• Can state laws address discretion-induced disparities? Evidence from traffic stop reforms (with Jacob Meyer)

Abstract: Racial disparities persist in the US criminal justice system. The role of legal actor discretion in generating these disparities has received considerable attention. We examine how broad institutional changes intended to mitigate these disparities affect outcomes by studying laws in Oregon and Virginia that restricted police officers' ability to make certain discretionary traffic stops. Using both administrative traffic stop records and automobile accident data in a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we find that both policies significantly reduced stop activity, without increasing accidents. Reductions in stops were similar across non-White and White drivers in both states, though in Virginia non-White drivers experienced slightly larger declines. While Virginia agencies with disproportionately high pre-period equipment stops of non-White motorists experienced larger reductions in stop activity, these reductions did not accrue especially to non-White motorists. These findings suggest that broad institutional changes can curtail discretionary enforcement activity, but may fall short of achieving targeted reductions.

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• How much do mandatory minimums matter?

Abstract: Mandatory minimum sentencing is frequently identified as a potential driver of long sentences among drug offenders. I estimate the causal effect of mandatory minimum (MM) eligibility on federal drug sentencing using a regression discontinuity design with extrapolation to disentangle statutory impacts from prosecutorial selection. I find that MM eligibility increases sentence length uniformly across case types by about 10 months (14%). This includes defendants with low criminal history, indicating limited protection for low-level offenders. To assess which types of cases are affected by selection, I compare extrapolated counterfactual sentence lengths against observed sentences. I find evidence that charging manipulation is localized among minority defendants. These results indicate that racial disparities in MM sentencing are driven by prosecutor charging decisions rather than by features of the MM statute.

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• Prosecutor tradeoffs and race: evidence from a circuit split

Abstract: Prosecutors face a tradeoff between gathering evidence and pursuing charges. I examine how differences in evidentiary costs affect racial disparities in charging decisions by exploiting a circuit split in federal drug sentencing rules. Comparing high- and low-cost regimes, I find that mandatory minimum policies reduce preexisting race gaps by lowering penalties for minorities. However, when no gap exists initially, benefits accrue mainly to White defendants, creating disparities. High-cost regimes also show higher pre-policy punishment levels. The findings suggest raising evidence costs can reduce existing disparities but may introduce new ones when race gaps are absent.

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• Prosecutorial discretion and outcome disparities (With Andy Yuan) - R&R at American Law & Economics Review (ALER)

Abstract: We examine the causal effects of prosecutors' incentives on racial and gender disparities. Blakely v. Washington 542 U.S. 296 (2004) significantly disincentivized state prosecutors from pursuing sentence enhancements by raising their burdens of proof from "preponderance of evidence'' to "beyond a reasonable doubt.'' Through a regression discontinuity design, we find that a higher burden of proof reduces defendants' likelihood of receiving a sentence enhancement by 47%. Furthermore, we find striking evidence that Blakely eliminated the entire preexisting gender gap of men being 24% more likely to receive sentence enhancements than women. However, we find no evidence suggesting a racial gap of sentence enhancements both pre and post Blakely.

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• The unintended consequences of changing standard of proof (with Andy Yuan)
  
  

• Untitled Prosecutorial Discretion Paper (with Adam Soliman)
  
  

• Untitled Community Courts Paper (with David Mitre Becerril and Mohamad Alkadry)
  
  

• Physical environment and crime: evidence from streetlight modernization (resting)