July 8, 2025
All-Star break is close which means it is time to reflect on the first 3 full months of the baseball season. I look at 3 buys, 3 sells, and 3 holds for fantasy purposes as the trade season is at its peak with the lull in games, roto standings taking shape, and head to head seasons entering their final weeks of the regular season.
Three Buys
Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson has started to come around after a slow start due to injury. If a manager in your league is looking at season long statistics and is upset that Henderson is not pacing out to his incredible 2024 season, take a chance at a discount for him and expect huge results. The hard hit percentage is still there. The xwOBA continues to rise at it sits at .370 over his last 100 plate appearances. The biggest thing for Gunnar has been his swing and miss at bad pitches. He is chasing nearly 29% of the time after only doing so 23% of the time last year. More chase, less contact, means worse numbers. But again, the season long is being dragged down by the return from injury and slow start. Bat speed, hard hit, and exit velo are all top 90 percentile in MLB. With a little more contact I would expect Gunnar to hit 15 home runs and add 10 more steals the second half of the year with a better average and OBP than he has had the first half. Act now and see if you can get his owner to bite.
Corey Seager
The window for Seager may have closed over the last 2 weeks. Hitting .293/.444/.658. He has 4 home runs (5 as he just hit another off of Kikuchi on Monday night as I write this), 11 runs, 9 RBI and a stolen base in 41 at bats. Compare this to his season line of .245/.348/.440 with 11 HR, 31 runs, 25 RBI, 1 stolen base in 216 at bats. Some quick math if Seager had his last 2 week pace over those same 216 at bats to begin the year…55 runs, 45 RBI, 5 SB, 20 home runs. In other words, Seager’s last 2 weeks and 40 ABs have doubled his production for the entire year. When healthy, this guy crushes the ball and carries the Ranger’s offense. He will not run a lot, but he can do it when he feels healthy enough to. A Seager owner has seen the last 2 weeks and is dreaming on what he could do in the second half by staying healthy. The buy low window is closed, but you may be able to pay 90 cents on the dollar due to the depressed season numbers.
Dylan Cease
Odd year Dylan Cease is here. It is uncanny (and unpredictable) how Cease struggles in odd numbered years and excels in even years. I quickly mentioned Cease as a target last week, but did not go in depth with anything, so let’s dig into him quick. The hard hit percent allowed is a career high 41.9%. Accordingly the barrel percentage is a career high 9.7%. Likewise, players are pulling the ball in the air more often against Cease than any other year in his career. All the other numbers are very much in line with Cease’s terrific 2024 when he had a 3.5 ERA. This year he sits at 4.6. The xERA both years? 3.3 and 3.5 respectively. The peripherals and expected stats all suggest that Cease is underperforming this year and I agree. Let’s limit that hard contact in the second half of the year with a nicer schedule and Cease should give you something closer to that 3.5 ERA than the 4.5 we have seen to date. Go get him from his frustrated owner.
Three Sells
Cal Raleigh
This guy can mash. No denying it. This is a gut call as I am skeptical as anything that he continues to mash like this for the whole second half. If someone is willing to pay a top 20 player for Raleigh, I am selling him. Short of that, take your chances with the Big Dumper. He is having a career year with career highs in everything. He is hitting .270 but is a career .230 hitter. That’s really the only thing going in my favor here telling you to sell Cal. Don’t be foolish and give him up for Alejandro Kirk, but if someone is going to offer you Corey Seager plus Kirk for Cal, that is something that I would do and get ahead of the regression that is sure to come.
Eugenio Suarez
The expectation here is the Suarez gets traded prior to the deadline. Arizona is helping that power tremendously. The dude has what seems like 50 home runs in the last calendar year. This is another case of putting up career numbers and I think regression hits hard in the second half of the year. In Suarez’s case, it is the slugging percentage. Always a big barrel guy, Suarez has been inconsistent with the hard hit percentage. He is pacing at 50% this year, up from a career average of 39.8%. The last few years Suarez’ hard hit was more like 44%, which is where I would see him sitting the remainder of the year. If you can pump an owner up on the power and runs scored, look to move Suarez for someone that will run and get you 5-10 home runs. Chances are, if you can get someone with 10 homeruns left in them, that will match what Suarez puts up.
Matthew Boyd
The last time Boyd threw over 100 innings in a season, 2019. That was the last of 3 consecutive years hitting 100. He had 170 in 2018 and 135 in 2017. The next 3 years Boyd threw 60, 78, and 13 innings. The workload scares me. Chicago has playoff aspirations and will need as much healthy pitching as possible in October. After Imanaga, Boyd is the best option. Yes, I expect someone not currently on the Cubs roster to slot as their #2 playoff pitcher, but you still need 3 starters to even have a chance in a 5 game series, let alone a 7 gamer. I think the Cubs will give Boyd a 5 inning leash more frequently than not down the stretch run. The ERA will climb a bit, and the strikeouts are lacking for the number of innings we will see. As has been the theme with these sells, I see good production for the player, but not anywhere near what we have seen to this point. If you can get a Casey Mize or pick up a struggling Yoshinobu Yamamoto, or pull in Nick Pivetta, make that move.
Three Holds
Drew Rasmussen
I know what you are thinking. How can you sell Boyd but hold Rasmussen. The Rays literally pulled him after 2 innings in his last start! Boyd has been so much better! Exactly. That is why Rasmussen is a hold. I doubt you are going to get anything of value in a trade for him with the other owner knowing he is being held to an innings limit. At this point you have to ride it out. You could drop him, but someone will scoop him up and get good ratios over 4-5 inning starts the rest of the year. There are anywhere between 12-14 starts for pitchers from this point on. Rasmussen has 150 IP to top out at (plus the playoffs) and already sits at 90 innings. That leaves 60 innings for (hopefully for the Rays) 16 more starts. I would anticipate 12 or so starts in the regular season and 40 innings from those starts. That is less than 4 innings per outing. They will not want him throwing 3 innings in September before playoff baseball when they will need 5 innings from him. I expect his July starts to be around 2-3 innings and 50 pitches ramping up in August to 60 piches over 3-4 inning starts and getting back to 5 innings and 85 pitches in September. Weather the storm for a couple of months and do not sell low.
Spencer Steer
I think Spencer Steer has recovered from his early season struggles. The power came back in June (with help from a 3 homer game), the hits are dropping more frequently, and he is starting to run a little bit (1 steal in April, 2 in May, 3 in June - at this rate he will swipe 15 more in the second half!).He is first base and outfield eligible. First base has been a position that has really been a struggle for fantasy players this year. While there is always a chance that Steer gets hurt again, there is also a chance he falls into another 20/20 season again. The RBIs aren’t there right now, but those have ticked up in the last 30 days. Nearly half (17/37) of his season RBI total have come in that time, along with half of his home runs and half of his stolen bases. I would not be looking to move off of Steer to capitalize on this hot run because I expect it to continue. Look for a .270 average with a .330 OBP, 12 more home runs, 80 RBI+Runs, and 10 stolen bases after the break.
Christian Walker
Another Astros first base signing that has not worked out as anticipated. Striking out nearly as many times as he has been on base (96 vs 101), Walker has struggled for the better part of the year, but as the Astros have gone on a tear, so too has Walker. I do not believe this is a coincidence. Yes, everyone plays everyone now in MLB, but it is still tough moving from one league to the other. You do not get to see the pitchers as often in the other league and your division film is not typically coming from intraleague games. While Walker never really had a major difference in his home/away splits, Arizona has been a better park to hit in than Houston over the last 3 years, in part because Houston is ranked 20th by ballpark factor this year, Walker’s first in the city. It seems Walker is starting to feel right again as he continues to be further removed from his oblique injury and gains comfort with his new team and surroundings. Another first basemen that could be a boon to a position that has been relatively lacking, I expect a normalized second half from Walker coming up. A top 10-13 finish is expected at the position to close out the year strong in year 1 at Houston.