The EU's challenge is that its goal of energy transition depends on inputs it cannot control, creating a fragile supply chain dependency that exposes it to geopolitical leverage, environmental backlash, and some ethical inconsistency. To go farther you will need some hypothese about the future. For example: Governments are expected to view critical minerals as strategic assets. Export bans, tariffs, and nationalizations will rise. Despite advancements in AI-driven materials science, a large-scale substitute for lithium and cobalt won't emerge by 2030. Countries in the global south will seek tech-for-resource exchanges that incorporate ESG enforcement, moving away from extractive neo-colonial practices. Sould the EU align with china or actually use a hostile China to drive urgent political action in Europe?