Research

1. Digitalization and the green transition: Different challenges, same policy responses? with Marius Busemeyer and Tobias Tober in Regulation and Governance (2025)

Abstract: How do citizens perceive labor market risks related to digitalization and the green transition, and how do these risk perceptions translate into preferences for social policies? We address these questions in this paper by studying the policy preferences of individual workers on how governments should deal with the two labor market challenges of digitalization and the green transition. Employing novel cross-country comparative survey data including a vignette experiment for six advanced postindustrial economies, we probe to what extent the different labor market challenges are associated with differences in preferences, distinguishing between support for social investment policies on the one hand and compensatory policies on the other. A first finding is that even though individuals perceive different levels of labor market risk due to the green transition and digitalization, their preferences for social policy responses do not differ systematically across the two risks. Instead, we find that social policy preferences are affected by individual-level and, to some extent, country-level contextual factors. Confirming previous work, higher perceived labor market risk is associated with more support for compensatory policies but less support for social investment. 

2. Asymmetric Backlash against Structural Economic Change: The Electoral Consequences of the Coal Phase-out in Germany at European Journal of Political Research (2025)

Abstract: Past research has often attributed electoral backlash to structural economic change to a lack of compensation and interest group representation for affected groups. Is that backlash then mitigated in contexts where both of these conditions are fulfilled? I argue that perceived economic deprivation fuelling political disengagement as well as disappointment with the issue-owning party are important factors contributing to such a backlash. Using the case of Germany, I empirically analyse the electoral repercussions of a coal phase-out in the presence of compensation for affected groups as well as active involvement of labour and business interests in political decision-making. By employing a series of staggered difference-in-differences models, I investigate whether the closures of coal plants and mines between 2007 and 2022 affected voting behaviour at the municipal level. I find that these closures resulted in an asymmetric backlash in the form of lower vote shares for the issue owner, the Social Democratic Party and higher abstention rates in affected municipalities. With the significant politicisation around fossil fuel-based energy generation, these findings have important implications for the remaining coal phase-outs worldwide. 

1. Funding the Future: A Comparative Analysis of Public Spending Preferences on the Green Transition and Digitalization, with Sebastian Koos, R&R 

Abstract: The twin digital and green transition constitutes a major societal challenge in the upcoming decades. To remain competitive, governments need to invest in both transformations. However, budgetary limits constitute trade-offs in addressing both simultaneously. At the same time, both transformations have far-reaching consequences for labour markets, changing and eliminating jobs. Yet, we know very little about citizens’ preferences for relative public spending on the green transition and digitalization and their determinants. Here, we examine the role of subjective labour market risk resulting from these transitions for relative spending preferences across advanced democracies. We argue that individuals might prefer to spend less on the societal transformation they perceive as a job threat (single-pressuredness), while cross-pressuredness by both transitions leads to an equal split. Drawing on novel comparative survey data for six countries, we find a slightly higher willingness to invest in the green transition relative to digitalization. Moreover, individuals prefer to divert investment from the transition they perceive as a threat to their jobs, while cross-pressuredness moves people slightly towards an equal investment.

2. Regional Inequality and Support for Place-Based Policies, with Liam Beiser-McGrath and Muzhou Zhang

Abstract: Regional inequalities within countries have become increasingly relevant for understanding contemporary economic conditions and vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. In response, place-based policies are increasingly seen as a potential solution to address both economic and environmental challenges simultaneously, but potentially risk backlash due to the distributional consequences they entail. This study examines how individuals' preferences for place-based climate and social policies are influenced by awareness of these inequalities and policy design features. Our research design allows us to isolate the effects of information about regional disparities on policy preferences, while also identifying the relative importance of various policy attributes. To do so, we use a combination of an information provision and conjoint experiment in a representative survey of UK residents to examine how individuals' preferences for place-based climate and social policies are shaped by regional climate and economic inequalities and their design. The results find that while individuals' have distinct preferences, cost and funding considerations play a predominant role. We also find that economic concerns broadly outweigh concerns about climate change, both in the targeting of policy and regional variation in demands for intervention. Our results have implications for understanding the development of regional policies to facilitate and manage the green transition and its economic consequences.

3. Green by Knowledge? How Local Knowledge Economies Shape Green Attitudes and Voting Behavior, with Andreas Hövermann

Abstract: The rise of the knowledge economy, fueled by rapid technological change, is transforming societies and labor markets in particular. A crucial implication of the literature examining its political consequences is that the growing knowledge economy contributes to a socially more progressive society by, for instance, fostering support for green policies. We test this proposition by examining whether living in a strong local knowledge economy (LKE) is associated with more support of climate action and Green parties. Moreover, we investigate whether this relationship is driven by compositional effects, i.e. highly educated individuals or those working in knowledge-intensive jobs, or contextual effects through, for instance, better infrastructure and socialization in strong LKEs. We combine individual-level data on support for climate action and voter potential for the Greens from an original survey fielded in Germany in 2021 (N=4,116) with district-level data on the share of employment in the knowledge economy. Our results indicate that, as expected, individuals in strong LKEs have significantly higher support for climate action and higher voter potential for the Greens. Furthermore, we find evidence for compositional effects driving the relationship between living in a strong LKE and support for climate action, while contextual effects seem to explain the positive association between living in a strong LKE and individual voter potential for the Greens. Our findings underscore the importance of the rise of the knowledge economy at the local level in fostering support for the green transition.

1. Who Is Afraid of the Green Transition? Brown Jobs and Labour Market Concern due to the Green Transition in Advanced Democracies, with Sebastian Koos

2. Retraining and Labor Market Inequality in the Green Transition, with Muzhou Zhang