External Links:
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com.br/citations?hl=pt-BR&user=R-Pv_FgAAAAJ
Curriculum Lattes (CNPq): http://lattes.cnpq.br/3226838720009310
Interests:
Banking: credit, zombie lending (forberance, evergreening); capital requirements.
Corporate Finance: FX exposure; maturity mismatch; survivorship bias; SME.
FX and foreign reserves management.
Working Papers:
Competing for Loan Seniority: Implications and Evidence (2025). [Slides] with Arthur Taburet (Duke) and Bernardo Ricca (Insper)
Abstract: Borrowing from multiple lenders can lead to a debt dilution problem: Lenders do not internalize that issuing a new loan can affect borrowers’ ability and incentive to pay off loans provided by other lenders. Using data on the universe of retail loans in Brazil, we provide new causal estimates of the debt dilution channel. We show that, when unable to repay all their credit card debt, defaulters prioritize repaying the balance on their cards with the highest credit limit; cards originated by fintech companies, or cards from lenders that also sold them other financial products. Motivated by these facts, we develop a new structural model of lending with non-exclusive contracts in which lenders can use contract terms to gain loan seniority. We use the model to quantify the impact of debt dilution on contract terms and welfare.
Presented on: Conferência Anual Banco Central do Brasil (2025), AFA (2026).
Martins, T. C, Schiozer, R., Mourad, F. (2023) . Labor market shaping corporate finance decisions: when workers and firms borrow from the same bank.
Last version: see Chapter 3 of my PhD dissertation ( link here ) [ status: on hold ]
Abstract: Are there economies of scope when banks lend to firms and to its’ workers? Using unique administrative data on employment and lending facilities in Brazil, we show that when employees borrow from the same bank as their employer, firm loans are larger and cheaper. We also show that during the Covid-19 pandemic banks targeted subsidized government loans to the firms in which they had greater lending relationship with employees.
Peer reviewed publications:
Martins, T. C., Schiozer, R., Linardi, F. (2022). The Information Content from Lending Relationships Across the Supply Chain. Journal of Financial Intermediation (56, pp., 101057 ). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2023.101057
[ presented in Ibefa 2022; EBFin 2022; FMA 2022 (best paper award finalist) ].
Last version: see Chapter 2 of my PhD dissertation ( link here ).
Abstract: Using unique administrative data on firm-to-firm payments and bank-to-firm lending, we investigate how lending to a firm is affected by same-bank lending to the firm’s customers and suppliers. We show that bank lending increases when the same bank also lends to the firm’s customers or suppliers. Additionally, we find that the revelation of negative information about the creditworthiness of a firm’s major customer causes an increase in the cost and a reduction in the duration of the loans provided to the firm. These results suggest that lending to firms connected through the supply chain conveys valuable information to banks.
Martins, T., Novaes, W. (2012). Mandatory dividend rules: Do they make it harder for firms to invest? Journal of Corporate Finance Volume 18, Issue 4, 2012, link (published version).
Abstract: What are the costs and benefits of mandatory dividend rules? On the one hand, they make it harder for controlling shareholders to divert corporate assets. On the other hand, they reduce the internal funds available for firms to invest, possibly leading to the loss of valuable projects. To assess this trade-off, we look at investment and dividend decisions in a sample of public firms in Brazil. We show that a significant fraction of these firms use loopholes of Brazil's mandatory dividend rules to avoid paying dividends. And yet, the dividend rules are effective. They help explain why the average dividend yield in Brazil is higher than in the U.S., without making it harder for firms to invest.
Silva, M. Brito, G.A., Martins, T. (2018). Default contagion among credit modalities: Evidence from Brazilian data. Journal of Credit Risk, Volume 14, issue 3 (2018), pp. 31-48., link (published version) or link (BCB Working Paper).
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of defaulting on one personal credit modality on future default on other modalities. Using Brazilian micro data, we run a logistic regression to estimate the probability of default on a given credit modality, by including personal overdue exposure in the other credit modalities among the explanatory variables. Our results show that this effect is positive and significant, although not uniform across different modalities. Specifically, it was found that default on collateralized credit modalities (vehicle and real estate financing) impacts the future default on the other credit modalities more. Moreover, default on riskier loan categories (overdraft and non-payroll-deducted personal credit) is more impacted by defaults on other modalities. We also discuss argumentatively the rationale behind these results.
Schiozer, R. F., Mourad, F. A., Martins, T. C. (2021). A tutorial on the use of differences-in-differences in management, finance, and accounting. Revista de Administração Contemporânea (RAC) 25 (1). link (published version). Replication data (R and Stata codes)
Abstract: Natural experiments or quasi-experiments have become quite popular in management research. The differences-in-differences (DiD) estimator is possibly the workhorse of these techniques. Objetive: the goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial that serves as practical guide for researchers considering using natural experiments to make causal inferences. We discuss the DiD advantages, concerns, and testes of validity. We also provide an application of the technique, in which we discuss the effect of government guaranteess on banks' degree of risk, using the 2008 financial crisis as a natural experiment. The database used, as well as the Stata and R scripts containing the analysis are available as online appendices.
Casolaro, A. M. B., Schiozer, R. F., Martins, T. C. (2025). Does the First Loan Matter? Effects of the First Lender on Subsequent Loans for MSMEs (PT title: O Primeiro Empréstimo Importa? Efeitos do primeiro emprestador nos empréstimos subsequentes das MPMEs). Brazilian Review of Finance (Revista Brasileira de Finanças), 2025. link (published version in PT)
Abstract: This study investigates the association between the type of financial institution where a Micro, Small, or Medium Enterprise (MSME) obtains its first loan, and the conditions set for subsequent loans. We use proprietary data from the Credit Information System (SCR) of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) to compare loans granted by different types of financial intermediaries, analyzing the loan amount, interest rates, and duration for firms with no prior credit history in the Brazilian Financial System. The results show that obtaining a loan from the same type of financial institution as the first credit contract allows for higher loan amounts, lower interest rates, and longer duration. Additionally, loan conditions improve over time since the first loan, but not in a linear manner.
Policy white papers:
"Risco cruzado entre empresas e seus sócios" - link
"Financiamento de veículos e taxas de juros: algumas considerações e métodos de avaliação" - link
Notes: All published or working papers are the sole copyright of the respective publishers. The views expressed in these works are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Central Bank of Brazil.