United States Naval Institute Proceedings, August 2025; Vol 151/8/1,470
In 2018, the United States Department of Defense transitioned from the high-three retirement system to the blended retirement system. Service members often question whether the new retirement plan was an improvement, and whether the recommended lifecycle funds within the Thrift Savings Plan are the most effective allocation of their retirement account. Both of these questions are dependent on how a service member controls the funds within their Thrift Savings Plan.
This paper explores this new control of retirement funds that is available to service members. Through basic application of portfolio theory, I find the lifecycle funds under the blended retirement system presently generate approximately $42,012 or 1.26% less in retirement earnings to service members in comparison to the previous high-three retirement plan. However, I show the lifecycle funds to be inefficient, accepting an unnecessary volume of risk for every unit of return. I further demonstrate how efficient portfolio allocation may result in a reduction of portfolio risk while increasing service member retirement earnings by $371,516 or 11.17 percent in comparison to the lifecycle funds.
The Financial Education Deficit in Naval Training
With Edward Powley, Karah Jaeb, Greg Mcknight, & Captain Harrison Rosenbaum
United States Naval Institute Proceedings, August 2024; Vol 150/8/1,458
Financial literacy is a hallmark competency of leaders across the military. Personal finance mentorship can be a leadership tool for junior officers, assuming they possess appropriate financial competencies. However, naval officers can be found in ready-rooms, wardrooms, and officer clubs around the fleet comparing stories of financial dismay by not only their subordinates, but also their peers and superiors. Likewise, over-budget and behind-schedule is the reputation that has plagued military procurement. A deficit of financial competencies should come as no surprise, given the lack of financial education the Department of the Navy provides its officer corps. The U.S. Naval Academy is the only service academy to not offer a course of study in finance. This prompted a team of new company officers in the leadership, education, and development (LEAD) master’s program at the Academy to study midshipman financial literacy and compare findings to the fleet. This included the first survey of midshipman financial literacy in recent history, an outreach program to discuss financial literacy with midshipmen, and a comparison of financial training across service academies to identify best practices.
How much is the Port of Baltimore's closure disrupting US trade?
With Sherman Robinson and Karen Thierfelder
Peterson Institute for International Economics, May 2024
The Port of Baltimore closed with the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge on March 26, 2024. Efforts to clear the channel for shipping are ongoing, but logistical disruptions have been, and continue to be, significant. How well will Baltimore’s share of trade be absorbed by the many other ports along the east coast of the United States?
Financial Literacy Amongst High-Performance Leaders: The State of Financial Literacy at the United States Naval Academy
Working Paper
This paper analyzes determinants of financial literacy at the United States Naval Academy using a representative sample of the student population (n=1,303) that demonstrated a comparably high level of financial acumen. Leveraging extant demographic and merit-based data, a series of probit and ordered probit models are used to identify marginal effects of determinants of financial literacy. Results show gender and SAT scores to be strong determinants of financial literacy, while collegiate grade point average (GPA) is also associated with higher levels of financial literacy. While age, specific ethnic groups, and household income are significant predictors when viewed in isolation, their statistical significance largely dissipates when controlling for merit-based variables. However, the gender gap persists even in the presence of merit-based controls, distinguishing gender and academic aptitude as the primary drivers of financial literacy in this high-performance environment. Findings suggest the relationship between financial literacy and household income or socio-economic status may be more complex than previously understood, or limited in explanatory power.
“Standardized Military Financial Literacy Surveillance & Interpretation”
Unpublished Procedural Instruction
This survey is a consolidated list of questions that appear on the FINRA National Financial Capability Study (NFCS) and the Office of People Analytics (OPA) Status of Forces Assessment (SOFA). The two-dimensional interpretation of financial literacy and military investment literacy allows for military training commands and operational units to gauge military readiness. Endorsed and adopted by the USAA Educational Foundation.
Filling the GAAP in Personal Finance: Incorporating Personal Accounting in to Financial Literacy Education
Work in Progress
Financial literacy education has struggled to produce financially literate outcomes. This paper argues for the importance of rudimentary accounting as a critical yet missing component of financial literacy education.
Sunk Shipbuilding Cost Fallacies: Cost Trends and Implications from Department of the Navy Shipbuilding Budget Materials
Work in Progress
This paper analyzes official U.S. Navy Shipbuilding budgets over five year periods of forecasted, appropriated, and adjusted costs. Initial results show substantially increased costs when the quantity of assets procured decreases or increases from the initial budget, with various lag effects. Further statistical analysis shows the US Naval fleet will continue to decline in hull numbers through at least 2032, with the average age of US Naval vessels aging from an average of 13.1 years in 2000 to 17.1 years in 2025.
Measures of Shelter: Housing price comparisons between Military Housing Allowance, Consumer Price Index, and American Community Survey
Work in Progress
This paper compares and contrasts military basic allowance for housing (BAH) data to CPI and ACS housing data in an effort to identify trends and lags between all three federal measures of shelter.
An Examination of State and Local Government Tax and Non-tax Revenues and their Sensitivities to Economic Fluctuations (2023)
Dissertation, Committee: Gary McGill (Co-Chair), Andy Naranjo (Co-Chair), Johannes Impink (Member)
I estimate the responsiveness of U.S. state and local government revenues to changes in gross domestic product (GDP), providing the first sensitivity analysis of several categories of taxation, non-tax revenue, and total revenue to economic fluctuations. Overall, I find that total state and local government revenues are resilient to economic shocks, demonstrating an overall sensitivity of 0.969 in the United States since 1992. I show that state and local government revenues have historically demonstrated a proportionally smaller response to respective changes in GDP during economic recessions, while revenues generated by property tax and the majority of non-tax revenues are indistinguishable between periods of economic growth and recession. A cross-sectional examination of sensitivities indicates states with an above-average share of non-tax revenue exhibit a greater resiliency to economic fluctuations, particularly when state revenue-per-capita is low.