Research

Work in Progress

"Undervaluation of Future Fuel Savings and Efficiency Standards for Heavy-Duty Trucks" [working paper]

Fuel efficiency standards are a widely used tool to reduce vehicle emissions, though their welfare implications depend on how much consumers value future fuel savings when they make initial vehicle purchases. This paper is the first to measure the effect of the 2014 U.S. fuel efficiency standards for heavy-duty trucks on consumer welfare, manufacturer profits, and environmental damages. To do so, I estimate a model of demand and supply in the heavy-duty vehicle market. The demand estimates provide empirical evidence that buyers substantially undervalue future fuel savings, likely due to both split incentive problems and incomplete information about vehicle performance. Then, I simulate the manufacturer and buyer responses to the policy and find that internalized welfare costs exceed the environmental benefits. However, because of the considerable undervaluation in the commercial vehicle market and the magnitude of fuel savings associated with the policy, the fuel savings and environmental benefits of the 2014 standard exceed the direct costs to consumers and manufacturers.

"Effects of Zero-Emissions Vehicle Mandates on Automaker Strategies and Sales" (with Kenneth Gillingham and Arthur van Benthem)

"Optimal Allocation of Electric Vehicle Subsidies: Consumer or Dealer (or Both)" (with Thao Duong)

"Incomplete Take-Up of Electric Vehicle Subsidies: Evidence from Connecticut’s CHEAPR Program" (with Thao Duong)

Publications

"Carbon Policy and the Emissions Implications of Electric Vehicles" (with Kenneth Gillingham and Marten Ovaere), Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, forthcoming (2025) [NBER working paper]

"Has Consumer Acceptance of Electric Vehicles Been Increasing? Evidence from Microdata on Every New Vehicle Sale in the United States" (with Kenneth Gillingham, Arthur van Benthem, Mohamed Ali Saafi, and Xin He). AEA: Papers & Proceedings (2023). [Published Version]

"Pricing Indirect Emissions Accelerates Low-Carbon Transition of US Light Vehicle Sector" (with Paul Wolfram, Kenneth Gillingham, and Edgar Hertwich). Nature Communications (2021), 12: 7121. [Published Version (Open Access)]