Publications
Publications
Stefani Stefanova, Yoto V. Yotov, Sophie Bandarkar, Applied Economics, 2025
Short abstract: Using disaggregated data and established econometric methods, we re-evaluate the impact of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on international trade amongst its members. In contrast to previous studies, we conclude that, overall, the OECD has not led to increased trade amongst its members. However, we find evidence that the OECD has promoted members’ trade in certain sectors and, more importantly, for certain groups of European countries, i.e. the Visegrád group and the Baltic states, which share common historical and economic characteristics. Based on this, we expect similar positive trade effects for some prospective OECD members.
OECD accession and the Bulgarian economy
Plamen Nenov, Jeffrey Nilsen, Stefani Stefanova, Yoto V. Yotov, Bulgarian Council for Economic Analyses, 2025
Short abstract: This brief assesses the prospective implications of OECD accession for Bulgaria within the broader context of its institutional and economic convergence. Evidence from comparable Eastern European members indicates that accession is typically associated with sustained improvements in rule of law, regulatory quality, and other institutional characteristics. Entry into the framework is further linked to expanded trade volumes and, in some cases, increased foreign direct investment. Overall, the analysis suggests that OECD membership could materially advance Bulgaria’s institutional strengthening and external economic integration, reinforcing the importance of continued alignment with OECD standards.
Sub-regional Innovation Policy Outlook 2020: Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus,
Chapter II, Part I: Innovation performance overview: sub-regional trends and findings (Immanuela Badde, Stefani Stefanova);
Part II: Country-by-country analysis (Jakob Fexer, Dmitry Plekhanov, Stefani Stefanova), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2021
Short abstract: The Innovation Policy Outlook 2020 (IPO) evaluates innovation policies and institutions in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus, providing benchmarks, targeted recommendations, and good practice examples to support reform. By focusing on the institutional drivers of innovation in countries with shared structural and historical characteristics, the IPO complements global indices such as the Global Innovation Index and the Global Competitiveness Index. Its findings aim to inform policy dialogue, guide reform efforts, and support initiatives that advance innovation-led development and the transition to a circular economy.
Skill-Based Quality Upgrading and International Trade
Peter Egger, Stefani Stefanova, Davide Suverato, CEPR Discussion Paper 20851, 2025
Short abstract: We propose a new quantitative trade model in which consumers value quality and monopolistically competitive firms charge variable markups and allocate skill-specific labor between production and quality-upgrading innovation. Building on existing literature that documents frictions in the assessment of imported goods' quality, we model these as non-ad-valorem trade barriers that distort incentives for quality upgrading and find strong evidence of this mechanism in the model's structural estimation. Quantifying the multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model for 26 European economies, we compare counterfactual increases in ad-valorem and non-ad-valorem trade barriers and assess their effects on selection, efficiency, quality, skill premium, and welfare.
Spatial Spillovers of Local Trade Shocks: Estimation and Distributional Consequences
Julian Koller, Stefani Stefanova, MPRA Working Paper, 2025
Short abstract: We propose a novel spatial IV approach to estimate inter-regional employment spillovers from local trade shocks and apply it to the surge of Chinese import competition in the U.S. We find strong spillovers at the local level that substantially reshape the geography of the shock's employment burden. Our results further suggest that these indirect effects propagate through input-output linkages rather than labor mobility. Moreover, we show that our estimates rationalize the roughly 30 percent gap between Autor et al. (2013) and the structural follow-up literature in the aggregate U.S. manufacturing employment decline attributed to Chinese import competition.
Statutory Corporate Tax Burden and Firm Adjustment: Evidence from Switzerland
Stefani Stefanova, 2025