Taylan Alpkaya

I am a fifth-year PhD student in economics at the University of Mannheim. I work at the intersection of economic history and labor economics. Most of my research estimates intergenerational mobility using historical US data, with additional work on migration and the persistent effects of early-life events. I am advised by Philipp Ager, Camille Urvoy, and Antonio Ciccone.

My job market paper builds the first comprehensive dataset on colonial-era migration to the US and studies long-run multigenerational inequalities among descendants of early settler groups.

I will be on the academic job market in 2026–2027.

While not my main research field, I am also very interested in Turkish political economy. I would be happy to chat about it!

Here is my CV. I am open to collaborations, so please feel free to reach out -- taylanalpkaya@gmail.com

Research

Job Market Paper

Legacy of Servitude: Long-Run Intergenerational Mobility in the US (draft available upon request)

Abstract: This paper provides the first estimates of intergenerational mobility in the antebellum United States. Using surname-based estimators and novel data on colonial migration, I examine the intergenerational mobility of Americans who descended from transported English convicts, who accounted for 10% of all white immigrants during the colonial period. I find that having a convict ancestor is associated with a 9% lower probability of real estate ownership in 1850, a disadvantage that persists at 8% by 1940. This pattern extends to various socioeconomic outcomes. Leveraging exogenous variation in convicts' arrival locations in the US, I show that geographic factors play a crucial role in the persistence of inequality. I further demonstrate that attributes specific to convicts, such as criminal tendencies or social stigmatization, cannot fully account for these results. I calculate a lower-bound intergenerational wealth elasticity estimate of 0.63 between 1750 and 1850. These findings provide new insights into the long-term persistence of initial disadvantages and the structural barriers to social mobility faced by the bottom strata of society.

Work in Progress

Multigenerational Mobility and Long-Run Inequality (with Yonatan Berman and Ravi Kanbur, draft available upon request)
Historical Development of Inequality of Opportunity in the United States (with Francisco Ferreira)
Colonial Migration to the US (with Taylor Jaworski)
Formative Years: Early Life Experiences and Decisions of Federal Judges (with Pablo Zarate)

Research on Turkish Political Economy

Catastrophes, Social Ties, and Voting Behavior: Evidence from Turkey (joint work with Berkeren Büyükeren, slides available upon request)
Clientelism in Public Procurement: Evidence from Turkish Municipalities

Teaching

Teaching Assistant to Nicolas Schutz, Microeconomics I at PhD level (2022-2025)