The global CGE model (GRACE) at CICERO

The model for Global Responses to Anthropogenic Change in the Environment (GRACE) is a multi-sector, multi-regional, recursively dynamic global computable general equilibrium model (CGE) written in GAMS and based on GTAP database. The initial version of the model was developed at CICERO by Aaheim and Rive (2005) for long-term economic analysis of climate change impacts and greenhouse gas abatement policy. It was designed to allow for additional modules for analysis, including emissions permit trading and climate impacts on economic sectors. Coupled with an atmospheric model, the model can also be used for integrated assessment modelling of the climate and economy. Since then several versions have been developed by updating data and certain modules for various studies.

A very brief introduction of GRACE. More general introduction is here.

Technical description

 Initial version

Aaheim, H. A. and N. Rive (2005). A Model for Global Responses to Anthropogenic Changes in the Environment (GRACE). Report. Oslo, Norway, CICERO. 2005:05.

An updated version focusing on the electricity sector

Rive, N. and T. K. Mideksa (2009). Disaggregating the Electricity Sector in the GRACE Model. Report. Oslo, Norway, CICERO. 2009:02: 18.

An updated introduction of the model and application

Aaheim, H.A., A. Orlov, T. Wei, and S. Glomsrød (2018). GRACE model and applications. Report. Oslo, Norway, CICERO. 2018:01: 47.

The documentation at IAMC wiki

Other versions are supplemented in various studies

For example, one version developed a detailed module for forestry in India. Another version divided Europe into 85 subregions and introduced sectoral impact functions of climate change. The version with impact functions is then modified to simulate RCP scenarios until 2100. There is also a version simulating the Copenhagen Accord scenario and a version decomposing Chinese agricultural activity into 31 provinces. One version focusing China has soft-linked to climate models to estimate policy impacts on climate. A new version is under development with detailed description of households’ behaviour in China.

Publications

Peer-reviewed journal articles

1. Ma, L.,  T. Wei, K. Nordling , and A. Aaheim (2024). "Impacts of Global Warming on Regional Energy and Economy: Uneven consequences arising from global warming-induced heating and cooling demand of households". Climate Change Economics.

2. Wei, T. and S. Glomsrød (2023). "Cost reduction in low-carbon hydrogen: effective but insufficient to mitigate carbon emissions." Discover Energy 3(1): 2. 

3. Lindholt, L. and T. Wei (2023). "The Effects on Energy Markets of Achieving a 1.5°C Scenario." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20(5): 4341.

4.  Zhang, T., K. van der Wiel, T. Wei, J. Screen, X. Yue, B. Zheng, F. Selten, R. Bintanja, W. Anderson, R. Blackport, S. Glomsrød, Y. Liu, X. Cui and X. Yang (2022). "Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2°C global warming." One Earth 5(8): 907-916.

5.  Orlov, A., A. S. Daloz, J. Sillmann, W. Thiery, C. Douzal, Q. Lejeune and C. Schleussner (2021). "Global Economic Responses to Heat Stress Impacts on Worker Productivity in Crop Production." Economics of Disasters and Climate Change.

6.  Orlov, A., J. Sillmann, K. Aunan, T. Kjellstrom and A. Aaheim (2020). "Economic costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity due to global warming." Global Environmental Change 63: 102087.

7.  Carattini, S., Kallbekken, S., & Orlov, A. (2019). "How to win public support for a global carbon tax. " Nature, 565(7739), 289–291.

8.  Orlov, A., J. Sillmann, A. Aaheim, K. Aunan and K. de Bruin (2019). "Economic Losses of Heat-Induced Reductions in Outdoor Worker Productivity: a Case Study of Europe." Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 3(3): 191-211.

9. Wei, T., T. Zhang, X. Cui, S. Glomsrød and Y. Liu (2019). "Potential influence of climate change on grain self-sufficiency at the country level considering adaptation measures." Earth's Future (7).

10.  Liu, Y., T. Wei and D. Park (2019). “Macroeconomic impacts of energy productivity: a general equilibrium perspective.” Energy Efficiency.

11.  Wei, T.; Zhu, Q.; Glomsrød, S. “Ageing impact on the economy and emissions in china: A global computable general equilibrium analysis.” Energies 2018, 11, 817.

12.  Glomsrød, S. and T. Wei (2018). "Business as unusual: The implications of fossil divestment and green bonds for financial flows, economic growth and energy market." Energy for Sustainable Development 44: 1-10.

13.  Wei, T., Q. Zhu and S. Glomsrød (2018). "How will demographic characteristics of the labor force matter for the global economy and carbon dioxide emissions?" Ecological Economics, 147: 197-207.

14.  Orlov, A. and A. Aaheim (2017). "Economy-wide effects of international and Russia's climate policies." Energy Economics, 68: 466-477.

15.  Orlov, A. (2017). "Distributional effects of higher natural gas prices in Russia." Energy Policy 109 (Supplement C): 590-600.

16.  Wei, T. and Y. Liu (2017). “Estimation of global rebound effect caused by energy efficiency improvement.” Energy Economics, 66: 27-34

17.  Aaheim, A., A. Orlov, R. K. Chaturvedi, P. Joshi, A. Sagadevan and N. H. Ravindranath (2017). "Lost benefits and carbon uptake by protection of Indian plantations." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change forthcoming.

18.  Zhu, Q. and T. Wei (2017). “Implications of Population Aging for Labor Supply and Economic Growth in China: A CGE Analysis.” Population Research, 2017, 41(4): 8-21 [In Chinese: 朱勤，魏涛远 (2017). "老龄化背景下中国劳动供给变动及其经济影响: 基于 CGE 模型的分析." 人口研究 41(4): 8-21].

19.  Wei, T., S. Glomsrød, and  T. Zhang (2017). “Extreme weather, food security and the capacity to adapt - the case of crops in China” Food Security, 9(3), 523-535

20.  Glomsrød, S., T. Wei, B. Aamaas,  M. Lund, and B. Samset (2016). “A warmer policy for a colder climate: Can China both reduce poverty and cap carbon emissions?” Science of the Total Environment 568 (2016) 236-244

21.  Aaheim, A., T. Wei, and B. Romstad (2016). “Conflicts of economic interests by limiting global warming to +3 °C” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 22 (8), 1131-1148

22.  Liu, Y., and T. Wei (2016). “Linking the emissions trading schemes of Europe and China - Combining climate and energy policy instruments” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 21 (2) 135-151

23.  Glomsrød, S. and T. Wei (2016). “The effects of energy efficiency improvement in China with global interaction” AIMS Energy 4 (1) 37-51

24.  Aaheim, A., B. Romstad, T. Wei, J.-E. Kristjansson, H. Muri, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt (2015). “An economic evaluation of solar radiation management” Science of the Total Environment 532 (2015) 61-69

25.  Underdal, A. and T. Wei (2015). “Distributive fairness: a mutual recognition approach” Environmental Science and Policy 51 (2015) 35-44

26.  Glomsrød S., T. Wei, T. Mideksa, B.H. Samset (2015). “Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 20 (8) 1511-1527

27.  Glomsrød, S., T. Wei and K. Alfsen (2013). "Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO2 emissions and mitigation costs." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18(5): 619-636.

28.  Aaheim, A., H. Amundsen, T. Dokken and T. Wei (2012). "Impacts and adaptation to climate change in European economies." Global Environmental Change 22(4): 959-968.

29. Eskeland, G. S., N. A. Rive and T. K. Mideksa (2012). "Europe’s climate goals and the electricity sector." Energy Policy 41(0): 200-211.

30.  Aaheim, A., R. Gopalakrishnan, R. Chaturvedi, N. Ravindranath, A. Sagadevan, N. Sharma and T. Wei (2011). "A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 16(2): 229-245.

31.  Rive, N. (2010). "Climate policy in Western Europe and avoided costs of air pollution control." Economic Modelling 27(1): 103-115.

32.  Rive, N. and D. G. Rübbelke (2010). "International environmental policy and poverty alleviation." Review of World Economics 146(3): 515-543.

33.  Rypdal, K., N. Rive, S. Åström, N. Karvosenoja, K. Aunan, J. L. Bak, K. Kupiainen and J. Kukkonen (2007). "Nordic air quality co-benefits from European post-2012 climate policies." Energy Policy 35(12): 6309-6322.

Other published material

1.  Wei, T. and H. A. Aaheim (2021). "Economic Damage of Climate Change: How Far is it From the Physical Damage?" In: Climate and Development. A. Markandya and D. Rubbelke, World Scientific: 115-135.

2.  Aaheim, A., J. West, and A. Orlov (2016). “National and local perspectives on Adaptation Strategies in Tanzania's Agricultural sector.” Part 1.3 in Kulindwa, K, D.S. Silayo, E. Zahabu, R. Lokina, J. Hella, A. Hepelwa, D. Shirima, S. Macrice, and S. Kalonga (2016). Lessons and Implications for REDD+: Implementation Experiences from Tanzania. Tanzania: E&D Vision Publishing ISBN 9789987735532. s. 41-64

3.  Liu, Y. and T. Wei (2016). Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Efficiency Improvement: A General Equilibrium Perspective. Fourth Green Growth Knowledge Platform Annual Conference (2016).

4.  Glomsrød, S. and T. Wei (2016). Business as UNusual - The implications of fossil divestment and green bonds for financial flows, economic growth and energy market. CICERO Working paper 2016: 01.

5.  Aaheim, A, G. Ahlert, M. Meyer, B. Meyer, A. Orlov, C. Heyndrickx (2015): Integration of top-down and bottom-up analyses of adaptation to climate change in Europe – the cases of energy, tourism, transport and health. Deliverable D3.4 from ToPDAd to EU FP7

6.  Aaheim, A., J.H. Garcia (2013): “Synergies between adaptation and mitigation and the complexity of REDD+”, Chapter 4 in A. Markandya, I. Galarraga, E. Sainz de Murieta (ed.) (2014): Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Climate Change Adaptation, Routledge

7.  Aaheim, H. A., S. W. Skjeflo and T. Wei. (2010). "Impacts of climate change on the Norwegian economy." Klima (NORKLIMA),2010(3).

8.  Wei, T. and H. A. Aaheim (2010). Impacts of climate change to the global economy in the ENSEMBLES +2 °C scenario E1. Oslo, Norway, CICERO. Report 2010: 01.

9.  Aaheim; A. and T. Wei (2009). Macro-economic analysis – Model Output. The ADAM Digital Compendium. Available at http://adam-digital-compendium.pik-potsdam.de/macro-economic-analysis/model-output/

10.  Aaheim, A., T. Dokken, S. Hochrainer, A. Hof, E. Jochem, R. Mechler and D. P. v. Vuuren (2009). National responsibilities for adaptation strategies: lessons from four modelling frameworks, Chapter 4. Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adapation and Mitigation Strategies. M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt, Cambridge University Press.

11.  Rive, N., H. A. Aaheim and K. Hauge (2005). Adaptation and world market effects of climate change on forestry and forestry products. Lübeck, Presented at annual GTAP Conference 2005.

Projects

1. 2023 – 2025. “Norway in the European green transition - Strategies and policy measures combining cost effective emission reduction with high acceptability.” External finance: Research Council of Norway. 

2.         2020 – 2023. “Stress-testing the Norwegian economy: The effects of the 1.5°C scenario on global energy markets and the Norwegian economy. ” External finance: Research Council of Norway.

3.           2020 – 2025. “Development of a highly Efficient and Practical Carbon Management System for Improving Qatar’s Sustainability: A holistic approach. ” External finance: Qatar National Research Fund.

4.           2019 – 2023. “REmote Climate Effects and their Impact on European sustainability, Policy and Trade (RECEIPT).” External finance: H2020-EU.3.5.1.

5.           2019 – 2022. “LAnd MAnagement for CLImate Mitigation and Adaptation (LAMACLIMA).” External finance: Research Council of Norway (JPI-AXIS).

6.           2018 – 2021. “Waste Food-Energy-Water Urban Living Lab - Mapping and Reducing Waste in the Food-Energy-Nexus (WASTE FEW ULL).” External finance: Research Council of Norway (JPI-Belmont Urban).

7.           2016 – 2019 “High Impact Weather Events in EurAsia Selected, Simulated and Storified (HIWAVES3).” External finance: Research Council of Norway (JPI-Belmont).

8.           2015 – 2018 “Ageing population and social reforms in China: Consequences for economic growth and global climate.” External finance: Research Council of Norway.

9.           2015 – 2017. “Energy efficiency policies in emerging economies to promote economic growth and climate mitigation.” External finance: Research Council of Norway.

10.           2014 – 2015. “Implications of ageing and urbanization in China for economic growth and climate.” External finance: Research Council of Norway.

11.           2013 – 2013. “Rebound effects in Chinese electricity sector.” External finance: Research Council of Norway.

12.        2012 – 2015  “European Trans-disciplinary Assessment of Climate Engineering (EuTRACE)” External finance: the European Union's Framework-7 Programme (FP7).

13.        2012 – 2015 “Climate change and adaptation in the forest plantation sector – an ecological and economic assessment for India (MAFOR).” External finance: Research Council of Norway.

14.        2012 – 2015 “Climate change and Chinese agriculture: Effects on food production and options for adaptation.” Joint external finance: Research Council of Norway and Chinese Academy of Sciences.

15.        2012 – 2015 “Tool-supported policy-development for regional adaptation (TopDad).” External finance: the European Union's Framework-7 Programme (FP7).

16.        2011 – 2018 “CICEP - Strategic Challenges in International Climate and Energy Policy” (FME center). Main external finance: Research Council of Norway.

17.        2011 – 2016. “Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation programme (HICAP).” External finance: Research Council of Norway. External finance: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway.

18.        2010 – 2014. “Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in Tanzania (CCIAM).” External finance: Royal Norwegian Embassy of Tanzania.

19.        2007 – 2013. The IMPLICC project: “Implications and risks of engineering solar radiation to limit climate change.” External finance: the European Union's Framework-7 Programme (FP7).

20.        2010 – 2011. ”SIP - Tilpasning til klimaendringer i makroøkonomiske modeller for utviklingsland - Integrasjon av sektorstudier.” External finance: Research Council of Norway.

21.        2010 – 2013. “Large developing economies: current and potential future contributions to climate change.” External finance: Research Council of Norway.

22.        2008 – 2011. “Domestic and petroleum sector implications of different international climate regimes.” External finance: StatoilHydro.

23.        2007 – 2010. The NorClim project: “Climate of Norway and the Arctic in the 21st Century.” External finance: Research Council of Norway.

24.        2007 – 2009. “Impact of Climate Change on Tropical Forest Ecosystem and Biodiversity in India.” External finance: Royal Norwegian Embassy in New Delhi, India.

25.        2007 - 2010. ALIANSE: Assesses the macroeconomic consequences of climate change in Norway based on existing knowledge. External finance: Research Council of Norway. Parallel funding to supplement ADAM project.

26.        2006 – 2009. The ADAM project: “Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Supporting European Climate policy.” External finance: the European Community's Framework 6 Programme (FP6).

27.        2004 – 2009. The ENSEMBLES project: “integrating climate change impacts studies into an ensemble prediction system.” External finance: the European Community's Framework 6 Programme (FP6).

28.        2003 – 2005. “CATRINE - Climate change and associated trade patterns - Impacts for the Norwegian economy.” External finance: Research Council of Norway.

Updated by Taoyuan Wei.