Publications
The Short-run Policy Constraints of Long-run Expectations -- new version April 2024 (with Marc Giannoni and Bruce Preston), Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming [Old version with additional results. Formerly called the: On the Limits of Monetary Policy]
Abrupt Monetary Policy Change and Unanchoring of Inflation Expectations (with Carlos Carvalho, Marco Bonomo, Marina Parrupato, Daniel Abib, João Ayres and Silvia Matos), forthcoming Journal of Monetary Economics, Technical Appendix, Slides
The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times (With Richard Crump, Marc Giannoni and Aysegul Sahin), forthcoming Journal of Monetary Economics, FRBNY Liberty Economic Blog
A Short History in Defense of Adaptive Learning (with Bruce Preston), Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective, forthcoming.
A Large Bayesian VAR of the US Economy (With Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone, Eric Quian and Argia Sbordone), forthcoming International Journal of Central Banking
The Term Structure of Expectations (With Richard Crump, Emanuel Moench and Bruce Preston), in Handbook of Economic Expectations, Volume 1, 2023, edited by R. Bachmann, G. Topa, and W. van der Klaauw.
Anchored Inflation Expectations (with Carlos Carvalho, Emanuel Moench and Bruce Preston), AEJ Macroeconomics, 15, 2023 [Lead article]
Subjective Intertemporal Substitution (with Richard Crump, Andrea Tambalotti and Giorgio Topa), Journal of Monetary Economics, 126(1), 2022
Non-Rational Beliefs in an Open Economy (with Qingyuan Du and Bruce Preston), Review of Economic Dynamics, 41, 2021
A Unified Approach to Measuring u* (with Richard Crump, Marc Giannoni and Aysegul Sahin), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2019 Slides for BPEA 2019
Fiscal Foundations of inflation: Imperfect Knowledge (with Bruce Preston), American Economic Review, 108(9), 2018
Some Implications of Learning for Price Stability (with Marc Giannoni and Bruce Preston), European Economic Review, 106, 2018
The Science of Monetary Policy: An Imperfect Knowledge Perspective (with Bruce Preston), Journal of Economic Literature, 56(1), 2018
Fundamental Disagreement (with Philippe Andrade, Richard Crump and Emanuel Moench), Journal of Monetary Economics, October, 83, 2016
Consumption Heterogeneity, Employment Dynamics and Macroeconomic Co-movement (with Bruce Preston), Journal of Monetary Economics, April, 71, 2015
When Does Determinacy Imply Learnability? (with James Bullard), International Economic Review, 55(1), 2014
Learning the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Some Consequences of Debt-Management Policy (with Bruce Preston), Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 23(4), 2012
Debt, Policy Uncertainty and Expectations Stabilization (with Bruce Preston), Journal of the European Economic Association, 10(4), 2012
Fitting Observed Inflation Expectations (with Marco Del Negro), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35(12), 2011
Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations (with Bruce Preston), American Economic Review, 101(6), 2011
CONDI: A Cost-of-Nominal-Distorsions Index (with Bart Hobijn and Andrea Tambalotti), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3(3), 2011
Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization, (with Bruce Preston), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(3), 2010
Central Bank Communication and the Liquidity Trap, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(2-3), 2010
A Note on Expectations-Driven Business Cycles in Economies with Production Externalities, International Journal of Economic Theory, 5(1), 2009
Learnability and Monetary Policy: A Global Perspective, Journal of Monetary Policy, 54(4), 2007 (here is the working paper version with a previous title)
The Design of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Global Perspective (with Jess Benhabib), Journal of Economic Theory, 1(123), 2005
Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule? (with James Bullard), Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2), 2005
Other:
The Housing Drag on Core Inflation (with Bart Hobijn and Andrea Tambalotti), Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, April 5, 2010
Policy Initiatives in the Global Recession: What Did Forecasters Expect? (with Carlos Carvalho and Christian Grisse), Current Issues in Economics and Finance (18), 2009