled off from a stretch that saw him rise as high as No. 2 in scoring, he still ranks No. 11. Joe Moravsky, Adam Ondra and Brooks Beber have helped anchor a team that could taste postseason play for the first time in franchise history.
With every game, Pittsburgh looks to be more of a "what could've been" story. The team blew up early, trading Joseph Meissner to Houston to get Kaden Lebsack — then packaged him in a trade for four players. The team was in a position where it honestly could've gone 0–6 if not for their "Safety Pass" being burned early in the season. Though they're on a three-game winning streak, it directly followed a three-game losing one. Expect this team to fluctuate for the rest of the season.
This team is undervalued — entirely because of penalties. Multiple Code of Conduct violations hurt a team that could've been 12–6 or 13–5 and stopped a regular season championship hunt for DC before it ever really began. Led by Season 3 M.V.P. Yuji Urushihara '10, this team looks set for a deep postseason run – if they can stop getting penalized.
Dallas' turnaround from last season is a welcoming sight to see. 7–24 a season ago has turned into a 10–8 season that could be even better had the Wranglers not dropped five of their last seven. If the team can correct that slide, they should be in a decent position to be in postseason play, but even if they're not, they're far beyond last season — a much-needed win for this Wranglers unit.
The Generals (10–8) have had a solid season — they've ranked tenth in total points with 974 — but they just haven't won as many games as last season. The Generals ranked 11th in total points last season, but went 22-9 but their opponents scored the lowest on them (1231). This season, the Generals' opponents have scored the tenth most points. As such, the Generals are at roughly a 50/50 clip as opposed to last season, and are in the standings as such. Though this team recently made a blockbuster trade to acquire both Kaden Lebsack and Yamamoto Yoshiyuki from Pittsburgh, the outcome of that trade is yet to be determined. Keep an eye on this New Jersey team for now — they could go either way.
While LA has also gotten penalized on multiple occasions, it hasn't been as bad for a unit that just hasn't gelled as many would've hoped. Though Jay Lewis has once again been a top-five player, the player he was traded for — Denver's Matt Bradley — currently sits second, while Sato Jun has been a great contributor to DC's Stage Two, at 10.56 points per game. While LA lost that trade, they still have a chance to make do with the roster they have and make their sixth postseason in seven tries. The fact that they're not locked in yet this season — as opposed to seasons past — is concerning, however.
This season feels like wash, rinse, and repeat for the Detroit Chargers. However, the cast of this ensemble is radically different. Detroit made possibly the move of the century, packaging away Yamamoto Yoshiyuki — the reigning MVP — to get Vance Walker, who was then packaged for Caleb Bergstrom. Though Bergstrom hasn't been otherworldly, with just five out of 19 games going over 25 points, he's done enough to sit 16th in the individual point standings. Brian Arnold has been the bigger story, however. Acquired from No. 9 Denver, Arnold has been a revelation, climbing up to No. 31 in individual standings at an impressive 11.21 points per game. Detroit seems to be hitting the same notes as last season — but a different conclusion than last season's Play-In exit would be welcome news for this Chargers squad.
It's long been a running joke for Denver. In every season, they've finished with a winning record, yet in only one season (Season Five) did they finish in the top 10 in standings. This season looks to be much like that old Season Five, though. Despite the Dynamite sitting at 11–7, they've got the highest points in the league, sitting at an uber-efficient 61.9 points per game. This is anchored primarily by Denver's scary duo: No. 2 Matt Bradley (20.44 points per game) and No. 3 Phil Folsom (18.28). If those two can produce at roughly the same clip, Denver should be poised to make a deep playoff run and potentially be the one hoisting the TNL championship at season's end.
Coming off a miracle season where the Strike went 19–12 despite being outscored by their opponents by 72 points, it's been a great season for Austin. The Strike currently sit one game outside the lead, and France's Bassa Mawem has anchored Austin's charge this year en route to 12.8 points per game. Though he hasn't been quite as good as he was for Minnesota last season, Austin should be in a decent position for a second straight bid to the postseason if he can continue this production.
For the first time since joining the league, Oakland feels more like an also-ran than a championship contender. Though the Invaders sit 12–6, the team also sits 12th in points scored behind teams such as Los Angeles, New Jersey and a penalty-laden D.C. This doesn't exactly build confidence, as Jackson Erdos has hit a noticeable regression, only averaging 11.88 points per game to his 14.58 last season. This is even worse when you account for the increased scoring this season, something Oakland has actually gotten worse in, averaging 53.3 points this season to last season's 56.1. Though this isn't a huge issue right now, it could rear its ugly head as we get towards the postseason as Oakland finds themselves with the first Play-In slot.
The sixth slot is currently slated to Houston, who would've been the No. 3 seed had they not been trampled by Pittsburgh, 44–26, in Round 18. After moving on from Kaden Lebsack midway through the season, Houston has hit their stride, winning nine out of their last 11. Slowly but surely, they've inched their way up into regular season championship contention. But it's fair to ask: without Lebsack, who will be the difference maker for the Ignition in the playoffs?
Atlanta came out of the gates hot, going 6–1 to open the season. While they've cooled off since then, going 6–5, this is still a dangerous team that's averaged 60.1 points over the past eight rounds of competition. Expect this team, led by Zak Stolz (15.39 points per game; 12th) and Kane Kosugi '01 (13.89, 13th), to shine in the remaining 13 games. Ethan Gardulski — sitting 30th in the points at 11.22 points per game — has also been one to watch as he's been one of the highest-scoring players on Stage Two all season long.
Minnesota has been on a red-hot tear, winning seven straight and eight of their last nine. Five times out of the last eight games, they've hit above fifty points. Minnesota is also the only team this season to record two triple-digit games (105 in Round 1, 100 in Round 12). Clement Gravier has anchored the charge with 16.3 a game, but Yamamoto Keitaro's 12 has also been key to a Blizzard unit poised to make a deep run for the first time.
Once again, Boston finds themselves near the top. Tada Tatsuya once again will be on an All-TNL team come the end of the season, scoring almost 300 points after 18 rounds. But besides Tada, who do they really have? It's been shown before that Boston can't get it quite over the line — every season so far has ended in disappointment. And in five of their last six seasons, they've fallen in a seven-game slugfest. Will this be the season the Hustle's luck finally pays off? Only time will tell if this book has a different ending.
Though Tampa Bay barely changed their team, they've looked light-years better. At this point last season, the Thunder were 9–9 and ended up on the outside due to a lower point differential (had it been by points scored — which it is for Season Seven — the Thunder would've qualified as the 10th team). Two players in the top 25 (No. 8 Mat Redho and No. 17 Makoto Nagano '06) doesn't hurt, but to claim that top spot, Tampa Bay will need more help out of its secondary scorers — the highest of which is currently Yoshiyuki Okuyama at 63rd.
For a team at No. 1, you wouldn't expect much fluctuation. So far, Portland hasn't fluctuated much. Though they might not be as skilled as their prime in Season 6, they do seem on target to contend for a championship once again.
The next round will take place on Dec. 10 on SHIRO 22.