Introduction:

With the recent events in Gaza and the Biden’s administration’s response. Muslim and Arab voters are in large numbers turning away from Biden. There are 3.5 million Muslims live in the United States as of 2017 with at least 71% of Muslim Americans are registered to vote. A poll from Emgage, a Muslim-American Civic Engagement organization, conducted a study revealing only 5% of Muslim and Arab Americans say they plan to Vote for Biden in the 2024 presidential election, which is a significant decrease from the 86% who supported him after he won the presidency in 2020. This may have set Biden up for failure in many key swing states. 

Gaza:

Israel’s disproportionate response to the atrocity committed on October 7th by the terrorist group Hamas has lead to a humanitarian catastrophe that has caused much stir within the Democratic Party. According to a study, 80% of democrats (and 60% of all voters) approve of a Ceasefire, yet the majority of Congress disagrees. As the death toll in Gaza continues to rise (over 22,835 Palestinians as of January 7th) human rights groups continue to disagree with the Biden’s administration's decision to continue backing Israel with even the United Nations passing a resolution calling for a Ceasefire. This has led Biden to lose voters of all faiths (or lack thereof).

The National Muslim Democratic Council:

The National Muslim Democratic Council (NMDC) is a political organization that aims to advocate and represent the interest of Muslim Americans within the Democratic Party. The NMDC, along with Democratic Party activists, issued an Ultimatum to the Biden Administration. They pledged to mobilize “Muslim, Arab, and allied voters” to withhold “endorsement, support, or votes” in upcoming elections from any candidate, including Biden who does not call for a ceasefire. The NMDC warned that the war is undermining efforts to bring Muslim and Arab voters into the Democratic coalition.

The Muslim Vote Historically:

Muslims have always been an underrepresented group in politics in the United States. The Democratic Party’s post-9/11 appeal to Muslim voters took off with the President Barack Obama’s victory in 2008. President Obama, the first ever African American to be president from a Muslim father, gave him a multicultural appeal. This added to his promises of a retreat from the Middle-East gave many Muslims the courage to vote for the first time.

In the 2016 and 2020 elections, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden lacked the same appeal that Former President Obama had, however President Donald Trump involuntarily served as a boogeyman pushing Muslim voters toward the Democratic Party due to his Muslim Ban. Prior to recent events, 87% of Muslims identified with the Democratic Party. Biden’s response to the developing situation in Gaza has shown that there will be no bogeymen in 2024 for Muslims, Arabs or other disaffected communities to rally against, meaning no candidate has the majority of the Muslim or Arab vote.

Muslims Feel Wronged:
Nada Al Hanooti, the Executive Director for Emgage in the State of Michigan, stated, “The truth is that we are experiencing the same Islamophobic rhetoric right now coming from the Biden Administration. Muslims don’t feel heard, and they don’t feel seen.” The White House's immediate release of the "National Strategy to Combat Islamophobia" has been condemned as a performative act of appeasement, which has been the basic and solitary demand since the beginning of this conflict. President Biden has failed to reach out to many Muslim communities.

Swing States and the Muslim Vote:

There has been a large shift in political support among Muslim voters in key swing states toward Biden. The potential loss of this crucial voting bloc, which played a pivotal role in securing Biden’s victory in the swing states, may prove to be his downfall.

To show how significant losing the Muslim vote is, here are some numbers:

• In Michigan (15 Electoral votes), Biden won by 154,000 votes, of which 206,000 of total votes were Muslim.

• In Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes), Biden won by 80,000 votes, of which 125,000 of total votes were Muslim.

• In Georgia (16 Electoral votes), Biden won by 12,000 votes, of which 61,148 of total  votes were Muslim.

• In Wisconsin (10 Electoral votes), Biden won by about 20,000 votes, of which an estimated 13,500 of the total votes were Muslim.

• In Arizona (11 Electoral votes), Biden won by approximately 10,500 votes, of which an estimated 7,000 of total votes were Muslim

• In Nevada (6 Electoral votes), Biden won by around 33,600 votes, of which an estimated 22,500 of total votes were Muslim

Non-Muslims and the Youth Vote:

While Biden is losing favor with Muslim and Arab voters because of the situation in Gaza, they are not the only ones Biden in angering with his administration's current approach to the conflict. Younger people tend to view Palestine more favorably, with 61% of people under the age of 30 viewing Palestinians more favorably. It’s important to mention western media has been becoming more unbiased in its coverage of Israel-Palestine due to the increase in youth sympathy for Palestine. This shift in perspective among the youth is noteworthy, as it suggests a broader reevaluation of the conflict beyond traditional partisan lines. 

The Collage Democrats of America have even showed support for a Ceasefire in Gaza, passing a resolution unanimously calling for one in December. This move by a prominent youth-led political organization underscores the growing demand for peace and a reexamination of U.S. foreign policy among the next generation of voters.

With a majority of the US supporting a ceasefire, this only increases dissatisfaction with Biden.

Conclusion:

Biden is moving into uncertain territory entering into the 2024 election. The loss of the Muslim voting bloc may be his downfall in the swing states. The handling of the Gaza crisis and the perceived indifference towards the humanitarian catastrophe have led to a widening gap between American Muslims and the Democratic Party. We can only wait to see how this will affect the 2024 presidential election. Many of his supporters stay hopeful, but only time can tell.