The Agenda

Welcome and Introductory Remarks

Welcome attendees, introduce partners, and review of the Southwest Drought Virtual Forum objectives and why this discussion is so critical at this time for the region.

• Veva Deheza, NOAA/NIDIS Executive Director

• Dr. Richard (Rick) Spinrad, NOAA Administrator

The 2020-21 Western Drought: What are Current Conditions?

Drought subject matter experts provide an overview of current regional drought conditions and forecasted outlooks, and a wildland fire expert provides a regional wildland fire outlook. Researchers from the scientific community review what is known about the historic nature of drought in the region and what they expect to see in the future. A Q&A period follows.

• Richard Heim, NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information

• David Dewitt, NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center

• James Wallmann, DOI/BLM/National Interagency Fire Center

Setting the Stage: How did we get here?

Experts share a look back from 2000 to present day with a focus on the last two years and offer a summary of how we got here with respect to drought, setting the stage for the Forum agenda. A moderated Q&A period follows.

• Andy Hoell, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

• Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research

• Erica Fleishman, DOI/USGS Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center

Sector and Community-Based Perspectives on Cascading Drought Impacts and Needed Changes

In the face of drought and aridification, there are new and emerging challenges to ensuring adequate quality water supply to meet the needs of Southwestern communities and economies. Speakers illuminate diverse vulnerabilities and how the risk landscape is changing for diverse sectors of our economy. From the losses on agricultural lands, to threats to our nation’s energy production, impacts across key economic sectors and communities must be understood, measured, and predicted to mitigate the toll drought takes. This session features sectors and communities responding to the cascading impacts of drought.

Panel presentations are followed by moderated Q&A:

• Terry Fankhauser, Colorado Cattlemen’s Association

• Deanna Ikeya, Central Arizona Project

• Bidtah Becker, Navajo Nation

Continued: Sector and Community-based Perspectives on Cascading Drought Impacts and Needed Changes

Panel presentations followed by moderated Q&A:

• Kevin Moran, Environmental Defense Fund

• Chris Perkins, Outdoor Recreation Roundtable

• Jesse Bell, University of Nebraska Medical Center

• William Hasencamp, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California

Analysis of the Impact of Drought on Agriculture, Local Economies, Public Health, and Crime across the Western United States

This session presents recent NIDIS-supported research at Colorado State University to assess the impacts of drought on Western agricultural productivity, employment, wages paid, business openings/closings, criminal activity, and health outcomes. A Q&A period follows.

• Christopher Goemans, Colorado State University

Closeout and Review Wednesday’s Agenda

Recap of Day One and Debrief of Pre-Forum Survey

A brief summary of the September 21 session is provided and pre-forum survey results are presented as major messages for the collective community's consideration.

State, Local Government, and NGO Panel: Managing for a Changing Climate in the Southwest

Panelists discuss strategies for managing for the new (ab)normal in the Southwest, including the implications of a changing climate for long-term water planning, community experiences tackling difficult decisions around water management, innovations in water conservation, and what scientists can do to support decision-making in these areas. A Q&A period follows.

• Supervisor Patrice Horstman, Coconino County, AZ

• Kate Greenberg, Commissioner of Agriculture, State of Colorado

• Cynthia Koehler, Water Now Alliance

• Brenda Ekwurzel, Union of Concerned Scientists

Drought Coordination: Federal Government Initiatives to Address Long-term Drought Resilience in the Southwest

Federal agency leadership describes recent accomplishments of the Interagency Drought Working Group, the Water Subcabinet, and the role of the National Drought Resilience Partnership. Agencies discuss resources to address long-term drought resilience in the Southwest and manage for increasing dryness in the region. A moderated Q&A period follows.

Moderator: Roger Gorke, Office of Water, EPA

• Karen Hyun, Chief of Staff, NOAA, Department of Commerce

• Tanya Trujillo, Assistant Secretary for Water and Science, U.S. Department of the Interior

• Gloria Montaño Greene, Deputy Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation, U.S. Department of Agriculture

• Zach Schafer, Senior Advisor, Office of Water, Environmental Protection Agency

• Michael Grimm, Acting Deputy Associate Administrator, Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration

Breakout Groups Address: “What would be tangible indicators of success if we were working as a nationally integrated and coordinated system? What would it look like at the local, state, Federal, tribal, and business levels?”

Debrief of Breakout Group Recommendations

Breakout group representatives offer recommendations on the way forward to address long-term drought outcomes.

Closeout and Review of Next Week’s Agenda

Welcome and Forum Recap

A NIDIS-produced video looks back at drought in the region from the landmark drought years of 2002-2004 to present, featuring interviews with people from different economic sectors whose livelihoods are affected by drought.

Keynote Speaker: Eric Kuhn, Author and Former General Manager of the Colorado River District

Infrastructure for Managing Drought Risk and Coordination

Panelists highlight critical needs for infrastructure improvements to address long-term drought in the Southwest, including the development of nature-based solutions and innovative practices utilizing infrastructure across sectors that realize co-benefits in water conservation as water scarcity increases in the Southwest. A Q&A period follows.

Moderator: Chuck Chaitovitz, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

• Jon Radtke, Coca-Cola

• Morgan Snyder, Walton Family Foundation

• Phil Saksa, Blue Forest Conservation

• Anthea Hansen, Del Puerto Water District

• Susana De Anda, Community Water Center

Instructions and Move to Respective Breakout Groups

Breakout Groups: Exploring Solutions for Long-Term Drought Outcomes

An introduction is provided for each challenge to frame group engagement to address challenging questions and identify innovative solutions:

• What options are available to tackle increasing aridity in the agricultural sector?

• How can we make data-driven decisions to address long-term water planning challenges?

• What challenges are we facing in sustainable groundwater management and what innovations are available to address the challenges?

• How can we address efficiency and equity challenges in the development of water markets?

• How can we advance our understanding of drought impacts to ecosystems?

• How can we better leverage land use planning across the wild-urban interface?

Closeout for the Day Directly from Breakout Groups

Opening Remarks

Debrief of Breakout Group Results on Solutions for Long-Term Drought Outcomes

A summary of major messages from breakout groups is presented.

Keynote Speaker: Will Sarni, Founder and CEO, Water Foundry

Exploring Drought Risk Management through Water Markets and Financial Services

A moderated panel explores diverse approaches to drought and wildfire risk management through water markets and financial services, with discussions on reinsurance, state-led insurance initiatives, water markets, and needs to support improved mitigation and land management efforts. A Q&A period follows.

• Sarah Kapnick, JP Morgan

• Mike Hanemann, Arizona State University

• Mike Peterson, Deputy Commissioner on Climate and Sustainability, California Department of Insurance

Congressional Perspectives: Remarks by Representative Raúl Grijalva (AZ-3), Senator Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), and Representative Joe Neguse (CO-2)

Looking Forward: A Vision for a Sustainable and Healthy West in a Changing Environment

Introduction and Moderator, Roger Pulwarty, NOAA.

Panelists consider the Forum discussions from the four days and offer paths forward towards realizing a sustainable and healthy West in a changing Environment. A Q&A period follows.

• David Hayes, Executive Office of the President

• Alice Hill, Council on Foreign Relations

• John Fleck, University of New Mexico

• Bidtah Becker, Navajo Nation

Next Steps and Closing Remarks

Host will present closing remarks highlighting the major messages from the Forum and details about next steps, including a report of the Forum, and future drought dialogues.