Ongoing Research

“Minimum Wages and the Rise in Solo Self-Employment” (joint with Ulrich Zierahn-Weilage and Angelika Ganserer), updated January 2024, Major Revision at Industrial and Labor Relations Review.

Effects of a minimum wage introduction on the share of solo self-employed individuals (synthetic difference-in-differences)

The figure shows the estimates for East and West Germany based on the synthetic difference-indifferences outlined in Equation 1. The 95 % confidence intervals are based on bootstrapped standard errors with 100 replications. The dashed line represents the introduction of minimum wages in 1997.

Abstract: Within a quasi-experimental setting, we show that the first-time adoption of industry-specific minimum wages led to a doubling in the share of solo self-employment in areas with a strong bite. We explain this with the minimum wage-driven cost shock, which led to reduced labor demand and wages for dependent employment while creating incentives for independent employment. Our results suggest that dependent workers have been involuntarily pushed into more precarious alternative work arrangements, with poorer social security and lower incomes. Such unintended side effects are likely to occur when the minimum wage is set extraordinarily high, especially during an economic downturn.

Press: IZA Newsroom, ZEW News.

Versions: Earlier versions published as IZA Discussion Paper No. 15283 as well as ZEW Discussion Paper No. 22-024 .

"Firm-level Technology Adoption in Times of Crisis" (joint with Melanie Arntz, Michael Böhm, Georg Graetz, Florian Lehmer and Cäcilia Lipowski), 2025, updated in Aug, submitted.

Annualized investment rates in frontier technology before and during Covid-19

The figure shows the investment rates in office and production frontier technology before versus during the Covid-19 pandemic. Investments during the pandemic are further categorized based on whether

they were made due to the pandemic. Only main investments included. Annualized numbers from Table 3 in the paper are given that the period before (during) the pandemic was on average approximately 3.54 (2.11) years long.

Abstract: We investigate the diffusion of frontier technologies across German firms before and during the Covid-19 crisis. Our analysis tracks the nature, timing, and pandemic-related motivations behind technology investments, using tailor-made longitudinal survey data linked to administrative worker-firm records. Technologies adopted after the onset of the pandemic increasingly facilitated remote work and mitigated the negative employment effects of the crisis. Overall, however, investments in frontier technologies declined sharply, equivalent to a loss of 1.4 years of pre-pandemic investment activity. This procyclical adoption pattern is particularly striking since the pandemic created clear incentives to experiment with new technologies. Our findings highlight how short-run fluctuations may influence medium-run economic growth through their impact on technology diffusion.

Press: Der Spiegel, t3n, Heise Online, ZEW press release, Mannheimer Morgen, Markenartikel, IZA Newsroom.

Versions: Published as ZEW Discussion Paper No 24-057. See also ZEW Policy Brief No. 24-14.

“Frontier Technology Adopters and the Aggregate Decline of Routine Jobs” (joint with Melanie Arntz, Sabrina Genz, Florian Lehmer, and Ulrich Zierahn-Weilage), 2024, updated in July, submitted.

De-routinization by adoption group between 2011 and 2016, Germany

The figure depicts the change in the share of occupations by task domain among the workforce employed at adoption group g. Weighted with time-varying employment-weighted firm stratification weights.

Abstract: This paper highlights the nuanced relationship between firms' technology adoption and the employment structure of the economy. Leveraging a novel firm survey that we link to German administrative employment records, we categorize firms based on their technology adoption status. We find that frontier technology adopters significantly contribute to the economy-wide decline in routine and rise of non-routine cognitive jobs, primarily through firms with complementary workforce skills. Our results suggest (1) a continued de-routinization with frontier technology adoption, (2) the importance of complementary skills for the decline of routine jobs, and (3) a fallacy of drawing economy-wide conclusions from within-firm workforce adjustments.

Press: IZA Newsroom

Awards: Best Poster Award 2018 of the European Association of Labour Economics (EALE) .

Versions: Earlier version published as IZA Discussion Paper No 16740 and ZEW Discussion Paper.

“AI-Powered Skill Classification: Mapping Technology Intensity in the German Labor Market” (joint with Sabrina Genz, and Florian Lehmer), 2025, updated in May, submitted.

Ranking of occupational groups by frontier skills

Figure displays average shares of manual, digital, and frontier skills across occupational groups at the 2-digit KldB2010 level, weighted by employment shares from the 5-digit KldB2010 classification.

Abstract: The rapid evolution of technology is reshaping labor markets, driving demand for new skills, and transforming job profiles. This paper introduces a novel skill-based measure to rank occupations by their technology intensity, distinguishing between manual, digital, and frontier technologies including artificial intelligence (AI). Leveraging natural language processing, generative AI, and machine learning, we classify job competencies which allows us to compute technology skill intensities for all occupations at the German labor market. Our findings indicate that, as of 2023, frontier technologies are concentrated in specialized occupations, while digitalization is widespread. By linking these measures to administrative labor market data, we track the evolution of digital and frontier skills from 2012 to 2023 and assess their association with employment growth.

"Impact of Firm-Level Technology Adoption on Workers" (joint with Sabrina Genz and Florian Lehmer), 2025, currently in revision.

Abstract: We estimate the impact of firm-level adoption of new digital technologies on workers wages, employment stability, and earnings. For this, we collected novel data that links survey information on firms' technology adoption to administrative social security data. Our survey measure allows us to distinguish between waves of technology and captures not only developments in automation but also digitalization spurred by a greater connection of technologies. After providing some stylized facts on technology adoption in Germany, we compare individual outcomes of comparable workers employed at technology adopters with those at non-adopters. Endogenous firm-level technology adoption is instrumented with firms' historical share of tech workers prior to the imvestment. Depending on the wave of technology, we find evidence for improved employment stability, higher wage growth, and increased cumulative earnings in response to digital technology adoption.

Press: IZA Newsroom, NBC

Versions: earlier version published as IZA Discussion Paper No 14626 and ZEW Discussion Paper No. 21-073.

Work in progress

“Evolving Skill Demands in the Age of AI: Evidence from Europe” (joint with Najada Feimi, Christina Gathmann, and David Marguerit).

Abtract: The capabilities of AI have expanded rapidly in recent years; yet, our understanding how AI affects labor demand remains very limited. We combine a novel measure of automation with a comprehensive dataset of 31 million online job ads from four European countries to investigate how the demand for skills and jobs has shifted in response to AI. Our analysis relies on advanced ML models to extract and classify skills from job ads in multiple languages. We document a significant growth in the demand for AI and data skills, a decline in the need for prediction skills and no change in the demand for judgment skills since 2018. Linking the observed skill demands to a novel measure of AI exposure, we find a strong positive relationship of AI with skills in AI, data management, and prediction in line with the ongoing adoption of AI in companies. AI also increases the demand for judgment, decision-making and social skills, which points to a rising need to integrate AI and human-machine interactions into the production process.

"Do Minimum Wages Encourage Capital Deepening?” (joint with Christina Gathmann and Boris Ivanov).

Abtract: Much of the literature on the labor market impact of minimum wages has focused on employment or displacement effects. We investigate instead whether the adoption of minimum wages encourages firms to invest in capital intensity or outsource some of their production steps. Our analysis exploits rich balance sheet data, matched with administrative data, on firms that became exposed to industry-specific minimum wages in Germany. The data allows us to investigate whether incumbent firms with more scope for capital-labor substitution increase their capital intensity, and/or whether firms entering the treated industries raise their capital intensity after the minimum wage introduction. We also look at the effect of minimum wages on outsourcing, and show how firms adjust their workforce alongside changes in capital expenditures.

"Frontier Technologies and the Greening of Occupations?” (joint with Christina Gathmann and Natella Agikyan).

Abtract: This paper examines how the green and digital transformations—particularly the rise of frontier technologies—are reshaping occupational structures and labor market outcomes in Norway. By developing novel, data-driven measures of green and frontier skills across occupations, we assess their relationship with wage and employment growth from 2015 to 2022. Using machine learning to classify job competencies and merging detailed Norwegian microdata, we identify how the demand for green and high-tech skills interacts, and whether this shift is skill- or group-biased. Our findings contribute to debates on skill-biased technological change and directed innovation in the context of environmental and digital transitions.

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