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In this part, all costs and benefits of playing in the rift will be discussed in order to choose the best plan(s) which helps new players to gain in the rift efficiently. Note all floating data are referenced in 4th May, 2022, equipment's price are obtained from the lowest market price, intended to leave an upside surprise to novices.
Costs of challenging the rift
NFT Skins
At least 1 NFT skin is required to challenge the rift, but having 3 skins is more efficient in terms of stamina and cost of getting element resistances, so having at least 3 NFT skins will be our assumption. Also, It is assumed that even R skins are sufficient to complete any stages of the rift if the equipment is strong enough.
The cost of skins is as follows: R -- 9 BUSD, SR -- 15 BUSD, SSR -- 130 BUSD, SP -- estimated 1200 BUSD (limited data)
Upgrading
Upgrading a skin requires Magic Crystal and Tap token as a fee, here are the details:
Equipment
As aforementioned, it is required to have equipment of at most 1 star lower than the monsters. While the equipment is definitely obtainable by playing for some time (a week or two), some might want to challenge the rift directly, which leads to the following form regarding the cost to buy equipment:
Stamina
For rift 1, 55 stamina is needed. For rift 2, 70 stamina is needed. For rift 3, 90 stamina is needed.
Entry fees
To challenge the rift, an entry fee is needed each time, but the fee is relatively small (<5%) so we ignore this variable here.
Benefits of challenging the rift
By using a certain amount of AP to finish the rift, benefits in form of gems, keys, and equipment are given. The following form demonstrates the benefit of each rift:
Gems
For every 20k gems, a chaotic equipment chest can be obtained. There are 9 to 13 pieces of 9 stars or 10 stars equipment, with a 20% chance of 1 more 15 stars equipment. This is equivalent to 0.92 14 stars equipment. By taking the average of 14 stars equipment, every 100 gems are worth 0.0298 golds.
Keys
For Lucky Chest, there is a 30% chance to get a magic crystal (worth 1.05 BUSD), a 1.9% chance to get an R skin, a 4.24% to get a 15 stars artifact, and a 63.86% chance to get a 10 stars artifact. The expected value of one such chest is 6.45 golds.
For Hero Chest, there is a 30% chance to get 4 magic crystals, a 2.72% chance to get an R skin, a 2.56% to get a 17 stars artifact, and a 64.72% chance to get a 12 stars artifact. The expected value of one such chest is 20.12 golds.
For Miracle Chest, there is a 30% chance to get 11 magic crystals, a 0.72% chance to get an SR skin, a 7.04% chance to get an R skin, a 1.88% to get a 19 stars artifact, and a 60.36% chance to get a 14 stars artifact. The expected value of one such chest is 65.21 golds.
Equipment
Under the standardized cost, a 9 stars weapon is worth 0.28 gold, a 9 stars armor is worth 0.22 gold, a 9 stars glove is worth 0.19 gold, and a 9 stars helmet is worth 0.13 gold.
Cost-benefit analysis of each rift
It could be easily seen that the rift that produces weapons provides much more benefit than the rift that produces helmets. This session will consider most of the factors -- different profitability of rifts, the chance of getting correct element resistances, and the expected profit on a stamina-based calculation.
Fixed costs
Upgrading cost
Provided that for each upgrade, there is a 1/4 chance to obtain a specific element resistance, the expected value of the number of upgrades to obtain 6 same elements is 5.86, regardless of the kind of element, which leads to an estimated expected upgrade cost of 263.7 BUSD. However, an R rarity skin with one element resistance on the marketplace is usually costing 50 BUSD to 70 BUSD. From this example, unless you would like to try your luck, we can see that buying from the marketplace occurs lower cost than upgrading by yourself! Therefore, the fixed cost of obtaining NFT with suitable elements is based on the marketplace rate, which leads us to the next part.
Buying NFT skins
Assuming rarity R NFT skins can do the job well, 3, 6, 12 NFT skins are needed to be bought in order to fulfill different advance replenish requirements respectively, which means 27, 54, and 108 BUSD are needed respectively. Among them, a total of 6, 12, or 18 element resistances must be achieved.
Referencing the marketplace on the official website, an addition of 190 BUSD helps to achieve 6 fire elements (the most productive one), an addition of 1000 BUSD helps to achieve 12 fire elements, and an addition of 3200 BUSD helps to achieve 18 fire elements.
Equipment
For rift 1, 15 stars core equipment is needed, converting to a fixed cost of 156 golds.
For rift 2, 16 stars core equipment is needed, converting to a fixed cost of 312 golds.
For rift 3, 18 stars core equipment is needed, converting to a fixed cost of 1248 golds.
Variable costs
Only stamina is the variable cost as we ignore the effect of the entry fee due to its immaterial effect. The costs per stamina are:
0.015 gold/stamina for first 50 extra stamina, 0.05 gold/stamina for next 40 extra stamina (generating an avoidable fixed cost of 27 BUSD), 0.1 gold/stamina for next 40 stamina (generating another avoidable fixed cost of 36 BUSD), 0.35 gold/stamina for next 40 stamina (generating another avoidable fixed cost of 120 BUSD). Note that for the later options, the assumed NFT skins price increased, this is due to the fact that you need NFT skins of different characters to enjoy the benefit, which might not always be as cheap as 9 BUSD.
Moreover, there are 48 free APs every day.
Benefits
Water rift
Rift 1: Expected gold output per stamina is 0.362 gold/stamina
Rift 2: Expected gold output per stamina is 0.805 gold/stamina
Rift 3: Expected gold output per stamina is 2.145 gold/stamina
Fire rift
Rift 1: Expected gold output per stamina is 0.397 gold/stamina
Rift 2: Expected gold output per stamina is 0.876 gold/stamina
Rift 3: Expected gold output per stamina is 2.373 gold/stamina
Wind rift
Rift 1: Expected gold output per stamina is 0.344 gold/stamina
Rift 2: Expected gold output per stamina is 0.769 gold/stamina
Rift 3: Expected gold output per stamina is 2.031 gold/stamina
Earth rift
Rift 1: Expected gold output per stamina is 0.309 gold/stamina
Rift 2: Expected gold output per stamina is 0.698 gold/stamina
Rift 3: Expected gold output per stamina is 1.803 gold/stamina
Calculations
The below form shows the daily contribution margin (daily net gain, after consideration of stamina cost) of different strategies:
The below form shows the fixed cost of different strategies:
The below form shows the payback period of different strategies:
Note that the effect of the change in weekly output is considered. This is referred to the event that every week, one rift out of 4 will suffer a 33% drop in output, while another one gains a 50% increase in output, the other two remain the same productivity, the rifts selected are completely random. Since it raises the expected outcome, the productions are multiplied by 25/24.
Conclusion & Risks
From the calculations above, it seems like one should choose the fire rift, buy 6 R-rarity NFT skins and challenge rift 1 only. However, there are other factors that shall alter your choice. For example, playing in fire rift 3 with 12 NFT skins looks like a good idea if you are seeking juicy rewards after the 70 days payback period. Nevertheless, it should be noted that all options with a payback period longer than 90 days should be avoided because of the reset system of the game. The reset system, or the season system, refers to the clearance of any equipment, character level, and other temporary items, if the payback period is too long, it might be further extended after the reset. Moreover, you should also choose your strategies based on other rewards. Since they are not the main topic here, merely a brief introduction will be provided.
Risk
Notice that all of the returns are not guaranteed, in fact, these figures will almost certainly not appear in anyone's account. This is because of the use of expected value, which just seeks to get the average value instead of an actual value of someone's account. Even if the calculations are very close to real-life scenarios, one must be aware of the volatility of the assets. The price of all assets here can experience a 1000% increase or a 99% decrease in a short period of time. If you are an investor, please do your own diligent research and bear any consequences. If you are looking to play and earn, then please enjoy the game as you would in other games!
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