Research
Innovation, R&D, and Pharmaceutical Markets
Working Papers
Fostering or Foreclosing? Acquisitions, Control Rights, and Diffusion of Knowledge (with Ruofei Guo)
Abstract: Acquiring a patent can speed an idea’s diffusion or strategically contain it. We study incumbent acquisitions of patented technologies and ask when deals are “acquired to build” versus “acquired to bury.” We develop and estimate a structural model in which firms bid for control and then choose whether to support integration and development or to shelve the technology to avoid cannibalization. The model separates implementation advantages from suppressive incentives and predicts post-acquisition diffusion trajectories and whether acquired knowledge spreads to outside innovators. Counterfactual policy experiments highlight a central trade-off: screening out the most suppressive acquisitions raises diffusion on average, but can also weaken acquisition-based returns and thereby reduce ex ante innovation incentives, potentially discouraging the highest-value breakthroughs.
Dynamic Gains from the Market for Technology: Evidence from Pharmaceutical Licensing
(with Shengmao Cao, Anran Li, and Jingyuan Wang)
Abstract: We estimate the dynamic impact of pharmaceutical licensing on firm-level innovation. Using a matched difference-in-differences design, we show that initial licensing deals lead to a significant increase in future project originations for licensors and licensees, respectively, relative to controls with identical pre-treatment trajectories. These productivity gains are broad-based across therapeutic markets and particularly pronounced for mid-development deals. Our results suggest that licensing and in-house R&D are complements, highlighting a novel channel through which the “market for technology” acts as a catalyst for innovation and growth.
Work in progress
Price Regulation, Generic Competition, and Drug Supply Shortage (with Shengmao Cao)