Research

1. Digitalization and the green transition: Different challenges, same policy responses? with Marius Busemeyer and Tobias Tober in Regulation and Governance (2025)

Abstract: How do citizens perceive labor market risks related to digitalization and the green transition, and how do these risk perceptions translate into preferences for social policies? We address these questions in this paper by studying the policy preferences of individual workers on how governments should deal with the two labor market challenges of digitalization and the green transition. Employing novel cross-country comparative survey data including a vignette experiment for six advanced postindustrial economies, we probe to what extent the different labor market challenges are associated with differences in preferences, distinguishing between support for social investment policies on the one hand and compensatory policies on the other. A first finding is that even though individuals perceive different levels of labor market risk due to the green transition and digitalization, their preferences for social policy responses do not differ systematically across the two risks. Instead, we find that social policy preferences are affected by individual-level and, to some extent, country-level contextual factors. Confirming previous work, higher perceived labor market risk is associated with more support for compensatory policies but less support for social investment. 

2. Asymmetric Backlash against Structural Economic Change: The Electoral Consequences of the Coal Phase-out in Germany at European Journal of Political Research (2025)

Abstract: Past research has often attributed electoral backlash to structural economic change to a lack of compensation and interest group representation for affected groups. Is that backlash then mitigated in contexts where both of these conditions are fulfilled? I argue that perceived economic deprivation fuelling political disengagement as well as disappointment with the issue-owning party are important factors contributing to such a backlash. Using the case of Germany, I empirically analyse the electoral repercussions of a coal phase-out in the presence of compensation for affected groups as well as active involvement of labour and business interests in political decision-making. By employing a series of staggered difference-in-differences models, I investigate whether the closures of coal plants and mines between 2007 and 2022 affected voting behaviour at the municipal level. I find that these closures resulted in an asymmetric backlash in the form of lower vote shares for the issue owner, the Social Democratic Party and higher abstention rates in affected municipalities. With the significant politicisation around fossil fuel-based energy generation, these findings have important implications for the remaining coal phase-outs worldwide. 

3. Funding the Future: A Comparative Analysis of Public Spending Preferences on the Green Transition and Digitalization with Sebastian Koos at Journal of Public Policy (2026)

Abstract: The twin digital and green transition constitutes a major societal challenge in the upcoming decades. To remain competitive, governments need to invest in both transformations. However, budgetary limits constitute trade-offs in addressing both simultaneously. At the same time, both transformations have far-reaching consequences for labor markets. Yet, we know very little about citizens’ preferences for relative public spending on both transitions and their determinants. Here, we examine the role of subjective labor market risk resulting from these transitions in shaping relative spending preferences. We argue that individuals might prefer to spend less on the societal transformation they perceive as a job threat (single-pressuredness), while cross-pressuredness by both transitions leads to an equal split. Drawing on novel comparative survey data from six countries, we find that individuals prefer to divert investment from the transition they perceive as a threat to their jobs, while cross-pressuredness moves people slightly towards equal investment. 

1. Regional Inequality and Support for Place-Based Policies, with Liam Beiser-McGrath and Muzhou Zhang, Under Review

2. Green by Knowledge? How Local Knowledge Economies Shape Green Attitudes and Voting Behavior, with Andreas Hövermann, Under Review

3. Beyond Brown Jobs: Heterogeneity among Green Transition Stakeholders, Family Networks, and Radical Right Support, with Susanne Rhein and Viktoria Jansesberger 

4. Retraining and Labor Market Inequality in the Green Transition, with Muzhou Zhang

1. Who Is Afraid of the Green Transition? Brown Jobs and Labour Market Concern due to the Green Transition in Advanced Democracies, with Sebastian Koos