Research

Job Market Paper

The Environment-Development Trade-off: Evaluating the Local Distributional Impacts of Clearing Forests for Infrastructure 

[World Bank Development Impact blog post]

Abstract: The trade-off between natural environmental resources and economic development has long been a subject of academic and policy concern. One such trade-off is related to the clearing of forests for infrastructure, which accounts for 80% of deforestation in India and 10% globally. In this paper I estimate the local causal effects of such infrastructure-induced forest clearing in India using the staggered timing of project approvals as a source of identifying variation. Using a large household level panel, I document five main findings.  First, forest-dependent tribal households, for whom the loss of forests represents a negative shock, experience a decline in their employment in retail trade and increased engagement in subsistence agriculture. Second, while there is no change in household incomes and consumption on average, there is considerable heterogeneity.  Both incomes and consumption rise for poorer households but not for richer households. Third, household size increases for poorer households as migrants return, but not for richer households. Fourth, occupational structure changes as households move into retail trade. Fifth, employment in skill-intensive services declines for educated households. The last two findings are consistent with the predictions of a standard Hecksher-Ohlin model of opening up to trade with a skill-abundant external economy as a result of infrastructure-induced reduction in trade costs. While there are no economic benefits for the average household, a back-of-the envelope calculation with the economic benefits to only poorer households also shows that they do not outweigh the costs if we consider the equity-adjusted social cost of carbon (SCC) of $1300/ton. Even if the EPA SCC estimates of $190/ton are used, the benefits to local poorer households outweigh the costs only for projects smaller than 95 hectares located where there are more than 25 households per square kilometer.

Research Papers

“Is Afforestation Really Compensatory? Long-Term Effect of Governmental Approval of Deforestation and Accompanied Afforestation on Forest Cover in India” (draft available on request)

Abstract: Numerous countries have designed policies that mandate afforestation to compensate for approved deforestation, however the impact of these mandates on actual forest cover is largely unexplored. Using government data on applications for deforestation in India, I test the causal effects of the approval of deforestation on the forest cover in India at the district level. By using variations in the approval timeline and district-level remote sensing data on forest cover, I find no significant effect on forest cover in the district of approval in the years immediately after the approval. However, there is evidence of a significant reduction in forest cover after 9 years from the year of approval. This points to the fact that compensatory afforestation temporarily equalizes the forest cover but the newly planted forests may not survive in the long term, thus leading to declines in forest cover.

“Diffusion of Machine-harvestable Chickpeas and Implications for Female Labor Markets in India” with Aprajit Mahajan and Swamikannu Nedumaran (draft available on request)

Abstract: Mechanization in agriculture is becoming increasingly common in developing countries, but the impacts of the same on female agricultural labor are not entirely understood in an experimental setting. We use a randomised controlled trial conducted in India to evaluate the impacts of agricultural mechanization induced by the adoption of Machine Harvestable Chickpea (MHC) on local female agricultural workers. Harvester usage is higher for MHC among treatment farmers along with the lowering of costs from using harvesters. We find that the proportion of female agricultural workers engaged in chickpea harvesting and threshing falls in treatment villages. In trying to understand adaptation strategies for female agricultural workers, we find that they engage in agricultural labor at distances further away from their own village, travelling there in larger groups. We also find that females who are decision-makers with respect to household matters and their own work are more likely to remain engaged in chickpea harvesting, pointing to the role of social norms even in a context with depleted opportunities due to mechanization.

Research in Progress

“Studying the Role of Farm-to-School Grants in the Spread of Climate-Smart Practices among Historically Disadvantaged Farmers in California” with Timothy Bowles and Federico Castillo (midline data collection in progress)

Abstract: With the California Department of Food & Agriculture prioritizing climate-smart agriculture and historically disadvantaged groups in their Farm-to-School grants to farmers, these grants have the potential to catalyze an increase in adoption of climate-smart practices among historically disadvantaged farmers. Using data from applicants and their social networks on adoption and exploiting a discontinuity in reviewer scores between grantees and non-grantees, we aim to identify the factors which drive adoption and the barriers to large-scale adoption of climate-smart practices among historically-disadvantaged farmers.

“Paying Smallholder Farmers to Increase Carbon Sequestration by Changing Agricultural Practices” with Aprajit Mahajan and Shuo Yu (piloting completed, starting multi-year RCT)

Abstract: This project incentivizes smallholder farmers in rural India to adopt agricultural practices that improve soil carbon sequestration. We carry out a full RCT that pays farmers as a function of measured improvements in soil organic content in a context with liquidity constraints. The RCT lays the groundwork for developing a larger scale program that links small farmers to commercial firms providing carbon credits. The project will also explore the potential of satellite data to validate the adoption and impact of regenerative agricultural practices, which will be important for any scale-up.

“Testing Models of Payment for Ecosystem Services to Prevent Deforestation in India” (piloting completed, seeking funding for full RCT)

Abstract: Deforestation is a first-order policy concern in developing countries like India along with a lack of adequate resources among owners of forest land, causing a vicious cycle of deforestation and poverty. Payment for ecosystem services (PES) for prevention of deforestation has the potential to solve this dual problem. While its potential has been tested in a number of developing countries, this project attempts to design a PES program to prevent deforestation in the Indian context where infrastructure causes a majority of the deforestation and community-level forest protection has been a proven success.

Past Research 

“Holding Hands Against the Unknown: Using Markov Chains to Model Informal Insurance Arrangements in Developing Societies” (undergraduate senior thesis) (available on request)

“A Coin Box for Health: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Commitment Savings as Health Insurance” with Kartikeya Batra (available on request)

“Helping a Microfinance Institution Select its Clients-A Risk Analysis using Social Networks” with Varunavi Newar (available on request)