• How much do mandatory minimums matter? - Forthcoming at Journal of Law, Economics and Organization (JLEO)

Abstract: Mandatory minimum sentencing is frequently identified as a potential driver of long sentences among drug offenders. I estimate the causal effect of mandatory minimum (MM) eligibility on federal drug sentencing using a regression discontinuity design with extrapolation to disentangle statutory impacts from prosecutorial selection. I find that MM eligibility increases sentence length uniformly across case types by about 10 months (14%). This includes defendants with low criminal history, indicating limited protection for low-level offenders. To assess which types of cases are affected by selection, I compare extrapolated counterfactual sentence lengths against observed sentences. I find evidence that charging manipulation is localized among minority defendants. These results indicate that racial disparities in MM sentencing are driven by prosecutor charging decisions rather than by features of the MM statute.

Working Paper Link

• Unintended consequences of constraining discretion: Evidence from criminal sentencing (with Andy Yuan)

Abstract: We study how legal actors respond when procedural reforms constrain their discretion. Exploiting a Supreme Court decision that increased the evidentiary burden for sentencing enhancements, we document a sharp decline in enhancement rates. While this change should mechanically reduce average sentence lengths, average sentences instead increase. We find no evidence of prosecutorial adjustment across 13 charging and bargaining outcomes. By contrast, judges respond heterogeneously: more lenient judges increase sentences, while stricter judges reduce them, compressing the distribution of punishment. These results show that constraining one margin of discretion can have unintended consequences when legal actors adapt within the discretion that remains, with important implications for both the level and distribution of punishment.

PDF Link,  Online Appendix 

• Can state laws address discretion-induced disparities? Evidence from traffic stop reforms (with Jacob Meyer)

Abstract: Racial disparities persist in the US criminal justice system. The role of legal actor discretion in generating these disparities has received considerable attention. We examine how broad institutional changes intended to mitigate these disparities affect outcomes by studying laws in Oregon and Virginia that restricted police officers' ability to make certain discretionary traffic stops. Using both administrative traffic stop records and automobile accident data in a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we find that both policies significantly reduced stop activity, without increasing accidents. Reductions in stops were similar across non-White and White drivers in both states, though in Virginia non-White drivers experienced slightly larger declines. While Virginia agencies with disproportionately high pre-period equipment stops of non-White motorists experienced larger reductions in stop activity, these reductions did not accrue especially to non-White motorists. These findings suggest that broad institutional changes can curtail discretionary enforcement activity, but may fall short of achieving targeted reductions.

PDF Link 

• Prosecutorial discretion and outcome disparities (With Andy Yuan) - R&R at American Law & Economics Review (ALER)

Abstract: We examine the causal effects of prosecutors' incentives on racial and gender disparities. Blakely v. Washington 542 U.S. 296 (2004) significantly disincentivized state prosecutors from pursuing sentence enhancements by raising their burdens of proof from "preponderance of evidence'' to "beyond a reasonable doubt.'' Through a regression discontinuity design, we find that a higher burden of proof reduces defendants' likelihood of receiving a sentence enhancement by 47%. Furthermore, we find striking evidence that Blakely eliminated the entire preexisting gender gap of men being 24% more likely to receive sentence enhancements than women. However, we find no evidence suggesting a racial gap of sentence enhancements both pre and post Blakely.

PDF Link

• Untitled Prosecutorial Discretion Paper (with Adam Soliman)
  
  

• Untitled Community Courts Paper (with David Mitre Becerril and Mohamad Alkadry)
  
  

• Prosecutor tradeoffs and race: evidence from a circuit split
  
  

• Physical environment and crime: evidence from streetlight modernization (resting)