System dynamics models are developed to simulate the dynamic behaviour of complex systems. Though the relationships between sub-sets of variables in a system may be simple, the model however becomes complex if there are many variables and some relationships looping back in feedback. Some variables are data constants, decision values and simple variables, as one would find in most spreadsheet models, but more importantly in system dynamics models, a few at least are stocks and flows. These variables' values accumulate over time, with inflows and outflows that have flow rates dependent on its stock level and possibly other variables' states. Arising from having stocks and flows, there would be time delays between decisions and outcomes. The behaviour of the complex system as a result can be quite unexpected.
Unusual behaviours include exponential growth and decay, and oscillations. As an illustration, a sudden increase in the budget given to a police department would lead to an immediate rise in the number of arrests, not the intended effect of seeking to curb crime. Crime statistics would only decline over time if increased enforcement is sustained. If the initial arrest increases are taken negatively by policy makers, the needed sustained larger budget would not happened; crime statistics often continue to rise for years before turning around and start looking good.
The goal of system dynamics modeling is not so much to find the optimal values of decision variables, but to examine the time-varying behaviour of the system, determine policy responses to help avert adverse outcomes, and predict implications of system structure changes. It is the system structural changes that are pertinent. Stakeholders must be educated to wait patiently for effects of policy changes to play out. System dynamics is a valuable approach for high level issues such as corporate strategy and government policy. It has been used to study at industry structure and global issues, particularly economic development and environmental protection.
System dynamics models make good multi-player games. Playing these games let players learn about the gamed environment, and characteristics of playing roles and players. As a training tool, it permits individuals to rehearse their participation as members of a team, and each team to understand their strength relative to competing teams. For example, an interesting phenomena to study is the evolution of the music industry and the impact of digital format and social networking on its future. No single person really knows what is happening in that industry, which is evidently under tremendous pressure. As a game to be developed, players representing different stakeholders and entities can assist in building the system dynamics model and playing the associated game; working through the two steps iteratively until all players give up in despair, or more optimistically, each party understands the impact of their behaviour and actions; and learning to work together, devises new working arrangements for the good of the whole.
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Others
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SD Software
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Others
Meadows 2007. Thinking In Systems: A Primer
Warren 2008. Strategic Management Dynamics, Wiley
15.874 System Dynamics for Business Policy, MIT Sloan School of Management
15.988 System Dynamics Self Study, MIT Sloan School of Management
Others
Applications of Simulation, Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, Dartmouth College
Financial Management for Business, Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA)
OPM 591 High Performance Management Processes, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona
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Ackoff, Russell
Systems Thinking (Videos) 01 . 02 . 03
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Leong 2015
System Archetypes Unified (pdf)
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Exercise. Singapore Residential Property (pdf)
Exercise. System Archetypes – The Parable (pdf)
Exercise. Tragedy of The Commons (pdf)
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Uses of Data Modeling And Simulation to Address Health Issues
Wikipedia
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Structure
Causal-Loop Diagram . Stock-and-Flow Diagram
Positive Feedback . Negative Feedback
System Archetypes
Solution
Leverage-point Modeling . Twelve Leverage Points
Porter's Five Forces Framework . Theory of Constraints
Role-playing Games (Big Model)
Others
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Braun 2007. Dynamics Of Eroding Goals Archetype, 25th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Jul 29 to Aug 2, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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System Dynamics Resource, University of Arizona
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Applied Systems Thinking
Systems Thinking
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SystemWiki
System Thinking World
Simulation Games
Beer Game
Sterman . On the Web (MIT) . Kirkwood (ASU)
Epidemic Game
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Concerted Run on the DSB Bank [Play]
Mexican Flu [Play]
Pneumonic Plague in China [Play]
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Salt Seller Game . Solar Photovoltaic Game
Others
Caroll, Sterman & Marcus 1996. Playing the Maintenance Game: How Mental Models Drive Organizational Decisions, MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Wikipedia.
Air-defense Experiments
Business Simulation . Game
Ludic Fallacy
Gladwell 2011. Outliers: The Story of Success New
Why Do Some Succeed Where Others Fail?
Graham 2009. Four Grand Challenges of System Dynamics New
27th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 26-30 Jul, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
Insurgency, Governance and Political Stability
Acting on Global Warming
Global Financial Stability
Harmonious Chinese Growth
Initiative for System Dynamics in the Public Sector Center for Policy Research, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany.
Others
Mrotzek & Ossimitz 2008. Catastrophe Archetypes: Using System Dynamics to Build an Integrated Systemic Theory of Catastrophes, 26th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 20-24 Jul, Athens, Greece
Singapore
Housing . Liveable Cities
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Sterman 1992. System Dynamics Modeling for Project Management, MIT Sloan School of Management
Wikipedia
Collaborative Intelligence . Complex Adaptive Systems
Distributive Interactive Simulation
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment
Sense and Respond
Others
Eksin 2008. Business Dynamics of a Record Company as Influenced by Online Channels, 26th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 20-24 Jul, Athens, Greece
Industry Studies
Entertainment. Music
Info-Comm. Software and Services, eBusiness
Transportation. Shipping
Pruyt 2010. 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 25-29, Seoul, Korea
The Concerted Run on the DSB Bank: An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach
Scarcity of Minerals and Metals: A Generic Exploratory System Dynamics Model
Using Small Models for Big Issues: Exploratory System Dynamics for Insightful Crisis Management
Glass-Husain 1991. Teaching System Dynamics: Looking at Epidemics, Epidemic Game, System Dynamics in Education Project, MIT
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Others
Hammond 2009. Complex Systems Modeling for Obesity Research, Preventing Chronic Disease 6(3):1-10 New
Industry Studies
Dental . Public Health . Insights . Improvement
Pruyt & Hamarat 2010. The Influenza A(H1N1)v Pandemic: An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach, 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 25-29, Seoul, Korea
Pruyt 2009. Cholera in Zimbabwe 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 26-30, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
Dudley & Soderquist 1999. A Simple Example of How System Dynamics Modeling Can Clarify, and Improve Discussion and Modification, of Model Structure, 129th Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society, August, Charlotte, North Carolina
Jackson 2012. Economics of Climate Change, TED New
World Resources Institute
Bell Teaching Case Studies, Earth Trends Environmental Information
Wikipedia
Disaster
Others
Industry Studies
Agriculture. Coffee
Energy. Electric Power
Forestry. Paper and Pulp
Mrotzek & Ossimitz 2008. Catastrophe Archtypes - Using System Dynamics to Build an Integrated Systemic Theory of Catastrophes, 26th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 20-24, Athens, Greece
Pruyt & De Sitter 2008. Food or Energy? Is that the Question? 26th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 20-24, Athens, Greece
Duhigg 2012. The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business, Random House [YouTube]
Elliot 2012. A Class Divided, PBS: Frontline
Koirala 2011. Human Trafficking, CNN Heroes
Thaler & Sunstein 2009. Nudges. Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness